They were sons, daughters, brothers and sisters to a nation. Little wonder Saturday’s discovery of six hostages killed in Gaza has Israelis’ blood boiling.

The nation feels on a cusp of a major turning point.

Gripped by swelling protests and labor union strikes, the weeks ahead for Israel are unpredictable. These well-tested democratic tools of change have toppled governments before, but it’s best to remember that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a political survivor extraordinaire.

Even now, Netanyahu and the hard-right nationalist members of his cabinet are working to shut down the legal protests and strikes through a court order, that seemed in the short term at least to have been successful.

Gaza cease-fire negotiations aren’t progressing the way U.S. officials had hoped.

Despite optimism earlier this month that a deal was close, U.S. and Israeli officials now say they are increasingly pessimistic that a deal will soon be reached.

The deaths of six hostages in Gaza over the weekend have some officials worried that the progress negotiators made in recent weeks will be blunted in the coming days by what they forecast will be strong retaliation from Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. They worry tensions between Israel and Hamas will only increase, potentially stalling negotiations.

Why Harris is leading in our polling averages — but not in our forecast. And why it’s hard to know where we’re headed next.

The race has never been in a “steady state” since the Biden debate
What’s made this race uniquely challenging to forecast is that there hasn’t really been a slow news cycle since the debate on June 28. In rapid succession, we had: the debate, an incredible pressure campaign by Democrats to get Biden to drop out, the assassination attempt against Trump, Trump naming JD Vance as his running mate, the Republican convention, Biden dropping out, Harris securing the nomination overnight, Harris naming Tim Walz as her running mate, the Democratic convention, and then Kennedy dropping out.

In principle, you could say something like: let’s look at the polls from back when things were “normal”, ignore what they say immediately after one of these “crazy” events, and then wait for them to settle down again. (In fact, as I’ll explain below, the model sort of attempts to do this.) But it’s hard to know what counts as “normal” in this election:

They were sons, daughters, brothers and sisters to a nation. Little wonder Saturday’s discovery of six hostages killed in Gaza has Israelis’ blood boiling.

The nation feels on a cusp of a major turning point.

Gripped by swelling protests and labor union strikes, the weeks ahead for Israel are unpredictable. These well-tested democratic tools of change have toppled governments before, but it’s best to remember that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a political survivor extraordinaire.

Even now, Netanyahu and the hard-right nationalist members of his cabinet are working to shut down the legal protests and strikes through a court order, that seemed in the short term at least to have been successful.

Gaza cease-fire negotiations aren’t progressing the way U.S. officials had hoped.

Despite optimism earlier this month that a deal was close, U.S. and Israeli officials now say they are increasingly pessimistic that a deal will soon be reached.

The deaths of six hostages in Gaza over the weekend have some officials worried that the progress negotiators made in recent weeks will be blunted in the coming days by what they forecast will be strong retaliation from Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. They worry tensions between Israel and Hamas will only increase, potentially stalling negotiations.

They were sons, daughters, brothers and sisters to a nation. Little wonder Saturday’s discovery of six hostages killed in Gaza has Israelis’ blood boiling.

The nation feels on a cusp of a major turning point.

Gripped by swelling protests and labor union strikes, the weeks ahead for Israel are unpredictable. These well-tested democratic tools of change have toppled governments before, but it’s best to remember that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a political survivor extraordinaire.

Even now, Netanyahu and the hard-right nationalist members of his cabinet are working to shut down the legal protests and strikes through a court order, that seemed in the short term at least to have been successful.

Gaza cease-fire negotiations aren’t progressing the way U.S. officials had hoped.

Despite optimism earlier this month that a deal was close, U.S. and Israeli officials now say they are increasingly pessimistic that a deal will soon be reached.

The deaths of six hostages in Gaza over the weekend have some officials worried that the progress negotiators made in recent weeks will be blunted in the coming days by what they forecast will be strong retaliation from Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. They worry tensions between Israel and Hamas will only increase, potentially stalling negotiations.

Why Harris is leading in our polling averages — but not in our forecast. And why it’s hard to know where we’re headed next.

The race has never been in a “steady state” since the Biden debate
What’s made this race uniquely challenging to forecast is that there hasn’t really been a slow news cycle since the debate on June 28. In rapid succession, we had: the debate, an incredible pressure campaign by Democrats to get Biden to drop out, the assassination attempt against Trump, Trump naming JD Vance as his running mate, the Republican convention, Biden dropping out, Harris securing the nomination overnight, Harris naming Tim Walz as her running mate, the Democratic convention, and then Kennedy dropping out.

In principle, you could say something like: let’s look at the polls from back when things were “normal”, ignore what they say immediately after one of these “crazy” events, and then wait for them to settle down again. (In fact, as I’ll explain below, the model sort of attempts to do this.) But it’s hard to know what counts as “normal” in this election:

The campaign has been confusing the issue. Here’s some clarity.

1. Arlington is a special kind of cemetery — even more than you might think.

2. Arlington does not allow the grounds to be used for politics.

3. Trump’s team violated the rules.

4. Gold Star families can’t change the rules.

5. These rules matter most in Section 60.

Election Day is 63 days from today. Nine weeks, people!

And the path ahead is relatively clear: It’s going to be an absolute bloodbath.

This, from the Washington Post, speaks to that reality:

Donald Trump’s team is approaching the final nine weeks of the presidential campaign as a race to drag Kamala Harris down.

Americans’ views of the Republican nominee have barely budged over the past nine years, spanning three White House bids, two impeachments, an insurrection, four indictments and an assassination attempt. He remains deeply divisive, with enthusiastic support and intense opposition.

President Joe Biden was also broadly unpopular, but now Trump faces Harris, whose favorability rating is roughly even. An ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday found that 46 percent of likely voters viewed Harris favorably versus 43 percent unfavorably, while Trump’s ratings were 33 percent to 58 percent.

With little chance of improving Trump’s standing, Trump’s advisers see the only option as damaging hers.

Chris Cillizza: Do you consider yourself to be a “Never Trumper”? Why or why not? And, relatedly, what does that term mean to you?

Steve Hayes: Sure, I consider myself a “Never Trumper.” My explanation is pretty simple. When the term first appeared in 2016, it referred to a group of conservatives who vowed they would never vote for Trump. I’ll never support Donald Trump, under any circumstances.

But while I consider myself a Never Trumper, I don’t often use it to describe myself. When I hear the term now, I think of a relatively small group of political activists working to defeat Trump – people who are out raising money, building coalitions, making ads, organizing, getting voters to the polls, etc. Groups like The Lincoln Project and the Republican Accountability Project, among others.

That’s not my lane. With the exception of a one-week internship at the 1996 Republican Convention and two months on a California ballot initiative (Proposition 209, also in 1996), I have stayed far away from electoral politics. I was registered Republican for a while, mostly to vote in primaries. But I’m not a party guy. I’m a journalist, not a political activist.

Poll question
Which is a better response by Israel after Hamas’ execution of 6 hostages: engage in cease-fire, or end negotiations and use more military force?

Selection of Smerconish Daily Headlines

Hostage Deaths Push Israel to Brink, NBC News
The recent deaths of six hostages in Gaza have triggered unprecedented protests and a nationwide strike in Israel, potentially marking a critical turning point in the country’s ongoing conflict.

UK Suspends Some Arms Sales to Israel, Reuters
Britain will suspend 30 of its 350 arms export licenses with Israel because there was a risk such equipment might be used to commit violations of international humanitarian law.

Biden Says Bibi Not Doing Enough, The Hill
President Biden criticized Netanyahu for not doing enough to secure a hostage deal, stating “No” when asked if the PM was making sufficient efforts, but added that negotiations are “very close.”

Migrants Are 75% of Midtown Arrests, New York Post
Migrants now account for 75% of Midtown Manhattan arrests, overwhelming NYC’s justice system, as sanctuary city laws hinder police from working with ICE and tracking immigration statuses.