Summary
With the long-awaited entrance of Montana’s popular Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who won his June 2 primary, this once long-shot Senate race is actually competitive. Montana voted for Trump by 20 points in 2016, but the state has an independent streak and reelected Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in 2018, despite an all-out blitz Trump launched against him. While Bullock out-fundraised Sen. Steve Daines in the first quarter of the year, Daines has more money overall and a substantial war chest.
A March poll showed a dead tie, while a more recent Montana State University poll showed Bullock ahead by 5 points. No matter what the outcome is, the race will be extremely close. But Bullock takes the race from being a Republican certainty to a massive question mark.
What are the odds? Cook Political Report rates this a toss-up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Lean Republican.
Vox by Ella Nielsen on June 11, 2020
OnAir Post: Montana – US Senate 2020 Election
News
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) won a second term in the Senate, defeating Gov. Steve Bullock (D) in one of the most competitive races in the country.
The Associated Press called the race for Daines shortly before 2 a.m. EST on Wednesday.
Daines’s victory keeps Republicans in control of a seat Democrats had seen as one of their best pickup opportunities in their quest to gain control of the upper chamber.
Democrats, including Biden, are competitive in a red state, and Bullock is three points behind in the contest the party cares about most.
Republicans hold a narrow lead up and down the ballot in Montana, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll Friday, as Democrats remain highly competitive in a state President Trump won by 20 points in 2016.
Over all, Mr. Trump leads Joe Biden by six points, 49 percent to 43 percent, echoing favorable results for Mr. Biden in Times/Siena surveys of relatively white states across Northern battlegrounds. But in the hotly contested race for U.S. Senate, the Republican senator Steve Daines narrowly leads Gov. Steve Bullock, 49 percent to 46 percent.
Vox, – October 21, 2020
Democrats are within reach of a second Senate seat in Montana.
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Few in Montana feel ready to predict how the high-stakes US Senate battle between Republican Sen. Steve Daines and Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock will play out.
It could be decided by just a few thousand votes.
“I think it’s too close to call right now,” said Montana pollster and University of Montana professor Sara Rinfret.
Montana is often miscast as reliably conservative; rather, the state is fiercely independent. Voters typically back Republican presidential candidates, but down-ballot races often are more competitive. Montana also has a history of sending Democrats to the Senate, a tradition cemented by Sen. Jon Tester’s narrow reelection win in 2018, a bright spot in an otherwise dismal year for Senate Democrats in Republican-leaning states.
“I think most Montanans — and people in most states — are 60-70 percent in the middle,” former Montana Sen. Max Baucus (D) told Vox. “What most people really care about [is] are you trying to do what’s best for us?”
MTN News hosts a debate this Saturday in Montana’s 2020 race for the U.S. Senate between Democratic challenger, Governor Steve Bullock, and the Republican incumbent, Senator Steve Daines.
The debate will air on all MTN stations at 6 p.m. on Saturday; it will also be available to watch on-demand on all MTN streaming apps.
The debate will be moderated by a panel featuring MTN Chief Political Reporter Mike Dennison, Jay Kohn (KTVQ Billings Anchor Emeritus), and Jill Valley (KPAX Missoula/Kalispell Anchor and Reporter).
A new poll of the Montana Senate race, conducted October 5–7 by Emerson, shows Republican incumbent Steve Daines leading his Democratic challenger Steve Bullock by 9 points:
Republicans have been worried about the Montana Senate race because the state has a robust recent history of ticket-splitting. Bullock, the sitting Democratic governor, won reelection in 2016 even as Trump carried Montana by 20 points. Montana’s Democratic senator Jon Tester won reelection in 2012 even as Mitt Romney carried the state by 14 points.
Daines’s improved standing could be a sign that the fight to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court may help Republicans in some red states.
Bridges, who has a house near Livingston, has emerged as a fixture of the campaign season in recent years
Montana Democrats are rolling out “The Dude” again as they seek to burnish the party’s November ticket with some star power and counter GOP heavyweights such as Vice President Mike Pence.
Actor Jeff Bridges, who played The Dude on the cult-classic film “The Big Lebowski” was slated to hold a virtual campaign kickoff event Tuesday with U.S. Senate hopeful Gov. Steve Bullock and other Democratic candidates.
Bridges, who has a house near Livingston, Montana, has emerged as a fixture of the campaign season in recent years. He campaigned for Bullock in 2016 and for Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in 2018, when Trump took a personal interest in defeating Tester and visited the state four times to campaign on behalf of Republican Matt Rosendale.
Inside Climate News, – September 15, 2020
At a Glance:
- Republican Sen. Steve Daines, whose state depends heavily on fossil fuel revenues, says Montana needs to balance environmental protection with an energy economy.
- A task force recently unveiled a report requested by Gov. Steve Bullock, Montana’s Democratic Senate candidate, on proposals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
- Both candidates portray themselves as Montana’s best hope for preserving the state’s outdoor culture in this closely watched, high stakes Senate race.
President Donald Trump leads Democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden by 7 percentage points among likely voters in Montana, a state Trump won by 20 percentage points four years ago, according to a survey in the state commissioned by the AARP.
The poll also found Republican U.S. Sen. Steve Daines with a 3 percentage-point lead, a statistical tie, over Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who seeks Daines’ seat. The dead heat grew even closer among voters ages 50 and older, who favored Bullock, 49%-48%.
The novel coronavirus permeated much of the first debate between incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines and Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock in this fall’s U.S. Senate race.
In the forum held remotely, the candidates both pointed at their responses to the pandemic while chipping away at what they called the other’s shortcomings.
Daines also repeatedly tried to paint Bullock as in cahoots with Democratic leadership in Congress, lawmakers who are often vilified by Republicans. Bullock responded by saying it’s his name on the ballot next to Daines’.
USA Today, – August 5, 2020
The claim: Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., started factories for a company in China while the company shut down plants and slashed jobs in the United States
A video posted to Facebook by the page Steve Daines: China’s Cheerleader — whose confirmed owner is the Montana Democratic Party, according to page transparency information provided by Facebook — questions the time Daines worked in China.
Based on our research, the claims in the video about Daines are PARTLY FALSE. It’s true that Daines worked for Procter & Gamble in Hong Kong and China in the 1990s and that the company slashed American jobs during that time. But there’s no evidence that P&G’s expansion into China was linked to cuts in the United States, and Daines was not part of the corporate decision-making process that led to the cuts.
It’s also true that the Daines has been called “China’s ambassador in Congress” — one time, in 2017, by the Chinese ambassador to the U.S. But that stems from his work as a senator and is unrelated to his work for P&G in China in the 1990s, as the video’s caption presents.
Steve Daines
Current Position: US Senator since 2015
Affiliation: Republican
Candidate: 2020 US Senator
In 2000, Steve took on the role of VP at RightNow Technologies, a Bozeman-based cloud computing start-up company. The company grew rapidly and became a publicly traded software company with 17 offices around the world, and products in over 30 languages. The company was acquired by Oracle in 2012 and remains one of Montana’s largest commercial employers.
In the U.S. Senate, Daines is working on issues of critical importance to growing good-paying Montana jobs, developing our state’s energy resources, managing and protecting our public lands and supporting the needs of Montana’s veterans and tribes. He serves on the Senate Committees on Finance, Appropriations, Energy and Natural Resources, and Indian Affairs.
For more information about Steve Daines, see his post.
Steve Bullock
Current Position: Governor since 2012
Affiliation: Democrat
Candidate: 2020 US Senator
Steve Bullock has spent his life fighting for Montana families to make sure all Montanans have a fair shot at a better future. Before he entered public service, Steve worked as a consumer protection, small business, and labor lawyer and helped lead the fight to raise Montana’s minimum wage. Steve was elected Attorney General and fought the corrupting influence of money in politics by bringing the first legal challenge to the landmark campaign finance case known as Citizens United all the way to the Supreme Court. He also fought to protect access to public lands and streams.
For more information about Steve Bullock, see his post.
Issues
Democracy
Steve Daines
N/A
Steve Bullock
Governor Bullock has been called “the biggest threat to Citizens United,” and has spent his career fighting to keep dark money out of politics. He continues to champion measures to increase transparency in elections.
As Governor of Montana, he proposed and passed legislation in 2019 to ban spending and contributions in Montana elections by foreign governments, foreign corporations, and foreign nationals. In 2015, he led a bipartisan crackdown on dark money, working with the Montana Legislature to pass the Montana DISCLOSE Act, one of the strongest campaign finance disclosure laws in the nation. Any group spending money or resources intended to influence an election within 60 days of when voting begins must disclose how they are spending that money and its source.
In 2018, Governor Bullock issued a first-in-the-nation dark money executive order requiring government contractors to disclose secret spending. Governor Bullock also sued the IRS and the US Department of Treasury, and won, over their decision to abandon disclosure requirements for major donors to dark money groups.
See post for more info.
Economy
Steve Daines
After passing the largest tax cuts in our nation’s history, our economy is booming. The unemployment rate in the United States is at an all time low, and small businesses across Montana and the country are seeing their businesses grow like never before. With this economic growth, Montanans are landing good-paying jobs that allow them to provide a better life and future for their families for generations to come.
While much progress has been made, there is still much left to accomplish. I will continue to work to reduce regulation on our small businesses and entrepreneurs, and tackling our nation’s escalating debt crisis. I will also continue support efforts to increase production of American-made energy and natural resources in Montana and throughout our country. Further, I believe Congress should repeal Obamacare and all of its job-crushing tax and regulatory burdens. With these actions, Congress would lay a foundation where Americans can continue to create and find good-paying jobs.
Steve Bullock
Economy & Fiscal Responsibility
Governor Bullock knows it’s impossible to have a truly strong economy without exercising fiscal responsibility. Under the Governor’s leadership, the state pension system was fixed at no cost to taxpayers. Governor Bullock spearheaded putting the state’s checkbook online, contributing to transparency and accountability in government.
Governor Bullock cut the business equipment tax for every Montana business, and eliminated it for 2/3 of the businesses operating in the state. Over 15,000 small businesses have expanded their footprint through economic development tools during Governor Bullock’s tenure. These economic gains have extended into Montana’s Native American reservations, through the Indian Equity Fund, which has funded nearly 120 businesses and retained 220 jobs in the last six years.
A strong economy requires collaboration between public and private sectors. That’s why Governor Bullock launched Main Street Montana Project in 2013, in an unprecedented partnership between the state government and private sectors to remove barriers to economic growth. The Main Street Montana Project 2.0 – Rural Partners Initiative – is currently focused on bringing economic opportunity to rural communities through partnerships.
See post for more info.
Education
Steve Daines
It is critical we equip our children with the tools they need to become our nation’s future leaders. Education is key to building a globally competitive economy.
Steve Bullock
Quality Public Education for All Montana Students
Governor Bullock believes public education is our great equalizer and is committed to ensuring that all Montana students, from preschool to higher ed, have the educational opportunities to succeed in today’s economy and in the future.
Montana now invests over $175 million more each year in K-12 BASE Aid than when Governor Bullock first took office in 2013. At a time when most states suffered a decline in investment, Montana made record investments in higher education; it is one of ten states spending more per student on higher education since the recession.
Governor Bullock built on the success of dual enrollment programs by launching the “1-2-Free” Dual Enrollment program in 2018, allowing high school students to take their first two college classes entirely for free. In the first year, students and families saved over $7.2 million in tuition costs, and students from more than 150 schools in Montana took some form of dual enrollment, leading to a 25% boost in the number of credits taken. Nearly 8,000 students participated in dual enrollment during the 2018-2019 school year, more than doubling since 2014.
See post for more info.
Environment
Steve Daines
As a fifth-generation Montanan, I know the importance our state’s natural resources to our way of life. Natural Resources are an engine to our economy and to job creation. Our pristine glacial peaks and rivers, vibrant forests, wide-open spaces, and rich mineral and energy deposits earn beautiful Montana its name—the Treasure State.
Steve Bullock
Public Lands and Outdoor Recreation
Governor Bullock fights to preserve and expand access to public lands across Montana and will always ensure that public lands stay in public hands. During his tenure as Governor, he secured an additional 118,000 acres of conservation through Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks-affiliated projects. He also collaborated with federal and nonprofit partners as well as private landowners on contributions to Montana’s Wildlife Management Areas and conservation easements, safeguarding wildlife habitat while honoring that working lands must stay in production.
Governor Bullock established initiative Parks in Focus in order to ensure our state parks can keep pace with growing number of visitors and are protected for generations to come. He also established the Forests in Focus initiative to encourage healthy forests and fuel reductions. Alongside other Western Governors, Bullock led a multi-state effort to ensure effective management of the Greater Sage Grouse. By restoring funding to the successful Habitat Montana program, Governor Bullock protects and enhances wildlife habitat across the state while supporting conservation-minded ranchers and farmers.
See post for more info.
Health Care
Steve Daines
I support full repeal of Obamacare. This law imposes a heavy tax and regulatory burden on American families and small businesses. It has already caused millions of Americans to lose the health care plans they liked and doctors that they trusted. It has also led to higher health costs and higher premiums, and drastically increased federal spending by subsidizing health coverage for millions of Americans. I believe Obamacare’s government-centered approach represents the wrong solution for the health care challenges in our country.
While Obamacare is not the solution, I certainly recognize that our health care system has major problems. First and foremost, I believe doctors and patients, not insurance companies or the government, should be in charge of health care decisions. Next, I believe we must always protect those with preexisting conditions. I believe Congress should provide people with greater freedom in shopping for health insurance, make the costs of medical care more transparent, and reward innovation in the delivery of health services. I will also back commonsense medical liability reform, because doctors currently must practice high-cost “defensive medicine” to protect themselves against unwarranted lawsuits.
Steve Bullock
Affordable and Accessible Health Care
In 2019, Governor Bullock signed into law a sweeping package of health care bills, including the reauthorization of Medicaid expansion, three bills aimed at lowering prescription drug prices, and legislation to increase access to medical, mental health, and substance use treatments. With this legislation package, Governor Bullock enabled tribal communities to license and use community health workers in Indian Health Service facilities to improve access to care. Governor Bullock also passed and received federal approval of a reinsurance waiver to lower healthcare premiums by 9%, saving Montanans and estimated $31.3 million.
Medicaid expansion preserves access to physical and mental health care for nearly 1 in 10 Montanans including nearly 15,000 American Indians and 10,000 veterans and their families. Governor Bullock knows Montanans must be able to receive care in their own communities, especially in rural areas; Medicaid expansion is a lifeline for rural hospitals and health clinics. Governor Bullock also improved Medicaid, adding autism coverage for all Medicaid eligible children in Montana.
By establishing Big Sky Care Connect as the statewide health information exchange, Governor Bullock gave providers access to real-time patient data to improve quality of care while reducing healthcare costs.
See post for more info.
Immigration
Steve Daines
I am committed to ensuring that the federal government effectively protects Americans from terrorism, drug trafficking, cyber attacks, and other crime, while safeguarding our liberties and privacy. In Montana, our communities are being torn apart Mexican meth that is flowing in through our Southern border. This is an issue folks all over our state are dealing with, and it must stop.
Securing our southern border is a matter of national security. The increase in illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and human smuggling is unacceptable. I will support whatever is necessary to secure our borders – including by building a border wall.
Steve Bullock
N/A
Infrastructure
Steve Daines
Transportation and Infrastructure
Across Montana’s 56 counties, our state’s roads, bridges, railways, pipelines, waterways and runways are vital to the prosperity of local communities. Our state’s transportation system promotes economic growth and secures our quality and way of life in Montana, but especially across our rural communities. As Chair of the Senate Western Caucus, I’ve pushed hard for strong and secure infrastructure across our state and I will continue to do so to drive economic growth.
Steve Bullock
Governor Bullock recognizes that making sustainable investments in critical infrastructure and putting shovels in the ground is essential to our continued economic growth and to the creation and support of good-paying jobs for Montanans. In 2019, he passed the first comprehensive statewide bond package in over a decade; this package includes funding for sewer, water, bridges, buildings and other public work projects. These bonds were sold in April 2020 at a historically low interest rate of 1.56%, and the projects will begin as soon as it is safe to do so.
Under Governor Bullock’s tenure during the 2013-2017 legislative sessions, $232 million has been invested in local communities across the state to make infrastructure upgrades to drinking water, wastewater and sewer systems, solid waste disposal, schools and bridges. Over $60 million has been invested in infrastructure upgrades for the Montana University System, including for the construction of Missoula College and the Automotive Technology Center at MSU-Northern. All 56 counties of Montana have benefitted from these infrastructure investments.
See post for more info.
Safety
Steve Daines
We must support the brave Americans stationed abroad who work tirelessly to keep our nation and world safe. We must also maintain a strong partnership with our greatest ally in the Middle East, Israel. As your Senator, I have had the opportunity to visit with foreign leaders in Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Afghanistan, and witnessed firsthand the turmoil in the Middle East. Hearing directly from the leaders of these nations reaffirms the importance of our relationship with Israel and having a coherent strategy in the region.
Steve Bullock
N/A
Veterans
Steve Daines
Montana has a rich legacy of service, and I’m proud to represent our state’s veterans in Congress. I’m dedicated to ensuring that our veterans receive the care and benefits that they fought for and greatly deserve.
As the son of a United States Marine, I believe the United States must honor the commitment we’ve made to the men and women of the armed forces, active duty troops and older veterans alike. While we can never repay the debt we owe to those who fight for our freedoms, we must ensure that we uphold the promises we’ve made. I’m dedicated to opening up new employment prospects for returning service members, improving medical care for wounded warriors, and ensuring support for veterans in need of assistance.
Steve Bullock
Seniors and Veterans
Governor Bullock believes that protecting our nation’s veterans is one of his most important roles as Commander in Chief of the Montana National Guard. Since becoming Governor, Bullock has consistently expanded funding and programs for veterans, working to expand economic, health, and educational opportunities to honor their service.
Governor Bullock launched HELP-Vets, a targeted outreach effort to ensure veterans are able to receive expanded access to healthcare through Medicaid expansion. Up to 7,000 veterans to date have received healthcare from this initiative. He also extended the Montana State Employee Assistance Program to every veteran in the state, delivering a set of no-cost health services to Montana’s veterans and National Guardsmen and women.
Montana’s service men and women face numerous challenges, and Governor Bullock recognizes it is his role to ensure they receive professional support and care. He spearheaded the investment of $3.5 million legislative and federal dollars into suicide prevention work, including many programs that directly assist veterans.
See post for more info.
