‘Higher Odds for an Upset’: Election Forecasters Break Down the 2024 Race

Source: Politico

By Eugene DanielsNovember 2, 2024

A pair of election forecasters on how to approach the final days of the campaign.

Every presidential campaign features a breakout star, and in 2024, there might be two: Lakshya Jain, co-founder of Split Ticket, and Logan Phillips, founder of Race to the White House. They are two of the nation’s top election forecasters and both have muscled their way into the crowded conversation of polling analysts, arguably led by Nate Silver.

In an interview for the Playbook Deep Dive podcast, they talked why the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is a real toss-up and why polls sometimes do a terrible job of capturing certain slices of the electorate — particularly people who didn’t vote in 2020 but may vote this year.

 

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