Summary

There are 34 senate races on the ballot in 2024. Currently 23 seats are held by Democrats and 11 by Republicans.

This post has summaries of the most competitive senate races according to most polls as shown in the map.

Go here or select the menu in the header to view all the senate races in a slide show format.

Member Note: If you have a suggestions or questions for our US onAir Curators, select the discussion/comment icon in the post. If you would like to comment on a specific race, go to that race post’s discussion section.

OnAir Post: 2024 US Senate Races

News

The ‘So What’ Senate rankings
So What. Chris CillizzaOctober 1, 2024

My overall view on the race for the Senate majority has changed slightly since the last time I did this: I am now more bullish on Republican chances of taking the majority — thanks in large part to the continued struggles of Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana.

While Democrats continue to insist they have real opportunities for pickups in Florida and Texas, I am still in wait-and-see mode on both races. To play seriously in either race is probably a $20-$30 million commitment by national Democrats — and I haven’t seen any indication just yet that they will make that big a bet.

The Decision Desk HQ Senate model agrees with my sense of the state of play. They give Republicans a 70% chance of winning the majority in the fall. Here are the model odds for the most competitive races:

How Sherrod Brown is navigating Harris’ candidacy
CNN, Manu Raju and Haley TalbotAugust 4, 2024

Sen. Sherrod Brown doesn’t plan to campaign with Vice President Kamala Harris.

He plans to skip the Democratic National Convention. And the Democratic senator isn’t going to defend Harris’ record — or offer praise to President Joe Biden or to Harris over their handling of the U.S.-Mexico border.

Instead, Brown — now embroiled in a high-stakes reelection battle central to the fight for the next Senate majority — is making this calculation: finding a way to disqualify his opponent, Bernie Moreno, in the eyes of GOP-leaning voters and independents. And it starts with attacking Moreno’s character, past business practices and position on abortion — all as he tries to avoid being tied to the top of his ticket.

“It’s not left or right. It’s not who you vote for, for president,” Brown told CNN at a textile company just outside of Cleveland. “It’s who stands up for people in the state.”

How Harris affects Democratic candidates and ballot initiatives
PBS NewsHour, Amy Walter & John YanJuly 28, 2024 (07:33)

Just 100 days out from Election Day, the U.S. political landscape is drastically different than it was a little more than a week ago. The effects of the shakeup on the Democratic presidential ticket are being felt in the battle for the House and Senate and the fight over big issues on the ballot in many states. Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter joins John Yang to discuss.

10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024
CNN, Simone Pathe,July 20, 2024

Democrats faced a challenging path to holding their Senate majority even before President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance and the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump – and they still do. But this year’s Democratic candidates, many of them well-known incumbents, have so far been able to create some separation from the top of the ticket. The question going forward, regardless of what Biden does, is whether they can sustain it.

Nine of the top 10 seats on CNN’s latest ranking of the Senate seats most likely to flip are held by Democrats (or independents who caucus with them). And assuming Republicans flip West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring, the GOP just needs to win the White House or pick up one more Senate seat to win the majority.

That’s a tough landscape for Democrats – especially when they’re defending seats in states that either twice voted comfortably for Trump (Montana and Ohio) or are presidential battlegrounds, and when Biden is so far defying intraparty warnings that his candidacy could cause a GOP “landslide.” Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown – the two most vulnerable incumbents running for reelection – said this week that Biden should exit the race.

The stakes for Democrats in their extraordinary public schism over whether President Joe Biden should withdraw from the 2024 presidential race extend far beyond the White House. A decisive loss at the top of the ticket could cost Democrats control of the US Senate for the remainder of this decade and cement Republican dominance of the Supreme Court for a generation.

So far, Democratic anxiety about the presidential race’s impact on the Senate has been muted because public polling has almost invariably shown their candidates still leading in the key states where Biden has fallen behind former President Donald Trump. But recent history raises deep questions about whether Democratic Senate candidates can continue to levitate as far above the presidential ticket as polls now show.

About

Overview

The 2024 United States Senate elections are scheduled to be held on November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. 33 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested in regular elections. Senators are divided into three classes whose six-year terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every two years. Class 1 senators will face election in 2024.

As of July 2024, 26 senators (15 Democrats, nine Republicans, and two independents) are seeking reelection in 2024.  Two Republicans (Mike Braun of Indiana and Mitt Romney of Utah), three Democrats (Ben Cardin of Maryland, Tom Carper of Delaware, and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan), and two independents (Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia) are not seeking reelection. Laphonza Butler of California, a Democrat who was appointed to her current seat in 2023, is not seeking election in 2024.

Two special Senate elections will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections: one in California, to fill the final two months of Senator Dianne Feinstein’s term following her death in September of 2023, and one in Nebraska, to fill the remaining two years of Ben Sasse’s term following his resignation in January of 2023.

Elections analysts consider the map for these Senate elections to be highly unfavorable to Democrats. Democrats will be defending 23 of the 33 Class 1 seats. Three seats being defended by Democrats are in states won by Republican Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020, while there are no seats in this class held by Republicans in states won by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. In the previous two Senate election cycles that coincided with presidential elections (2016 and 2020), only one senator (Susan Collins in 2020) was elected in a state that was simultaneously won by the presidential nominee of the opposite party.

Source: Wikipedia

Web Links

Competitive Races

We have summarized in this post the 10 US House races that the Cook Political Report as of May 17, 2024 identified as competitive – Toss-ups, Lean D, Likely D, and Likely R.

Pennsylvania Senate Race

2024 PA Senate Race

The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024.  The seat is currently held by Bob Casey.

The two leading candidates are Bob Casey – Democrat and David McCormick – Republican.

The race is considered to be competitive given the state’s nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Casey to be the slight favorite to win.

The Pennsylvania Libertarian Party officially nominated John Thomas at the party’s state convention on March 2, 2024.

OnAir Post: 2024 PA Senate Race

Ohio Senate Race

2024 OH Senate Race

The two leading candidates are Sherrod Brown – Democrat and Bernie Moreno – Republican.

Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office, while the Republican Party. This race is one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators are seeking re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Brown’s re-election is considered essential for Democrats’ chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. The last time Republicans won this seat was in 2000.
OnAir Post: 2024 OH Senate Race

Montana Senate Race

2024 MT Senate Race

The 2024 United States House District 7 election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024.  The seat is currently held by Jon Tester.

The two leading candidates are Jon Tester – Democrat and Tim Sheehy– Republican.

Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term in office. This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in states Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Ohio and West Virginia. Tester’s re-election is considered essential for Democrats’ chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[1] Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024. The last time Republicans won this seat was in 2000.

OnAir Post: 2024 MT Senate Race

Nevada Senate Race

2024 NV Senate Race

The 2024 United States House District 7 election in Nevada will be held on November 5, 2024.  The seat is currently held by Jacky Rosen .

The two leading candidates are Jacky Rosen – Democrat and Sam Brown– Republican.

Senator Jacky Rosen, elected in 2018 over incumbent Republican Dean Heller, is seeking a second term in office. Primary elections took place on June 11, 2024.

OnAir Post: 2024 NV Senate Race

Wisconsin Senate Race

2024 WI Senate Race

The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin will be held on November 5, 2024.  The seat is currently held by Tammy Baldwin .

The two leading candidates are Tammy Baldwin  – Democrat and Eric Hovde – Republican.

Incumbent two-term Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin was re-elected with 55.4% of the vote in 2018. She announced she would be running for re-election on April 12, 2023.

OnAir Post: 2024 WI Senate Race

Texas Senate Race

2024 TX Senate Race

The 2024 United States House District 7 election in Texas will be held on November 5, 2024.  The seat is currently held by Ted Cruz.

The two leading candidates are Ted Cruz – Republican and Colin Allred – Democrat.

U.S. Representative Colin Allred won the Democratic nomination to challenge Cruz. If he wins, he will become the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988 and the first Democrat to win any statewide election in Texas since 1994.

OnAir Post: 2024 TX Senate Race

Florida Senate Race

2024 FL Senate Race

 

The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida will be held on November 5, 2024.  The seat is currently held by Rick Scott.

The two leading candidates are Debbie Mucarsel-Powell– Democrat and Rick Scott – Republican.

Senator Rick Scott was elected with 50.05% of the vote in 2018. He is running for re-election to a second term in office.

Primary elections will take place on August 20, 2024.

OnAir Post: 2024 FL Senate Race

Maryland Senate Race

2024 MD Senate Race

The 2024 United States Senate election in Maryland will be held on November 5, 2024.  The seat is currently held by Ben Cardin.

The two leading candidates are Angela Alsobrooks – Democrat and Larry Hogan – Republican.

Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Ben Cardin was re-elected in 2018 with 64.9% of the vote. On May 1, 2023, he announced that he would not be seeking re-election to a fourth term in office.

OnAir Post: 2024 MD Senate Race

Arizona Senate Race

2024 AZ Senate Race

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024.  The seat is currently held by Kyrsten Sinema.

The two leading candidates are Ruben Gallego  – Democrat and Kari Lake – Republican.

Incumbent first-term independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with roughly 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent in April 2023.[2] However, in March 2024, Sinema announced that she would not run for a second term, U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake ran for the Republican nomination.

OnAir Post: 2024 AZ Senate Race

Michigan Senate Race

2024 MI Senate Race

The 2024 United States Senate election in Michigan will be held on November 5, 2024.  The seat is currently held by Debbie Stabenow .

The two leading candidates are Elissa Slotkin – Democrat and Mike Rogers – Republican.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow was first elected in 2000, defeating incumbent Republican Spencer Abraham. Stabenow was most recently re-elected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote, and announced on January 5, 2023 that she would not seek a fifth term in office. This will be the first open race for this seat since 1994, which was the only time since 1972 that Republicans won a Michigan U.S. Senate race.

OnAir Post: 2024 MI Senate Race

More Information

Wikipedia

The 2024 United States Senate elections are scheduled to be held on November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. 33 out of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested in regular elections.[3][4] Senators are divided into 3 classes whose 6-year terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every 2 years.[5] Class 1 senators will face election in 2024.[6]

As of October 2024, 26 senators (15 Democrats, 9 Republicans, and 2 independents) are seeking re-election in 2024.[7] 2 Republicans (Mike Braun of Indiana and Mitt Romney of Utah), 3 Democrats (Ben Cardin of Maryland, Tom Carper of Delaware, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan), and 2 Independents (Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia) are not seeking reelection.[8][9][10][11][12][13][14] Laphonza Butler of California and George Helmy of New Jersey, Democrats who were appointed to their current seats in 2023 and 2024, respectively, are not seeking election in 2024.[15][16]

2 special Senate elections will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections: one in California, to fill the final two months of Dianne Feinstein‘s term following her death in September 2023; and one in Nebraska, to fill the remaining two years of Ben Sasse's term following his resignation in January 2023.[17][13][18]

Partisan composition

All 33 Class 1 Senate seats, and one Class 2 seat are up for election in 2024; Class 1 currently consists of 20 Democrats, 4 independents who caucus with the Senate Democrats,[d] and 10 Republicans.

Election analysts consider the map for these Senate elections to be highly unfavorable to Democrats. Democrats will be defending 23 of the 33 Class 1 seats.[21] Three seats being defended by Democrats are in states won by Republican Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020, while there are no seats in this class held by Republicans in states won by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. In the previous Senate election cycle that coincided with a presidential election (2020), only one senator (Susan Collins of Maine) was elected in a state that was simultaneously won by the presidential nominee of the opposite party.[22]

Summary results

Seats

PartiesTotal
DemocraticIndependentRepublican
Last elections (2022)49249100
Before these elections47449100
Not up283866
Class 2 (20202026)131932
Class 3 (20222028)151934
Up19[e]4[f]1133
Class 1 (2018→2024)21[f]21033
Special: Class 1 & 21[e]1[g]2
General election
Incumbent retiring5[e]229
Held by same party
Replaced by other party
Result
Incumbent running132823
Won re-election
Lost re-election
ResultTBATBATBATBA
Special elections
Appointee retiring1[e]1
Appointee running1[g]1
Individuals elected
Result
ResultTBATBATBA100

Change in composition

Each block represents one of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate. “D#” is a Democratic/active senator, “I#” is an Independent senator, and “R#” is a Republican/active senator. They are arranged so that the parties are separated, and a majority is clear by crossing the middle.

Before the elections

Each block indicates an incumbent senator’s actions going into the election.

D1D2D3D4D5D6D7D8D9D10
D20D19D18D17D16D15D14D13D12D11
D21D22D23D24D25D26D27D28D29
Calif.
Retiring
D30
Conn.
Running
D40
N.M.
Running
D39
N.J.
Retiring
D38
Nev.
Running
D37
Mont.
Running
D36
Minn.
Running
D35
Mich.
Retiring
D34
Mass.
Running
D33
Md.
Retiring
D32
Hawaii
Running
D31
Del.
Retiring
D41
N.Y.
Running
D42
Ohio
Running
D43
Pa.
Running
D44
R.I.
Running
D45
Va.
Running
D46
Wash.
Running
D47
Wis.
Running
I1
Ariz.
Retiring
I2
Maine
Running
I3
Vt.
Running
Majority (with Independents) ↑
R41
Miss.
Running
R42
Mo.
Running
R43
Neb. (reg)
Running
R44
Neb. (sp)
Running
R45
N.D.
Running
R46
Tenn.
Running
R47
Texas
Running
R48
Utah
Retiring
R49
Wyo.
Running
I4
W.Va.
Retiring
R40
Ind.
Retiring
R39
Fla.
Running
R38R37R36R35R34R33R32R31
R21R22R23R24R25R26R27R28R29R30
R20R19R18R17R16R15R14R13R12R11
R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9R10

After the elections

D1D2D3D4D5D6D7D8D9D10
D20D19D18D17D16D15D14D13D12D11
D21D22D23D24D25D26D27D28Ariz.
TBD
Calif.
TBD
Minn.
TBD
Mich.
TBD
Mass.
TBD
Md.
TBD
Maine
TBD
Ind.
TBD
Hawaii
TBD
Fla.
TBD
Del.
TBD
Conn.
TBD
Mont.
TBD
Miss.
TBD
Mo.
TBD
N.D.
TBD
Neb. (reg)
TBD
Neb. (sp)
TBD
Nev.
TBD
N.J.
TBD
N.M.
TBD
N.Y.
TBD
Majority TBD →
W.Va.
TBD
Wash.
TBD
Va.
TBD
Vt.
TBD
Utah
TBD
Texas
TBD
Tenn.
TBD
R.I.
TBD
Pa.
TBD
Ohio
TBD
Wis.
TBD
Wyo.
TBD
R38R37R36R35R34R33R32R31
R21R22R23R24R25R26R27R28R29R30
R20R19R18R17R16R15R14R13R12R11
R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9R10
Key
D#Democratic
R#Republican
I#Independent, caucusing with Democrats

Predictions

Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent was running for reelection) and the other candidates, and the state’s partisan lean (reflected in part by the state’s Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party had in winning that seat. Most election predictors used:

  • tossup“: no advantage
  • tilt” (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as “lean”
  • lean” or “leans“: slight advantage
  • likely“: significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • safe” or “solid“: near-certain chance of victory
ConstituencyIncumbentRatings
StatePVI[23]SenatorLast
election[h]
Cook
Oct. 21,
2024
[24]
IE
Oct. 18,
2024
[25]
Sabato
Oct. 24,
2024
[26]
RCP
Oct. 30,
2024
[27]
CNalysis
Oct. 30,
2024
[28]
DDHQ/The Hill
Oct. 30,
2024
[29]
Fox
Oct. 29,
2024
[30]
538
Oct. 31,
2024
[31]
ArizonaR+2Kyrsten Sinema
(retiring)
50.0% D[i]Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLikely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)
California[j]D+13Laphonza Butler
(retiring)
Appointed
(2023)[k]
Solid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid D
ConnecticutD+7Chris Murphy59.5% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid D
DelawareD+7Tom Carper
(retiring)
60.0% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid D
FloridaR+3Rick Scott50.1% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely R
HawaiiD+14Mazie Hirono71.2% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid D
IndianaR+11Mike Braun
(retiring)
50.7% RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid R
MaineD+2Angus King54.3% ISolid ISolid ISafe ISolid ISolid ISafe ISolid ILikely I
MarylandD+14Ben Cardin
(retiring)
64.9% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLean DSolid DSafe DLean DSolid D
MassachusettsD+15Elizabeth Warren60.3% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid D
MichiganR+1Debbie Stabenow
(retiring)
52.3% DTossupTilt DLean DTossupTilt DLean DTossupLikely D
MinnesotaD+1Amy Klobuchar60.3% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid D
MississippiR+11Roger Wicker58.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid R
MissouriR+10Josh Hawley51.4% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely RSolid RLikely RSolid RSolid R
MontanaR+11Jon Tester50.3% DLean R (flip)Tilt R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Tilt R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip)
Nebraska
(regular)
R+13Deb Fischer57.7% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely R
Nebraska
(special)
R+13Pete RickettsAppointed
(2023)[l]
Solid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid R
NevadaR+1Jacky Rosen50.4% DLean DLean DLean DTossupLikely DLikely DLean DLikely D
New JerseyD+6George Helmy
(retiring)
Appointed
(2024)[m]
Solid DSolid DSafe DLikely DSolid DSafe DSolid DLikely D
New MexicoD+3Martin Heinrich54.1% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLean DSolid DSafe DLikely DSolid D
New YorkD+10Kirsten Gillibrand67.0% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid D
North DakotaR+20Kevin Cramer55.1% RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid R
OhioR+6Sherrod Brown53.4% DTossupTossupTossupTossupTossupTossupTossupTossup
PennsylvaniaR+2Bob Casey Jr.55.7% DTossupTilt DLean DTossupLean DLean DTossupLean D
Rhode IslandD+8Sheldon Whitehouse61.4% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid D
TennesseeR+14Marsha Blackburn54.7% RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid R
TexasR+5Ted Cruz50.9% RLean RLean RLikely RTossupTilt RLean RLikely RLikely R
UtahR+13Mitt Romney
(retiring)
62.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid R
VermontD+16Bernie Sanders67.4% ISolid ISolid ISafe ISolid ISolid ISafe ISolid ISolid I
VirginiaD+3Tim Kaine57.0% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely DSolid DLikely DSolid DSolid D
WashingtonD+8Maria Cantwell58.3% DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid DSafe DSolid DSolid D
West VirginiaR+22Joe Manchin
(retiring)
49.6% D[n]Solid R (flip)Solid R (flip)Safe R (flip)Solid R (flip)Solid R (flip)Safe R (flip)Solid R (flip)Solid R (flip)
WisconsinR+2Tammy Baldwin55.4% DTossupTilt DLean DTossupTilt DTossupTossupLean D
WyomingR+25John Barrasso67.0% RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid RSafe RSolid RSolid R
Overall[o]D/I – 45
R – 51
4 tossups
D/I – 48
R – 51
1 tossup
D/I – 48
R – 51
1 tossup
D/I – 43
R – 50
7 tossups
D/I – 48
R – 51
1 tossup
D/I – 47
R – 51
2 tossups
D/I – 45
R – 51
4 tossups
D/I – 48
R – 51
1 tossup

Retirements

Nine senators have announced plans to retire. Senator Dianne Feinstein had previously announced her intent to retire at the end of her term; however, she died on September 29, 2023.

StateSenatorRef
ArizonaKyrsten Sinema[14]
CaliforniaLaphonza Butler[15]
DelawareTom Carper[10]
IndianaMike Braun[8]
MarylandBen Cardin[9]
MichiganDebbie Stabenow[13]
New JerseyGeorge Helmy[16]
UtahMitt Romney[11]
West VirginiaJoe Manchin[12]

Race summary

Special elections during the preceding Congress

In each special election, the winner’s term begins immediately after their election is certified by their state’s government.

Elections are sorted by date then state.

StateIncumbentStatusCandidates
SenatorPartyElectoral history
California
(Class 1)
Laphonza ButlerDemocratic2023 (appointed)Interim appointee retiring.[15]
Nebraska
(Class 2)
Pete RickettsRepublican2023 (appointed)Interim appointee nominated.

Elections leading to the next Congress

In these general elections, the winners will be elected for the term beginning January 3, 2025.

StateIncumbentCandidates
SenatorPartyElectoral historyLast raceResult
ArizonaKyrsten SinemaIndependent2018[i]50.0% DIncumbent retiring.[14]
CaliforniaLaphonza ButlerDemocratic2023 (appointed)54.2% D[k]Interim appointee retiring.[15]
ConnecticutChris MurphyDemocratic2012
2018
59.5% DIncumbent renominated.
DelawareTom CarperDemocratic2000
2006
2012
2018
60.0% DIncumbent retiring.[10]
FloridaRick ScottRepublican201850.1% RIncumbent renominated.
HawaiiMazie HironoDemocratic2012
2018
71.2% DIncumbent renominated.
IndianaMike BraunRepublican201850.7% RIncumbent retiring to
run for governor.[8]
MaineAngus KingIndependent2012
2018
54.3% IIncumbent running.
MarylandBen CardinDemocratic2006
2012
2018
64.9% DIncumbent retiring.[9]
MassachusettsElizabeth WarrenDemocratic2012
2018
60.3% DIncumbent renominated.
MichiganDebbie StabenowDemocratic2000
2006
2012
2018
52.3% DIncumbent retiring.[13]
MinnesotaAmy KlobucharDFL2006
2012
2018
60.3% DFLIncumbent renominated.
MississippiRoger WickerRepublican2007 (appointed)
2008 (special)
2012
2018
58.5% RIncumbent renominated.
MissouriJosh HawleyRepublican201851.4% RIncumbent renominated.
MontanaJon TesterDemocratic2006
2012
2018
50.3% DIncumbent renominated.
NebraskaDeb FischerRepublican2012
2018
57.7% RIncumbent renominated.
NevadaJacky RosenDemocratic201850.4% DIncumbent renominated.
New JerseyGeorge HelmyDemocratic2024 (appointed)54.0% D[m]Interim appointee retiring.[16]
New MexicoMartin HeinrichDemocratic2012
2018
54.1% DIncumbent renominated.
New YorkKirsten GillibrandDemocratic2009 (appointed)
2010 (special)
2012
2018
67.0% DIncumbent renominated.
North DakotaKevin CramerRepublican201855.1% RIncumbent renominated.
OhioSherrod BrownDemocratic2006
2012
2018
53.4% DIncumbent renominated.
PennsylvaniaBob Casey Jr.Democratic2006
2012
2018
55.7% DIncumbent renominated.
Rhode IslandSheldon WhitehouseDemocratic2006
2012
2018
61.4% DIncumbent renominated.
TennesseeMarsha BlackburnRepublican201854.7% RIncumbent renominated.
TexasTed CruzRepublican2012
2018
50.9% RIncumbent renominated.
UtahMitt RomneyRepublican201862.6% RIncumbent retiring.[11]
VermontBernie SandersIndependent2006
2012
2018
67.4% IIncumbent running.
VirginiaTim KaineDemocratic2012
2018
57.0% DIncumbent renominated.
WashingtonMaria CantwellDemocratic2000
2006
2012
2018
58.3% DIncumbent renominated.
West VirginiaJoe ManchinIndependent2010 (special)[n]
2012
2018
49.6% DIncumbent retiring.[12]
WisconsinTammy BaldwinDemocratic2012
2018
55.4% DIncumbent renominated.
WyomingJohn BarrassoRepublican2007 (appointed)
2008 (special)
2012
2018
67.0% RIncumbent renominated.

Arizona

One-term independent Kyrsten Sinema was narrowly elected in 2018 as a Democrat with 50.0% of the vote. She left the Democratic Party in December 2022.[75] Sinema announced on March 5, 2024, that she would not run for reelection.[76]

Prior to her retirement announcement, Sinema was considered vulnerable to challengers from the Democratic Party due to her opposition to some of President Joe Biden‘s agenda,[77] and U.S. representative Ruben Gallego launched an early bid for the Democratic nomination, which he won with no opposition.[78][79]

Among Republicans, Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake have announced their candidacies.[80][81] Lake won the Republican primary by less than expected.

California

Five-term Democrat Dianne Feinstein was reelected in 2018 with 54.2% of the vote against another Democrat. On February 14, 2023, Feinstein announced that she would not seek reelection to a sixth term.[82] However, she died on September 29, 2023, leaving the seat vacant. Democrat Laphonza Butler, president of EMILY’s List, was appointed by California Governor Gavin Newsom to succeed Feinstein on October 2, 2023.[83] Butler is not running for election to a full term, or for the final two months of the current term.[15]

There were three major Democratic candidates for the seat — U.S. representatives Barbara Lee, Katie Porter, and Adam Schiff — along with former professional baseball player Steve Garvey running as a Republican.[84][85][86][87][88] Schiff was viewed as representing the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, while Porter and Lee represent the progressive wing.[89]

Schiff and Garvey won the non-partisan primary election which took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday, setting up a general election campaign between the two.[89]

Due to California’s election rules, similar to the previous election for the other seat, there will be two ballot items for the same seat: a general election, to elect a Class 1 senator to a full term beginning with the 119th United States Congress, to be sworn in on January 3, 2025; and a special election to fill that seat for the final weeks of the 118th Congress.

Connecticut

Two-term Democrat Chris Murphy was reelected in 2018 with 59.5% of the vote. He has announced he is running for a third term.[90] Beacon Falls First Selectman Gerry Smith announced his campaign in early February 2024.[91] The Republican primary was won by tavern owner Matthew Corey,[92] who was the Republican nominee in 2018.[93]

Delaware

Four-term Democrat Tom Carper was reelected in 2018 with 60.0% of the vote. He announced on May 22, 2023, that he will be retiring, and will not run for a fifth term.[94]

Delaware’s at-large U.S. representative Lisa Blunt Rochester is running for the Democratic nomination to succeed Carper, who endorsed her when he announced his retirement.[95][96]

Term-limited governor John Carney was also considered a possible Democratic candidate.[94][97] Carney announced that he is running for mayor of Wilmington.[98]

Among Republicans, businessman Eric Hansen has announced his candidacy.[99]

Florida

Former governor and incumbent one-term Republican Rick Scott was narrowly elected in 2018 with 50.06% of the vote. He is running for reelection to a second term.[100] Brevard County assistant district attorney Keith Gross and actor John Columbus are challenging Scott for the Republican nomination.[101][102]

Former U.S. representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is running for the Democratic nomination to challenge Scott.[103]

Hawaii

Two-term Democrat Mazie Hirono was reelected in 2018 with 71.2% of the vote. Hirono is running for a third term.[37] Former state representative Bob McDermott won a 6-candidate race to be the Republican nominee.[104]

Indiana

One-term Republican Mike Braun was elected in 2018 with 50.8% of the vote. Braun is retiring to prepare to run for governor of Indiana.[8] U.S. representative Jim Banks ran unopposed in the primary after his only competition, businessman John Rust, was disqualified.[105]

Psychologist Valerie McCray defeated former state representative Marc Carmichael for the Democratic nomination.[106]

Maine

Two-term Independent incumbent Angus King was reelected in 2018 with 54.3% of the vote in a three-candidate election. He intends to run for a third term despite previously hinting that he may retire.[107]

Democratic consultant David Costello and dentist Demitroula Kouzounas, a former Maine Republican Party chair, each won their respective party primaries unopposed.[108] They will both face King in the general election in November.

Maryland

Three-term Democrat Ben Cardin was reelected in 2018 with 64.9% of the vote. On May 1, 2023, Cardin announced he is not running for reelection.[109]

Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks defeated U.S. representative David Trone for the Democratic nomination after a contentious primary, where Trone spent heavily from his personal wealth while Alsobrooks had the support of most elected Democrats.[110]

Former governor Larry Hogan easily defeated conservative former state delegate Robin Ficker for the Republican nomination.[111] A popular moderate known for his political independence, Hogan had previously declined to run,[112] but unexpectedly filed to run hours before the candidate filing deadline.[45]

Massachusetts

Two-term Democrat Elizabeth Warren was reelected in 2018 with 60.3% of the vote. On March 27, 2023, Warren announced that she is running for reelection.[113]

Software company owner Robert Antonellis,[114] Quincy City Council president Ian Cain,[115] and attorney John Deaton[116] are running as Republicans.

Michigan

Four-term Democrat Debbie Stabenow was reelected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote. She announced on January 5, 2023, that she will retire, and will not run for a fifth term.[13]

Representative Elissa Slotkin,[117] and state representative Leslie Love[118] have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination. Businessman and 2006 Republican candidate for this seat Nasser Beydoun has also declared his candidacy as a Democrat.[119] Actor Hill Harper announced his campaign for the Democratic nomination in July 2023.[120]

The primary took place on August 6, 2024. Former U.S. representatives Mike Rogers, Justin Amash, and hedge fund manager Sandy Pensler[121] are running for the Republican nomination.[122][123][124][125]

Representative John James, the Republican nominee for this seat in 2018 and for Michigan’s other Senate seat in 2020, declined to run.[126]

The nominees are Slotkin and Rogers, who easily won their primaries as expected.

Minnesota

Three-term Democrat Amy Klobuchar was reelected in 2018 with 60.3% of the vote. She is running for a fourth term.[37]

In the August 13 Republican primary, former NBA basketball player Royce White won an eight-candidate primary with 38% of the vote, with banker and retired U.S. Navy commander Joe Fraser finishing second with 29% of the vote[127]
Third party candidates consist of guardianship advocate and Republican candidate for governor in 2022, Independence-Alliance Party candidate, Joyce Lacy.[128]

Mississippi

Two-term Republican Roger Wicker was reelected in 2018 with 58.5% of the vote. Wicker is running for a third full term. He faced a primary challenge from conservative state representative Dan Eubanks and won by a comfortable margin.[129] Wicker will face Democratic lawyer Ty Pinkins in the general election.[130]

Missouri

One-term Republican Josh Hawley was elected in 2018 with 51.4% of the vote. He is running for reelection.[131]

Marine Veteran Lucas Kunce, who ran unsuccessfully for the Class III seat in 2022, won the Democratic nomination on August 6, 2024.[132]

Montana

Three-term Democrat Jon Tester was narrowly reelected in 2018 with 50.3% of the vote. On February 22, 2023, he announced he is running for a fourth term. Tester is one of two Democratic senators running for reelection who represent states won by Republican Donald Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.[133]

Businessman and former Navy SEAL officer Tim Sheehy won the Republican nomination.[134] U.S. representative Matt Rosendale, also a Republican, ran against Sheehy for the nomination in February[135] but withdrew from the race days later.[136]

Nebraska

There will be two elections in Nebraska, due to the resignation of Ben Sasse.

Nebraska (regular)

Two-term Republican Deb Fischer was reelected in 2018 with 57.7% of the vote. On May 14, 2021, Fischer announced she is seeking reelection, despite previously declaring an intention to retire.[137]

Dan Osborn, a union leader and steamfitter, is running as an independent. Since Osborn declared, the Democratic Party fielded no candidates in order to endorse him, but he stated he would accept the help of no parties.[138]

Nebraska (special)

Two-term Republican Ben Sasse resigned his seat on January 8, 2023, to become president of the University of Florida.[139][17] Former Governor and 2006 Senate nominee Pete Ricketts was appointed by Governor Jim Pillen and a special election for the seat will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections. Ricketts defeated Air Force veteran John Glen Weaver for the Republican nomination.[140] Former University of Nebraska Omaha professor Preston Love Jr. is running as a Democrat.[141]

Nevada

One-term Democrat Jacky Rosen was elected in 2018 with 50.4% of the vote. Rosen is running for a second term.[37]

Veteran and 2022 Senate candidate Sam Brown was declared the Republican nominee after winning the June 11 primary.[142] Brown easily won against former ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Ross Gunter and former state assemblyman Jim Marchant, among others.

New Jersey

Democrat Bob Menendez was reelected in 2018 with 54.0% of the vote. On July 13, 2021, The New Jersey Globe reported that Menendez planned to run for a fourth full term.[143][144] On September 22, 2023, Menendez was indicted on federal bribery charges.[145] On March 14, 2024, a week after his planned retirement, Menendez reversed his decision and attempted to run for re-election as an Independent candidate.[146] Following his conviction on July 16, he announced that he would resign on August 20 and suspend his candidacy.[147][148] Governor Phil Murphy announced that day he would appoint George Helmy, his former chief of staff, to serve as the caretaker before the election.[149]

Financier and current first lady of New Jersey Tammy Murphy also ran for the Democratic nomination, but ended her campaign in March 2024.[150]

Mendham mayor Christine Serrano Glassner[151] and real estate developer Curtis Bashaw[152] ran for the Republican nomination.[153] On June 4, 2024, Bashaw won the Republican primary in an upset.[154]

New Mexico

Two-term Democrat Martin Heinrich was reelected in 2018 with 54.1% of the vote in a three-candidate race. He is running for a third term.[155] Hedge fund executive Nella Domenici, whose father Pete served in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009, announced her candidacy for the Republican nomination on January 17, 2024.[156]

New York

Two-term Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was reelected in 2018 with 67.0% of the vote. She is running for a third full term.[157]

Former New York City Police detective Mike Sapraicone has declared his candidacy as a Republican.[158]

North Dakota

One-term Republican Kevin Cramer was elected in 2018 with 55.1% of the vote. Cramer is running for re-election.[159]

Democrat Katrina Christiansen, an engineering professor from the University of Jamestown and candidate for the Senate in 2022 is her party’s nominee.[59]

Ohio

Three-term Democrat Sherrod Brown was reelected in 2018 with 53.4% of the vote. Brown is running for a fourth term. He is also one of two Democratic senators running for reelection who represent states won by Republican Donald Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.[160]

The Republican nominee is businessman Bernie Moreno, who defeated state senator Matt Dolan and secretary of state Frank LaRose in the primary election.[161]

Pennsylvania

Three-term Democrat Bob Casey Jr., was reelected in 2018 with 55.7% of the vote. Casey is running for a fourth term.[162] He is being challenged by engineer Blaine Forkner.[163]

2022 Senate candidate David McCormick is running for the Republican nomination.[164][165][166][167][168][169] On September 30, 2023, the Pennsylvania Republican Party endorsed McCormick.[170]

Rhode Island

Three-term Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse was reelected in 2018 with 61.4% of the vote. He is running for a fourth term. Republicans who have announced their candidacies include state representative Patricia Morgan[171] and IT professional Raymond McKay.[172]

Tennessee

One-term Republican Marsha Blackburn was elected in 2018 with 54.7% of the vote. Blackburn has filed paperwork to run for reelection. The Democratic nominee is state representative Gloria Johnson.[173]

Texas

Two-term Republican Ted Cruz was narrowly reelected in 2018 with 50.9% of the vote. Cruz is running for a third term.[174]

The Democratic nominee is U.S. representative Colin Allred, who defeated state senator Roland Gutierrez and state representative Carl Sherman in the primary election.[175][176]

Utah

One-term Republican Mitt Romney was elected in 2018 with 62.6% of the vote. On September 13, 2023, Romney announced he would not seek reelection in 2024.[177]

The Republican nominee is U.S. representative John Curtis,[178] who defeated Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs,[179] and state House speaker Brad Wilson,[180] in the primary election.

The Democratic nominee is professional skier Caroline Gleich.[181]

Vermont

Three-term independent Bernie Sanders was re-elected in 2018 with 67.4% of the vote. He is being challenged by artist Cris Ericson, an independent perennial candidate.[182] Businessman Gerald Malloy, who was the Republican nominee for the Senate in 2022, secured the Republican nomination unopposed.[183]

Virginia

Two-term Democrat Tim Kaine was reelected in 2018 with 57.0% of the vote. On January 20, 2023, he confirmed he is running for reelection to a third term.[184] Governor Glenn Youngkin, who will be term-limited in 2025, was considered a possible Republican candidate.[185]

On July 18, 2023, Navy veteran Hung Cao announced he would run as a Republican. Cao unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. House of Representatives against Democrat Jennifer Wexton in 2022.[186]

Washington

Four-term Democrat Maria Cantwell was reelected in 2018 with 58.3% of the vote.

Emergency room physician Raul Garcia announced that he would run as a Republican.[187]

West Virginia

Independent Joe Manchin, who was elected as a Democrat, was re-elected in 2018 with 49.6% of the vote. On November 9, 2023, Manchin announced he would not seek re-election.[12] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have since rated this seat as expected to flip to GOP control, which would put this seat in Republican hands for the first time in 68 years.

Popular Governor Jim Justice easily defeated U.S. representative Alex Mooney[188] in the Republican primary.

Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott, who has Manchin’s endorsement,[189] defeated community organizer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran Zachary Shrewsbury and former coal executive Don Blankenship in the primary for the Democratic Party nomination.[190]

Wisconsin

Two-term Democrat Tammy Baldwin was reelected in 2018 with 55.4% of the vote. She is running for reelection.[73] Californian hedge fund manager Eric Hovde, candidate for the Senate in 2012, announced a second attempt at the Republican nomination. Former Milwaukee County sheriff David Clarke[191] was seen as a potential Republican challenger to Hovde’s bid, but never ended up beginning a campaign for Senate.[192][193]

Wyoming

Republican John Barrasso was reelected in 2018 with 67.0% of the vote. On April 19, 2024, Barrasso announced he would run for reelection.[194] Former Postal Union president Scott Morrow is the Democratic nominee.[195]

Barrasso easily defeated his Republican primary challengers John Holtz and Reid Rasner on August 20, 2024.[196]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Majority control in an evenly divided Senate is determined by the Vice President of the United States, who has the power to break tied votes in their constitutional capacity as President of the Senate; accordingly, Senate control requires 51 seats or 50 seats with control of the vice presidency.
  2. ^ a b All 4 independent senators (Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Angus King of Maine, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, and Joe Manchin of West Virginia) caucus with the Senate Democrats.[1][2]
  3. ^ The U.S. vice president, who will be determined in 2024, breaks ties in a 50–50 Senate. Republicans need 50 seats if they win the vice presidency or 51 if they do not.
  4. ^ Before the end of the 117th Congress, Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party and became an independent. She later announced her retirement in March 2024.[19] In May 2024, Joe Manchin also announced he had left the Democratic Party and registered as an independent, citing “broken politics” as the deciding factor in his decision.[20]
  5. ^ a b c d Includes two interim appointees Laphonza Butler (California) and George Helmy (New Jersey) did not seek election to finish the term.
  6. ^ a b The Independent Democrat incumbent Senators, Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, decided not to run re-election.
  7. ^ a b Includes the interim appointee from Nebraska (Pete Ricketts) running for election.
  8. ^ The last elections for this group of senators were in 2018, except for those elected in a special election or who were appointed after the resignation or death of a sitting senator, as noted.
  9. ^ a b Sinema was elected as a Democrat, and switched to being an independent in December 2022.
  10. ^ In both the regular election and the special election.
  11. ^ a b Democrat Dianne Feinstein won with 54.2% of the vote in 2018 against a fellow Democrat, but died in office on September 29, 2023.
  12. ^ Republican Ben Sasse won with 62.7% of the vote in 2020, but resigned January 8, 2023, to become president of the University of Florida.
  13. ^ a b Democrat Bob Menendez won with 54.0% of the vote in 2018, but resigned August 20, 2024, due to criminal convictions.[32]
  14. ^ a b Manchin was elected as a Democrat, and switched to being an independent in May 2024.
  15. ^ Democratic total includes Independents who caucus with the Democrats.
  16. ^ In October 2023, Butler was appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator Dianne Feinstein.

References

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