So What. Chris Cillizza
My overall view on the race for the Senate majority has changed slightly since the last time I did this: I am now more bullish on Republican chances of taking the majority — thanks in large part to the continued struggles of Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana.
While Democrats continue to insist they have real opportunities for pickups in Florida and Texas, I am still in wait-and-see mode on both races. To play seriously in either race is probably a $20-$30 million commitment by national Democrats — and I haven’t seen any indication just yet that they will make that big a bet.
The Decision Desk HQ Senate model agrees with my sense of the state of play. They give Republicans a 70% chance of winning the majority in the fall. Here are the model odds for the most competitive races:
