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Wednesday 9/26/22Sept 26- Oct 2, 2022

News

Senate Rules Cmte votes 14 to 1 for Electoral Reform
Forbes Breaking News September 27, 2022 (42:03)

(There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud or cheating in the 2020 election.)

The Senate Rules Committee hearing holds a hearing on the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act.

McConnell supports Electoral Reform Count Act
Axios, Erin DohertySeptember 27, 2022

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday that he will support the bipartisan bill that would reform and modernize the Electoral Count Act of 1887.

Why it matters: McConnell’s endorsement of the bill, sponsored by Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), bolsters the measure’s chances of clearing the Senate.

Driving the news: “I strongly support the modest changes that our colleagues in the working group have fleshed out after literally months of detailed discussions,” McConnell said Tuesday.

Response to Hurricane Ian & right-wing election wins in Europe
PBS NewsHour, Brooks and CapehartSeptember 30, 2022 (12:00)

New York Times columnist David Brooks and Washington Post associate editor Jonathan Capehart join Judy Woodruff to discuss the week in politics, including the state and federal response to Hurricane Ian and recent election victories by right-wing political parties across Europe.

Don Beyer Interview – one minute overview
CNN, Producer: Ben Murphy, Host: Connor Oatman, September 26, 2022 (01:17)

The Islamic Republic of Iran is no stranger to popular uprisings. The regime cracked down on protests in 2009, and again 10 years later. But there’s something different about the demonstrations sweeping the country today, sparked by the killing of a woman by morality police. They are being led by young people, and are playing out both in the streets, and online. Ali Rogin reports.

Cheney will not remain a Republican if Trump runs
CNN, Annie GrayerSeptember 25, 2022

Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney said at The Texas Tribune Festival Saturday that if former President Donald Trump becomes the Republican Party’s nominee for president in 2024, she will not remain a Republican.

“I’m going to make sure Donald Trump, I’m going to do everything I can to make sure he is not the nominee. And if he is the nominee, I won’t be a Republican,” Cheney said.

Cheney also said she will campaign for Democrats to ensure that Republican candidates who promote election lies do not get elected.

SCOTUS’s new term could be even more consequential
Vox, Ian Millhiser September 26, 2022

The Republican justices who overruled Roe v. Wade are only getting started.

The headline of this piece is likely to turn a few heads. The Supreme Court’s last term, after all, was an orgy of conservative excess unlike any since the Court’s Great Depression-era attacks on the New Deal. And it culminated in the demise of Roe v. Wade, arguably the most closely watched Supreme Court decision since the justices declared school segregation unconstitutional in 1954.

But this term, a potentially even more consequential issue than the right to an abortion is on the Court’s docket: democracy itself. A single case, Moore v. Harper, threatens to fundamentally rewrite the rules governing federal elections, potentially giving state legislatures (some of which are highly gerrymandered themselves) nearly limitless power to skew those elections.

A second case in the Court’s new term — which officially opens on Monday, October 3 — also places free and fair elections in the United States in grave peril. That case, Merrill v. Milligan, could usher in a new era of racial gerrymandering where states have more freedom to undercut Black and brown political power than they’ve had since President Lyndon Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act in 1965 — a law that the Roberts Court has spent the last decade dismantling piece by piece.

PBS NewsHour West live episode 9/27/22
PBS NewsHour, September 27, 2022 – 11:00 pm (ET)
Pollsters fear they’re blowing it
Politico, Steven ShepardSeptember 26, 2022

Democrats seem to be doing better than expected with voters. But if the polls are wrong, they could be disappointed in November — again.

Pollsters know they have a problem. But they aren’t sure they’ve fixed it in time for the November election.

Since Donald Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory, pre-election polls have consistently understated support for Republican candidates, compared to the votes ultimately cast.

Once again, polls over the past two months are showing Democrats running stronger than once expected in a number of critical midterm races. It’s left some wondering whether the rosy results are setting the stage for another potential polling failure that dashes Democratic hopes of retaining control of Congress— and vindicates the GOP’s assertion that the polls are unfairly biased against them.

Ned Price, State Dept., holds news briefing
PBS NewsHour, September 26, 2022 – 3:45 pm (ET)
PBS NewsHour West live episode 9/26/22
PBS NewsHour, September 26, 2022 – 11:00 pm (ET)
Biden hosts Atlanta Braves
PBS NewsHour, September 26, 2022 – 12:00 pm to 12:16 am (ET)
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Sept 19-25, 2022Sept 19-25, 2022

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Name-calling in politics grabs headlines
The Conversation, Beth L. FossenSeptember 22, 2022

Spending on political advertising is setting records in the midterm elections. But evidence shows that negative messages might discourage voters from casting ballots altogether.

As the 2022 midterms get closer, political attacks in campaign advertisements are on the rise.

In November, Rep. Paul Gosar shared an anime cartoon video showing him physically attacking Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat, and President Joe Biden.

That same month, Rep. Ilhan Omar called her Republican colleague Rep. Lauren Boebert a buffoon and a bigot on Twitter. Even the official White House Twitter account has gotten in on the politically divisive action, making recent headlines when it snapped back in August 2022 at several Republican members of Congress who criticized the Paycheck Protection Program – after they themselves had their loans forgiven.

Uncivil messages by politicians have become more and more common in the last decade. Political attacks are now a regular occurrence in an increasingly polarized political environment, encouraging voters to get mad and plan to vote ahead of Election Day in November.

But that doesn’t mean these kinds of advertisements and personal attacks actually work.

I study political marketing and, as a former campaign manager and political consultant, have seen politicians use uncivil strategies firsthand with the hopes of getting themselves elected. My research on political advertising suggests that highly polarized communications could be losing their persuasive power and can even backfire in the upcoming midterms, hurting a candidate’s chances.

The impacts of political attack ads

My research shows that political ads and language do indeed put people in a negative mood. Even simply asking voters to think about politics is enough to get them angry. This negativity is amplified if an ad specifically attacks an opposing candidate.

There is also evidence that this anger carries over to voting behavior. Data from U.S. elections from 2000 to 2012 shows that negative political TV commercials make people less likely to vote for the attacked politician, but also make people less likely to vote in general.

Politicians tend to use less negative, polarizing advertising on social media compared to their advertising on television, however. This might be because social media attracts a smaller, more targeted audience, and perhaps candidates fear that these kinds of tactics could demobilize supporters.

The rise of polarization

There are a few factors that help explain why political campaigns and attacks on opponents have become more toxic in recent years.

First off, voters are more emotional and angrier than ever before. This emotion about politics has been linked to the normalcy of anger in our day-to-day lives and increased political competition – for example, close presidential elections.

Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. are also interacting less and less. This social polarization comes as political identity is more important to voters than ever before. Being a Democrat or a Republican is a core part of who the voter is and shapes both their political decisions – like whom they vote for – as well as their nonpolitical ones, like whom they hang out with.

Given these factors, conversations about politics are increasingly happening among people who already agree on political issues.

Politicians like former President Donald Trump and others seem to be leveraging the fact that they are preaching to the choir, so to speak, and are using more and more polarized language to attack the other side.

Whether language is polarized or not is a subjective question, but my research and the work of others has focused on how negative a political message is and how extreme the message is.

Women and men stand together with protest signs that say 'Make America Great Again' and 'Lock her up' at a Trump rally.
Donald Trump and his supporters were known during the 2016 campaign for chanting ‘Lock her up!’ in reference to Hillary Clinton. David Hume Kennerly/Getty Images

The declining power of polarized messaging

There is some evidence that voters may be getting tired of negative political communications flooding their screens.

Using data from the 2016 U.S. presidential election, my collaborators and I found that political ad messages that are more polarized hurt candidates in the polls and lead voters to talk less about the candidate.

Specifically, we find that voters prefer more centrist and more consistent messaging in political ads, at least in the contexts of recent presidential elections. This research used text analysis methods, which allowed us to score each ad for how polarized the messaging was as well as how consistent the messaging was for the candidate.

Polarized messages particularly hurt a candidate’s election chances if they are off-brand for the candidate – that is, for politicians who are typically moderate, and then try to go extreme.

A white man in a red hat appears to be arguing with a young black man in a crowded scene that looks like a protest.
A protester and a supporter of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh argue before his confirmation in 2018. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Looking ahead to the 2022 midterms

There’s a lot at stake in the upcoming midterm elections in November 2022, as every House seat and about one-third of the Senate seats are up for grabs. A record-setting US$8.9 billion in political ad spending is expected for this midterm election season.

If the dominant tone of this messaging is toxic, political campaigns run the risk of disengaging more and more voters.

My research shows that there are emerging consequences of polarized communications that can hurt candidates in the polls. These insights may encourage political campaigns to test different ad strategies this midterm, perhaps curbing the negativity.

Students Interview the Candidates
September 7, 2022 (02:30)

Moderator: Connor Oatman, US onAir – connor.oatman@onair.cc
Aircaster: Ben Murphy, US onAir – ben.murphy@onair.cc

Featured Guest: Congressman Don Beyer, US House VA-08
Student Guests: Valentina Autorina, Frida Cervantes, Devin Pieczynski, Gabriel Yu from George Mason University.  Students asked Congressman Don Beyer about his positions on a number of issues including engaging students in US democracy, Northern Virginia mass transit, abortion and funding college education.

WATCH: Biden addresses UN General Assembly
PBS NewsHour, September 21, 2022 – 10:00 am (ET)
‘Are the Polls Wrong?’ Is the Wrong Question
Politico, Stephen Clermont September 20, 2022

A pollster’s guide to keeping your sanity before the midterms.

If you, like me, obsessively follow elections, the next 50 days will be filled with predictions, freakouts and contradictory data. I have already had several friends and family members send me the New York Times’ “Are the Polls Wrong Again?” piece, panicked that Democrats could be leading by too much in some Senate races.

As a professional pollster, my advice to the nerve-wracked polling junkie is simple: Take a deep breath, embrace the uncertainty and go beneath the surface of the polls to better understand the dynamics this year

It’s true that my industry has struggled at times to accurately gauge public opinion, particularly in the Trump era. Is it possible that we’re missing Republicans or Trump supporters in surveys? Perhaps. But it’s just as wrongheaded to assume that polls are inevitably faulty and that historical trends or calculations to unskew the polls are more important.

Election officials struggle to recruit poll workers for midterms amid growing threats
PBS NewsHourSeptember 19, 2022 (09:51)

Election Day is less than two months away, yet there’s a critical missing element that could slow down the voting process. It takes more than a million people working the polls to make American elections run smoothly. Between retirements and concerns about COVID, tens of thousands of poll workers have left the job over the past several election cycles. William Brangham reports.

Amy Walter and Asma Khalid on Hispanic voters and the midterms
PBS NewsHourSeptember 19, 2022 (08:50)

Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Asma Khalid of NPR join Judy Woodruff to discuss the latest political news, including Republicans pushing to make immigration and the southern border a key issue and a new poll of Hispanic voters ahead of the midterms.

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A Ukrainian flag waves after the Ukrainian military liberated the town of Balakliya in the Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine, on September 11. Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty ImagesSept. 12-18, 2022

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Ukraine’s surprising counteroffensive
Vox, Ellen Ioanes September 11, 2022

Ukraine’s second-largest city and several strategic hubs were liberated in the operation.

A surprise counteroffensive over the weekend saw Ukrainian troops push into areas around Kharkiv in the country’s northeast, liberating villages and cities, and catching Russian troops flat-footed. The swift maneuvers threatened to encircle a portion of the Russian army and led them to rapidly abandon positions and military hardware as Ukrainian troops closed in.

The counteroffensive has recaptured around 1,160 square miles of territory since it began in earnest earlier this month, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyy told the Associated Press Sunday. The eastward push caught Russian forces off-guard and forced several units to abandon their posts as Ukrainian troops took control of the strategic cities of Izyum, Balakliya, and Kupiansk — critical areas for the Russian supply and logistics lines in the Donbas region.

It’s the most significant blow to the Russian military since Ukraine pushed troops out of Kyiv in March, and frees Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, which Russian forces have devastated with near-constant shelling for months.

Russia’s ‘rigid’ forces collapse
Channel 4 NewsSeptember 12, 2022 (13:18)

Ukraine has carried out such a swift counteroffensive against Russia it’s taken even their own forces by surprise.

Ukrainian troops have recaptured huge areas of territory in the east of the country, some reportedly reaching a settlement almost on the border with Russia.

As Russian troops abandon their positions, leaving tanks, ammunition and military hardware behind, Ukrainian flags have been raised in dozens of newly liberated villages and towns.

Direct democracy can force governments to better represent the people
The Conversation, Susan StokesSeptember 15, 2022
Abortion rights activists hold placards saying 'Honor the Will of the People' and 'We Won't go Back.'

The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has led to a push for citizens initiatives to enshrine abortion rights. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

In August 2022, a statewide referendum in Kansas saw citizens overwhelmingly reject a plan to insert anti-abortion language into the state’s constitution. It comes as a slew of similar votes on abortion rights are planned in the coming months – putting the issue directly to the people after the Supreme Court struck down the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling.

But are referendums and citizens initiatives good for democracy? It may seem like an odd question to pose on International Day for Democracy, especially at a time when many feel democracy is imperiled both in the U.S. and around the world.

As someone who researches democracy, I know the answer isn’t simple. It depends on the kind of initiative and the reason that it comes to be held.

First, some simple distinctions. Referendums and citizens initiatives are mechanisms of direct democracy – instances in which members of the public vote on issues that are commonly decided, in representative systems, by legislatures or governments. While with referendums it is typically the government that places questions on the ballot, with citizens initiatives – more common at the state level in the U.S. – the vote originates outside of government, usually through petition drives.

The Chicago Center on Democracy, which I lead at the University of Chicago, recently launched a website that tracks many of these direct democracy efforts over the past half-century.

Appealing to the masses or settling scores

That a majority of democracies retain some form of direct democracy is a testament to the legitimacy with which citizens’ voices are heard, even when, in fact, most decisions are made by our elected leaders. Often, national governments call referendums to bring important questions directly to its citizens.

But why would governments ever decide to turn a decision over to the people?

In some cases, they have no choice. Many countries, among them Australia, require that constitutional amendments be approved in popular referendums.

In other instances, such votes are optional. United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron, for example, was under no obligation to undertake a 2016 referendum on continued EU membership. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos had plenty of legislative support that same year to ratify peace accords with a rebel group through an act of congress. But he turned the decision over to the people, instead.

A woman in a red coat holds to British Union flags one with 'Brexit' written on it
Pushing a Brexit referendum backfired on then-Prime Minister David Cameron. Brian Lawless/PA Images via Getty Images

One reason leaders voluntarily put important issues before voters is to solve disputes within their own political parties. The Brexit vote is a case in point. The U.K. Conservative Party was deeply divided over British membership in the EU, and – as Cameron later acknowledges in his memoirs – his position as head of the party, and thus as prime minister, was increasingly threatened.

In these instances, the government is in effect using the people as a referee to decide an internal dispute. It is a high-risk move, though. For Cameron, going to the country meant the end of his premiership. And six years on, the U.K. is still dealing with the fallout of that vote.

Sometimes leaders seek public support on issues about which they expect powerful opposition upon implementation. Colombia’s Santos expected resistance to the peace deal from opponents, including wealthy landed interests. He used the people as a kind of force field to protect the policy. But again, the strategy backfired. The Colombian accords were defeated, and have since faced powerful resistance when subsequent attempts were made to implement them through legislative approval.

But do these two high-profile instances illustrate fatal flaws in referendums, and direct democracy in general? Perhaps not.

Though plenty of disinformation circulated before both votes, the results probably fairly accurately reflected the people’s preferences. Moreover, they illustrate the perils to political leaders of placing issues of crucial importance before voters – they can’t be sure they will like the results.

And when their referendums fail, they may set back causes that these politicians care about. For example, Brazil held a referendum on gun control in 2005. It failed, and later pro-guns rights president Jair Bolsonaro used its failure to try to loosen restrictions on firearms, claiming that the failure of the referendum allowed him to do so.

Tool of demagogues

Sometimes the prime minister or president does prevail. A kind of referendum was used in Australia in 2017 to pressure the legislature into legalizing same-sex marriage. Conservative politicians were willing to hold a vote, with the same kind of “referee logic” as in Brexit – they were opposed to same-sex marriage, but preferred to go along with the public’s will, rather than continue to fight over this internally divisive issue.

In the end, the pro-marriage equality prime minister opted for a “postal survey” rather than a formal referendum. And the gamble worked for Australia’s leader – a very large majority expressed support of same-sex marriage and the prime minister got his way.

For every Colombia-style debacle, in which a leader holds an optional referendum but fails, one can point to governments putting matters to a popular vote to produce a force field, and winning. The approval of the public can make policy immune to –- or at least undermine – later opposition. Such was the case of same-sex marriage in Ireland, passed by referendum in 2015. The following year, Ireland settled the issue of abortion access, overturning a ban by a two-thirds majority.

Referendums are not only used by democratic leaders but also by autocrats and demagogues. Russian president Vladimir Putin put a series of constitutional reforms before voters in 2020, including one that overturned Putin’s prior term limit in office.

Accusations of fraud and intimidation followed the vote. The process could hardly have been more at odds with direct democracy and the autonomous expression of the people’s will.

Getting policy to line up with people’s will

There are no national referendums in the U.S. But American voters have a great deal of experience with initiatives at the state level – and with state-wide referendums, as well. These votes have the potential to force governments to abide by the people’s will in cases where legislators may be resisting popular policies.

Yet problems can arise with these exercises in direct democracy. Even though they are presumably citizens’ initiatives, the influence of political parties, special interests, lobbyists and big money can turn them into something quite different, as was the experience of California in the 1990s – which in turn undermined the public’s satisfaction in the initiative process.

But recently we have seen a spate of state initiatives that seem more promising – where majorities of citizens are demanding that their state legislatures bring policy more in line with public opinion. Florida voters approved ex-felon voting; Arizona voters approved bigger budgets for public schools; Missouri voters forced a reluctant legislature to expand Medicare in their state. All of these initiatives were backed with popular public support.

Most recently, Kansans said “no,” in referendum, to inserting pro-life language into their state´s constitution.

‘Let the people decide!’

The potential for mechanisms of direct democracy to improve citizen representation depends on the context in which they are held, including the manner in which they are placed on the ballot and the motives of those who placed them there.

At one extreme are autocrats like Vladimir Putin who held votes that augment his power and the length of his term. At the other are citizens frustrated by legislators whose actions stray far from public opinion. In between are measures sponsored by governments that may want to insulate policies they care about with the help of the people’s backing, and parties that throw their hands up, in the context of internal divisions, and say, “let the people decide.”

News Wrap: DOJ appeals for access to classified documents r
PBS NewsHourSeptember 17, 2022 (03:08)

In our news wrap Saturday, the Justice Department asked a federal appeals court to restore its access to the classified materials found at Mar-a-Lago while an independent arbiter conducts his review, Puerto Rico is under a hurricane warning as Tropical Storm Fiona approaches, violent protests have broken out in Haiti’s capital, and Queen Elizabeth II lies in state for a final two days in London.

immigration debate and abortion access
PBS NewsHour, Capehart and Gerson September 16, 2022 (12:45)

Capehart and Gerson on how immigration debate and abortion access will play into midterms

Washington Post associate editor Jonathan Capehart and Washington Post opinion columnist Michael Gerson join Judy Woodruff to discuss the week in politics, including controversies over immigration and how access to abortion is likely to play into the midterm elections.

Polls show Republicans may not get red wave they hoped for in midterms
PBS NewsHourSeptember 14, 2022 (09:17)

Historical trends and months of polling previously predicted that Democrats will face trouble in the midterms. But recent data shows that a red wave may not be the tsunami that Republicans were hoping for. Democratic strategist Joel Benenson and Republican pollster Neil Newhouse join Amna Nawaz to discuss what they’re watching ahead of Election Day.

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September 5-11, 2022September 5-11, 2022

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Capehart and Gerson on Queen Elizabeth’s political impact
PBS NewsHourSeptember 9, 2022 (13:21)

Washington Post associate editor Jonathan Capehart and Washington Post opinion columnist Michael Gerson join Judy Woodruff to discuss the week in politics, including Queen Elizabeth’s impact on the American political landscape and a look at new polls that paint a fresh picture of the electorate just two months ahead of the midterm elections.

WATCH: PBS NewsHour full episode
CNN, September 9, 2022 – 6:00 pm (ET)

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/09/uk/royal-family-king-charles-iii-intl-gbr/index.html

As King Charles III takes the throne, big changes lie ahead for the royal family
CNN, Max FosterSeptember 9, 2022

God save the Queen, long live the King. The second Elizabethan age has come to an end and the royal family will now regroup around a new monarch for the next era in British history.

What will change for each of the royals?

The moment Elizabeth II died, her eldest child, Charles, automatically became monarch. As sovereign, he has chosen to take the name King Charles III.

All rights and responsibilities of the Crown now rest with King Charles III.

He becomes head of state not just in the UK but in 14 other Commonwealth realms including Australia and Canada. He will become head of the 56-member Commonwealth, although that is not a hereditary position, after his succession to the role was agreed by Commonwealth leaders at a meeting in London in 2018.

What to watch for in Friday’s proposals for the Mar-a-Lago search special master review
CNN, Tierney SneedSeptember 9, 2022

The Justice Department and former President Donald Trump’s lawyers face a Friday midnight deadline for submitting proposals for how the special master review of the documents seized at Mar-a-Lago — including classified documents — should work.

They’ll be filing the briefs even as the Justice Department appeals the order requiring the review, in which a third-party attorney will sift through the materials from Trump’s Florida home and segregate out the privileged documents that should be withheld from federal investigators.

While the appeal plays out, prosecutors are also asking that its review of classified documents be allowed to continue separate from the special master review. The parties have been instructed by US District Judge Aileen Cannon to weigh in on the department’s arguments about the documents in the filing due Friday.

Elizabeth II:  The British Queen who weathered war and upheaval dies at 96
CNN, Barry NeildSeptember 8, 2022

Queen Elizabeth II, who has died age 96 after the longest reign in British history, will be mourned around the globe as one of the last monarchs born to a classic age of European royalty, when kings and queens wielded genuine political power.

Elizabeth’s death comes seven months after she marked the 70th anniversary of her accession to the throne, yet another milestone achievement in the remarkable life of a queen who, though reluctantly thrust into the spotlight at a young age, won almost universal praise for her steadfast dedication to duty.

Her long reign saw Britain transformed from a war-weary declining imperial power into a modern multi-cultural state that rarely looked to its monarch for leadership, but still held her in high esteem.
And while it witnessed its fair share of joy — not least the 2011 marriage of the Queen’s grandson Prince William to Catherine Middleton, and the birth of their three children — Elizabeth’s rule also weathered many storms, both public and personal, as the monarchy tried to keep pace with changing times.

 

Gloves off, Biden embraces tough tone on ‘MAGA Republicans’
Associated Press, Seung Min Kim September 8, 2022

In recent days, President Joe Biden has sharpened his attacks against Donald Trump and the so-called MAGA Republicans for posing a threat to democracy. He’s likened the philosophy undergirding the dominant strain of the modern-day GOP to “semi-fascism.”

And Democrats are taking notice.

The gloves-off, no-holds-barred approach from Biden as of late has emboldened Democrats across the country, rallying the party faithful ahead of the November elections even as his harshest rhetoric makes some vulnerable incumbents visibly uncomfortable.

Biden’s increasingly stark warnings about Trump-fueled elements of the Republican Party are making up the core part of his midterm message, combined with repeated reminders to voters about recent Democratic accomplishments and a promise that democracy can still produce results for the American people. But it’s the blistering statements from Biden about his predecessor and adherents of the “Make America Great Again” philosophy that have given many Democrats a bolt of fresh energy as they campaign to keep control of Congress.

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