Why you should *ignore* polling averages
It’s the weekly Chris/Chuck chat!

In this episode we cover:

• Why Chuck doesn’t like polling averages
• The early states — and races! — to watch on election night
• The October 7 anniversary
• Are the Washington Commanders elite?

CHRIS CRUCIAL: Why I am *very* worried about political violence

1. A(nother) violent election?

I spoke to a group of Finnish folks today and, after my speech, one of them pulled me aside and almost sheepishly asked me this: Is there going to be violence in the streets after the November election? (Interestingly it’s a question I get virtually any time I give a talk — especially to European audiences.)

In truth, I didn’t — and don’t — have a good answer to it. I want to say “No, of course not — we pride ourselves on the peaceful transition of power.” But then I remember that January 6, 2021 happened — and that day proved, at least to me, that we are a lot closer to political chaos (and violence) than we like to admit.

It wasn’t just January 6 either. (And for those who insist the riot that day was peaceful, you need to watch this.). There’s plenty of polling data out there — post-January 6 — that suggests that some decent-sized chunk of Republicans believe violence might be justified to deal with an adverse election result.

The Morning: The most important # in the new NYT poll

But it’s not the horserace matchup I want to draw your attention to. It’s the question of which candidate represents change. In the poll 46% say Harris and 44% choose Trump.