Not all of it is his fault, but warning lights are flashing, and his policies aren’t helping.

So the deck is a bit stacked against him. But so far, Trump’s proposed policies — big tax cuts, tariffs, and yelling at the Fed to cut interest rates — look exactly what America doesn’t need in order to keep inflation down and growth high.

So Trump is in danger of piling self-inflicted wounds on top of existing bad luck. As a result, the Trump economy could end up as a severe disappointment. Already, warning signs are flashing.

The national debt is a huge problem again
I’ve been warning for a couple years now that the national debt was about to become a problem again. For two decades, Americans didn’t worry much about the debt, because interest rates were low. If interest payments are low, you basically don’t even notice debt piling up, because it doesn’t do anything — it just sort of sits there as a number in Microsoft Excel.