Francis Fukuyama is a political scientist, author, and the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. Among Fukuyama’s notable works are The End of History and the Last Man and The Origins of Political Order. His latest book is Liberalism and Its Discontents. He is also the author of the “Frankly Fukuyama” column, carried forward from American Purpose, at Persuasion.

In this week’s conversation, Yascha Mounk and Francis Fukuyama discuss how Trump’s 2024 victory repudiates the racial grievance theory of 2016; what a second Trump administration will mean for the rule of law at home and abroad; and the lessons the Democratic Party must learn from its defeat.

Identity politics. Wokeness. And what’s next.

March 14, 2020 – the day that set us on a course to where we are today.

When Joe Biden made the transparently political promise in a Sunday evening debate with Bernie Sanders that he would choose a woman vice presidential nominee, it was a tactical gambit steeped in identity politics. With this transactional appeal to the progressive left, Biden traded his responsibility to choose the most qualified potential heir for, instead, a smoother path to the nomination that was likely his before the promise was even made.

This is not to say that there are no qualified women who could assume the presidency. But when it became clear that Kamala Harris could check two boxes (gender and person of color) rather than one, she became an irresistible choice.

1 big thing: Most powerful Republican of the modern era

2. 🦾 The most powerful (unelected) man ever

3. 🏛️ Hill leaders close to Trump

4. 💥 Trump’s next Situation Room

5. 📊 Charted: Trump’s battleground boom
 

He accomplished a partisan realignment that’s been in the making for nearly a decade

I have an op-ed in The New York Times today, giving my first-cut take on why Kamala Harris lost the election so decisively. That’s a gift link, so you don’t need to be a NYT subscriber to read it.

But the decisive defeat of the Harris campaign strategy has its own dimension — and it is not just the consequence of a fleeting bad vibe in the country or the world. For years and even decades, overwhelming majorities of Americans have been telling pollsters that they are unhappy about the direction of the country and much else besides. By portraying herself as the defender and champion of the country’s governing establishment against Donald Trump’s anti-system impulses and diatribes, she placed herself, fatally, on the wrong side of public opinion.

Many Americans have lost their trust in government. Democrats need to be at the forefront of helping to earn back that trust. The first step toward doing so, like an effort to overcome an addiction, must be admitting there’s a problem. If this week’s painful drubbing at the polls has that effect on the party, it may well prove to have a salutary effect.

A shifting demographic: Trump’s election to a second non-consecutive term instantly rewrote the playbook for pursuing the Hispanic electorate, burying immigration and identity politics as gateway issues for the Latino vote. Tuesday’s election belied the mantra of a monolithic Hispanic community, making evident gaps that outweighed any considerations of Latino identity.

Inflation — not immigration reform — was the No. 1 issue for Latinos this year. Trump deftly targeted Hispanics and it helped him win the Electoral College and the popular vote. Democrats will have to do their own autopsy report. Answering why Latinos are fleeing the party should be the first question they analyze

Many Republicans have been turned off from “the AI safety movement” because they see it as a progressive cultural cause, or another effort at “big tech censorship.” And right now, they are not wholly wrong. AI safety and risk management “guidance” from the administration, and some proposed and enacted state laws, really do push a progressive cultural agenda on AI. That’s what happens when you make everything about everything else.

It will take effort, statesmanship, and, probably, compromise to achieve anything like the outcome I’m describing. But the political dynamics under a Republican administration permit focused work on major AI risks in a way that they simply do not under a Democratic administration. Whether the AI safety movement, which is largely mood affiliated with the left, can seize that opportunity is another question altogether. Can they forge narrow and tactical alliances on specific issues? Or is everything about everything to them, too?

One striking pattern hidden in the election results
“My suspicion is that Harris’s electoral struggles were more about Biden’s unpopularity and her association with his administration than any newfound love of the American public for the Republican Party generally,” writes senior correspondent Andrew Prokop.

Donald Trump ran a campaign for men. It worked.
Trump specifically sought to get young men of all races and men without a college education to the polls, writes senior features correspondent Marin Cogan. It was a risky strategy because the voters Trump was seeking have historically been among the most difficult to mobilize. But there are many reasons why male voters have been dissatisfied in recent years and might have been receptive to his messaging.

The global trend that pushed Donald Trump to victory
More people voted this year than ever before, writes senior correspondent Zack Beauchamp. And across the world, voters told the party in power — regardless of their ideology or history — that it was time for a change. In that way, Trump’s win may not been all that exceptional.

Chart, from the Financial Times, tells that story in stark terms

Yes, you are reading that right: Trump improved on his 2020 showing in 48 of the 50 states. And in many heavily Democratic states — California, New York, Illinois — he improved by LARGE numbers.

This wasn’t just Trump running it up in rural counties — although he absolutely did that. He over-performed in the suburbs. In the cities. In blue states. In red states. Everywhere.

Which tells us two things:

1. Trumpian populism cuts across traditional party lines in a very powerful way
2. Democrats have a massive brand problem — even in places, like big cities, that were long considered strongholds for them

Why did people vote for Trump?
To this end, I have attended Trump rallies, populist and nonpartisan events and meetings where Democrats and Republicans connect and talk. Along the way, I have spoken with Trump supporters ranging from the Make America Great Again, or MAGA, faithful to moderate “hold the nose and vote for him” conservatives.

And indeed, many on the left fail to understand who Trump voters are and how they vary. Trump’s base cannot simply be dismissed as racist “deplorables,” as Hillary Clinton famously said in 2016, or as country bumpkins in red MAGA hats. Trump voters trend older, white, rural, religious and less educated. But they include other groups, including Latinos and male voters.

Many people have thoughtful reasons for voting for Trump, even if their reasoning – as is also true for those on the left – is often inflamed by populist polarizers and media platforms.

Here are five key lines of reasoning that, in varying combinations, informed the choices of Trump voters.

1. Media distortion

Where those on the left see Trump’s many failings, those on the right may see what some political observers call Trump Derangement Syndrome, sometimes simply called TDS.

According to this argument, the left-leaning media dissects Trump’s every word, and the media then distorts what he says. I have found that some Trump supporters think that people who feed too much on this allegedly biased media diet can get TDS and develop a passionate, perhaps illogical dislike of Trump.

I have also heard hardcore Trump supporters argue, with no evidence, that “fake news” media outlets, like CNN, are part of a larger deep state plot of the federal government to upend the will of the people. This plot, according to those who propagate it, includes not just leftists, government bureaucrats and people who claim to be Republicans but really aren’t, but also people in law enforcement.

Some Trump supporters also see merit in his contention that he is being wrongly persecuted, just as some see the Jan. 6 defendants being persecuted.

2. Bread on the table, money in the bank

“Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

For many Trump voters, the answer to Ronald Reagan’s famous question is clear: “No.”

They accurately remember Trump’s term as one of tax cuts, economic growth and stock market highs.

It is true that overall employment numbers and average pay went up under President Joe Biden. But for some Trump supporters, that economic boost pales in comparison to the massive surge in inflation during Biden’s term, with prices rising almost 20%. While the inflation rate has recently abated, prices remain high – as voters are reminded every day at the grocery store.

At the end of the 2024 campaign, polls showed Trump with a strong lead over Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris on how to handle the economy. The economy was a top concern for voters, especially Republicans, and ultimately drove many voters to Trump.

3. A border invasion

Another reason some Americans voted for Trump: immigration.

Like inflation, the number of people illegally crossing the border soared under Biden.

This massive influx of “illegal aliens,” as Trump calls them, dropped to its lowest level in four years in July 2024. This happened after the Biden administration made it harder for immigrants to apply for asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, a policy measure that is in line with many Republicans’ approach.

In 2022, a poll found 7 out of 10 Republicans worried that “open borders” were part of a Democratic plot to expand liberals’ power by replacing conservative white people with nonwhite foreigners.

Trump played into some people’s mostly false concerns that immigrants living illegally in the U.S. are freeloaders and won’t assimilate, as illustrated by his untrue September 2024 allegations that immigrants were eating pets in Ohio.

In 2022, 82% of Republicans said they viewed immigration as a “very important” issue. Trump continues to tout his proposed solution, which includes shutting the border, building a wall and deporting 11 million immigrants who are living in the U.S. without legal authorization.

4. A proven record

Beyond the economy and immigration, some Trump voters simply compared the records of Trump and the Biden-Harris administration and found that the tally tilted firmly toward Trump.

There were no new wars under Trump. Biden-Harris, in contrast, have been saddled with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip. Trump supporters’ perception is that American taxpayers foot a large portion of the bill, even though other countries are also giving money to Ukraine, and Israel is actually buying weapons from the U.S.

I have found that Trump supporters also think he is better suited to deal with the rising power and threat of China. Finally, abortion opponents believe he delivered by appointing Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade.

5. The MAGA bull in a china shop

While some Harris supporters lamented Trump’s destruction of democracy and decency in politics, I have found that Trump voters see a charismatic MAGA bull in a china shop.

His supporters wanted Trump elected precisely because he is an unrelenting pugilist, or a fighter – as he showed when he raised a fist after the July assassination attempt against him.

Some in the Trumpiverse even view him as savior who will rescue the U.S. from a “radical left” apocalypse.

For Trump stalwarts, MAGA is not simply a slogan. It is a movement to save an America that is on the brink of failure.

The Work Begins Now, William Kristol
These next couple of months are important. The adversarial work shouldn’t wait until Trump’s inauguration. If Trump as president-elect sails through these next two months unimpeded and unmarked, he’ll take office in a position of great strength. If, on the other hand, there’s effective opposition to his worst appointees, if real obstacles can be put in place ahead of time to his worst policies, if real efforts are organized to protect individuals the Trumpists intend to go after, Trump could start off with much less ability to do damage than one might expect.

Reality Check, Andrew Egger
We should not assume that, just because Americans shrugged at warnings of Trump’s authoritarianism, they will also shrug when he puts that authoritarianism into practice. To take just one example: Polling this year suggested that the public supports the idea of Trump’s mass deportations of illegal immigrants. But abstract support for migrants no longer being here is one thing; continued public support for a messy, brutal, expensive, lengthy program of such deportations—one that will disrupt the economy and rip apart communities—will be something else entirely.