We were warned that this day was coming. We, like the Europeans, just hoped it wouldn’t. My new piece on the implications for Pacific security of last week’s geopolitical earthquake in Europe.

As I watched with growing unease the statements by Trump, Vance, Hegseth and Kellogg last week, it became clear that the political earthquake that hit Europe last week would also have aftershocks across Asia. In this piece, I conduct an initial assessment of the key impacts of the new Trump Doctrine for working with allies and authoritarian regimes, and the implications for Australia.

There have been many interpretations of the behaviour of the new US administration in Europe and America. Perhaps the best description might be offered by Vladimir Lenin, who is reputed to have stated: “There are decades where nothing happens and then there are weeks when decades happen.”

This shift has been described by the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal as peace through weakness. In an era in which aggressive, technologically advanced and industrialised authoritarians believe the time has come to reorder the international system, Trump’s retreat from the world will only provoke and embolden dictators like Putin and Xi Jinping.

This piece was published yesterday by the Sydney Morning Herald.