Notes from the Middleground

Harris and Trump are running neck-and-neck. That very closeness is leading both candidates to embrace an almost comical degree of flexibility on policy

On the contrary, the reality of the past decade of American politics has been precisely this: An intense and often deranging political standoff and war of attrition over inches of electoral territory. That reality seemed like it would be ended by a decisive Biden victory in 2020. But his 4.5-point national popular vote win translated into an extremely narrow victory in the Electoral College.

And then it seemed like 2024 might end the standoff in the other direction, with a sweeping Biden loss and Trump’s most decisive win yet. But that, too, was not to be. Harris taking over as the Democratic nominee has seemingly put us right back where we were in 2016 and 2020—with the two parties desperately jockeying for position and hoping to prevail by a nose in a photo-finish.

And that’s where the unreality comes in.