The Conversation

First, the 2024 election was extremely close. Once all the votes are counted, it will probably end up being the closest popular vote contest since 2000. In addition, it’s possible that Donald Trump will fall below 50% of the popular vote. Any loss is difficult, but this is hardly the 49-state drubbing that Democrats endured against Ronald Reagan in 1984.

In addition, the 2024 results fall pretty close to the outcome predicted by election models that were based on economic fundamentals. This suggests that voters were registering dissatisfaction with poor economic conditions rather than offering a wholesale rejection of the Democratic ideology.

And even if the public has become less enamored of liberal governance over the past four years, this is both natural and temporary. Political scientists have long observed the thermostatic nature of American politics. That’s a fancy way of saying that when a Republican occupies the White House, the public becomes more liberal. Conversely, under Democratic presidents, the American people become more conservative. Given this pattern, it seems very likely that in four years the public will be in a more liberal mood.