The Conversation

Trump’s position is certainly not predestined. He is known to be a highly transactional politician, particularly when it comes to foreign policy. So while many commentators assume that Trump is likely to favour Russia, the European powers and Ukraine could come up with a way to appeal to Trump’s instinct for cutting a deal and to be the “big man of history” if he generates a different outcome.

A plan that allows Trump to reduce the US military presence in Europe, while being able to publicly claim that he won the peace could be a win-win for the re-elected president. But wars are messy, and Russian progress in Ukraine is now changing the reality on the ground.

By the time Trump takes office, the situation in Ukraine – and the territorial advantage held by Russian troops – is likely to have changed markedly. So the two months between now Trump’s inauguration on January 20 are a critical time for all concerned.