Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

The next President will face significant fiscal challenges upon taking office, including record debt levels, large structural deficits, surging interest payments, and the looming insolvency of critical trust fund programs.1 Our large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis.

However, neither major candidate running in the 2024 presidential election has put forward a plan to address this rising debt burden. In fact, our comprehensive analysis of the candidates’ tax and spending plans finds that both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump would likely further increase deficits and debt above levels projected under current law.

Under our central estimate, Vice President Harris’s plan would increase the debt by $3.95 trillion through 2035, while President Trump’s plan would increase the debt by $7.75 trillion. These estimates are an update of our October 7 analysis, and include additional policy proposals.