How Trump won Pennsylvania− and what the numbers from key counties show about the future of a pivotal swing state

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Erie County in the northwest corner of the state has been the quintessential bellwether in Pennsylvania since the 1980s. In recent elections, it went for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. It held onto its title in 2024 by going for Trump.

I believe Pennsylvania will remain a swing state in 2028. But Democrats will need a more compelling message, not just for the white working class, but also for working-class Latinos and African Americans in these key counties.

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