Silver Bulletin. Nate Silver

A common refrain among a certain type of liberal commentator is that Democrats should be winning the election by 20 points! The economy is great! Joe Biden got a lot done! And Donald Trump represents an existential threat to democracy. It’s only misinformation, perpetuated by Trump but accentuated by the mainstream media, that’s keeping the election close.

After watching last night’s VP debate, I’m more skeptical about this claim than ever.

The debate itself probably won’t matter. VP debates rarely do, especially one like this that was fought to a draw in polls. In CNN’s survey of debate-watchers, JD Vance won 51-49 — but that’s well within the margin of error.