The most likely scenario is some form of Finlandization.
The problem is that the whole MAGA narrative about Russia’s motives is false, and was always false. Putin has always wanted to conquer all or most of Ukraine — that’s why his first attack in early 2022 was against the Ukrainian capital, and why he sent a military parade column toward Kyiv. It was never really about NATO, or about protecting Russian speakers, or any of that stuff. And as long as his army continues to advance and take more territory in Ukraine, his population is quiescent, and his military manufacturing is humming along, Putin naturally sees little reason to relent. He sees that he’s winning, and he wants to win it all.
Trump and his people are now waking up to this fact:
