Hyperdimensional

I’ve long admired prediction markets as an epistemic tool. They allow individuals to leverage the wisdom of crowds in the same way stock markets do. Prediction markets anticipated the serious prospect of President Biden dropping out of the election significantly before most experts did, to name a recent notable example. The latent intelligence embedded in prices has been understood for a long time now, though it remains underrated.

And what if other LLMs also surveyed the broader media environment and placed their own bets? If you think of my writing and thinking (or yours) as a kind of one-man intellectual hedge fund, these latter groups would be something like funds of funds.

What if we could simulate financial markets for every question about the future that concerns us? And what if it cost next to nothing to do? What if, after the work of setting it up was complete, all this just carried on each day, in a way that few humans had to devote much time to maintaining or thinking about?