China’s peak is truly spectacular — a marvel of state capacity and resource mobilization never seen before on this planet. In just a few years, China built more high-speed rail than all other countries in the world combined. Its auto manufacturers are leapfrogging the developed world, seizing leadership in the EV industry of the future. China has produced so many solar panels and batteries that it has driven down the cost to be competitive with fossil fuels — a huge blow against climate change, despite all of China’s massive coal emissions, and a victory for global energy abundance. China’s cities are marvels of scale — forests of towering skyscrapers lit up with LEDs, cavernous malls filled with amazing restaurants and shops selling every possible modern convenience for cheap, vast highways and huge train stations. Even China’s policy mistakes and authoritarian overreaches inspire awe and dread — Zero Covid failed in the end, but it demonstrated an ability to control society down to the granular level that the Soviets would have envied.

But it’s still an open question whether China will be as creative as the great civilizations of the 20th century. Many people (including myself) compare early 21st century China to early 20th century America. But by the start of World War 1, Americans had already invented the airplane, the light bulb, the telephone, the record player, air conditioning, the automatic transmission, the machine gun, and the ballpoint pen. And the country had already given rise to jazz music, Hollywood movies, and lots of well-known literature. Japan’s cultural explosion came a bit later, but was every bit as impressive.