The 2024 presidential campaign’s home stretch kicks off with a mixed outlook across six key battlegrounds, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in each state. Vice President Kamala Harris holds an advantage over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump has the edge in Arizona. The two split likely voters almost evenly in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the state with the largest electoral vote prize that’s widely seen as up for grabs.

Across each of them, an average of 15% of likely voters say they have not yet firmly decided their choice, suggesting a sizable share of voters could shift their views on the race as attention to the campaign rises and campaign activity, especially in these states, hits a fever pitch in the final nine weeks before Election Day.

Likely voters in Wisconsin break 50% for Harris to 44% for Trump, and in Michigan, it’s 48% Harris to 43% Trump. In Arizona, Trump lands at 49% to Harris’ 44%. In Georgia and Nevada, 48% back Harris to 47% for Trump, and in Pennsylvania, the candidates are tied at 47%.

Harris and Trump are running neck-and-neck. That very closeness is leading both candidates to embrace an almost comical degree of flexibility on policy

On the contrary, the reality of the past decade of American politics has been precisely this: An intense and often deranging political standoff and war of attrition over inches of electoral territory. That reality seemed like it would be ended by a decisive Biden victory in 2020. But his 4.5-point national popular vote win translated into an extremely narrow victory in the Electoral College.

And then it seemed like 2024 might end the standoff in the other direction, with a sweeping Biden loss and Trump’s most decisive win yet. But that, too, was not to be. Harris taking over as the Democratic nominee has seemingly put us right back where we were in 2016 and 2020—with the two parties desperately jockeying for position and hoping to prevail by a nose in a photo-finish.

And that’s where the unreality comes in.

On Tuesday, Brian announced that he was returning to CNN in the role of “Chief Media Analyst.” Of his return, he wrote:

The media industry has matured, CNN has evolved, and I have changed a lot since I signed off two years ago. I loved my old life as the anchor of a Sunday morning show but, to borrow some lingo from my video game blogger days, I finished that level of the game. Time for new levels, new challenges.

On the most basic level, this makes me happy. Brian is a friend and he will make CNN, a place where I still have a ton of friends, better. This is a good thing for journalism.

On a deeper level, I think there are some lessons to be learned from Brian’s arc over the past two years.

Lots of establishment Republicans believe that the best way for the GOP to get back to its conservative roots is for Donald Trump to lose the election this fall.

1. Donald Trump isn’t going anywhere. If he loses in the fall, there’s a 0% chance that he will concede. Trump has already said that the only way he can lose this election is if Democrats cheat him out of it. Do you think he is suddenly going to have an election night conversion and admit he lost fair and square?

2. The base of the party doesn’t have any interest in a return to the past. The smartest quote in the Politico piece comes from longtime GOP strategist Terry Sullivan: “You’re assuming Republicans have a top of the ticket problem and not a voter base problem. It’s not like our leaders have been leading the voters to the wilderness against the voters’ judgment.”

Poll question
Nine weeks from today – November 6, the date after final voting – will we know the election winner?

Selection of Smerconish Daily Headlines

Major Ukraine Government Shuffle, Al Jazeera
About a third of the positions in Zelenskyy’s presidential cabinet are now vacant as top Ukrainian government officials resign, with one aide being fired. Zelenskyy has shuffled around positions since the onset of the war in 2022, but these changes follow a recent barrage of counterattacks from Russia.

Trump Can’t Use “Hold On, I’m Coming”, CBS News
A judge ruled that the Trump campaign must stop using Isaac Hayes’ song “Hold On, I’m Coming” after a lawsuit from Hayes’ estate over unauthorized use and potential false endorsement.

U.S. Charges Hamas Leaders, BBC
The U.S. has charged Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and others with crimes, including the murder of US citizens and use of weapons of mass destruction, related to the 7 October attack.

Luntz: The Debate Is Everything, The Hill
Republican pollster Frank Luntz believes the upcoming Harris-Trump debate is crucial, as voters will assess not only their policy positions but also their demeanor and body language.

Brian Stelter Returns To CNN, Variety
Brian Stelter will rejoin CNN as Chief Media Analyst and will relaunch the Reliable Sources newsletter on September 9, after his show was canceled in 2022.

What We Learn From HS Yearbook Photos, NPR
Economists analyzed 14.5 million high school yearbook photos to track fashion trends from 1930 to 2010, uncovering shifts in style, regional differences, and individuality over the decades.