So, hypergrowth requires AI that can do “essentially everything”. It also requires AI be able to adapt to the job, rather than requiring jobs and workflows to be restructured around AI. Otherwise, AI will diffuse into the economy at a rate similar to past technologies – too slowly to lead to sustained hypergrowth. Hypergrowth requires AIs to be general enough to do more or less everything people can do, and flexible enough to fit into the circumstances in which people were doing it.

When AI can perform more or less all economically valuable tasks, and doesn’t require the task to be adapted to suit automation, it will be ready to undertake all of the scenarios I’ve mentioned. Until those conditions are met, the need for expert human assistance will make all of those scenarios infeasible.

I define AGI as AI that can cost-effectively replace humans at more than 95% of economic activity, including any new jobs that are created in the future.