Will tariffs help rebalance the global economy (and the Chinese economy)?

Why trade surpluses and deficits do happen is an important and interesting and complex question, and my general impression from reading a bunch of economics papers on the topic is “No one really knows”. It probably has something to do with the fact that China’s government is directing its banks to loan vast amounts of money to manufacturers, and paying manufacturers tons of subsidies on top of that.

The “other countries should put tariffs on China” idea and the “China should shift its economy toward domestic consumption” idea are unified in the worldview of Michael Pettis, who has advocated both things. He has been saying that China needs to increase the share of consumption in its domestic economy for well over a decade, and it seems to me that more than anyone, he is responsible for injecting this idea into the discourse.