What’s the background on the race? Georgia is yet another traditionally Republican state where the demographics are slowly getting more favorable for Democrats. The Atlanta suburbs are attracting a lot of college-educated voters who are moving away from the GOP.

Rather than a straightforward Republican vs. Democrat contest, there will be an all-party primary on Election Day. The presence of Doug Collins, a Trump ally in the House, could be a massive thorn in Loeffler’s side. If no one wins a majority in November, the election could go to a January runoff where the top two candidates would compete. The DSCC has endorsed Warnock, the senior pastor of Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, but Matt Lieberman — the son of former Sen. Joe Lieberman — is also a Democratic candidate.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate this Lean Republican.

Vox by Elle Nielsen on June 11, 2020

David Perdue’s seat was considered less competitive than the Georgia special election with Loeffler, but new polling shows the race there could be tighter than expected. Perdue will be facing Jon Ossoff this fall; the Democrat won his primary on June 9.

Compared to Loeffler, Perdue is not dealing with the same degree of personal baggage or a serious primary challenger, but he’s facing similar dynamics with Georgia’s shifting demographics. The suburbs outside Atlanta in particular are a tricky spot for the GOP, and gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams’s narrow loss in the governor’s race in 2018 spooked Republicans. Perdue has the upper hand, and Democrats will undoubtedly have to spend and organize heavily in Georgia in order to make it truly competitive in November. But the poll numbers on Perdue’s race are still worth watching.

Vox by Elle Nielsen on June 11, 2020

First-term GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is looking to improve upon his 2-point victory in 2014, and Trump at the top of the ticket should help.

We think the Republican candidate will likely win the U.S. Senate race in Alaska.

Politico 11/19/19

Dr. Al Gross, who also is a commercial fisherman, is gunning for Republican Senator Dan Sullivan’s seat. With Gross recently out-fundraising his opponent, the state’s political makeup and the absence of a Democratic candidate, the independent has caught the eye of the Democratic Party. He has snagged endorsements from the state and the national party. Though an independent, Dr. Gross is running in the Alaska Democratic primary and would appear on the general election ballot as a Democrat. Although his past two fundraising quarters have eclipsed Sullivan’s, his total cash on hand is less than half than Sullivan’s $4.5 million.

Newsweek  by Ramsey Touchberry on 5/22/20

Once seen as a more moderate Republican House member, Martha McSally tied herself closely to Trump in 2018 but lost her race against Sinema by a razor-thin margin. Since she was appointed by Arizona’s Republican governor to fill McCain’s seat in 2018, her favorability ratings with voters don’t look great.

Mark Kelly has the financial resources to get his name out there; he has been raising gobs of cash to compete in the general election. He raised $11 million in the first quarter of 2020 and has more than $19 million cash on hand, compared to about $10 million for McSally. That money will become especially important as the coronavirus forces candidates to wage a campaign on voters’ screens in lieu of in-person events. Note: Mark Kelly, will not the Democrats candidate until after August 4 primary.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report rates this a toss-up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic.

Vox by Elle Nielsen on June 11, 2020

Election forecasters believe Colorado is Democrats’ likeliest pickup opportunity in the fall for one big reason: The state has become reliably blue since 2014. There’s a Democratic trifecta in the governor’s mansion and state legislature. Colorado is diversifying, its suburban voters are a prime demographic for Democrats, and polls show many of these voters do not like Trump. Immigration and gun control are two big issues in a state that is home to immigrants and has seen multiple mass shootings. Hickenlooper is double digits ahead of Gardner in recent polls and is fundraising successfully, but the incumbent still has a cash advantage.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report rates this a toss-up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic.

Vox by Elle Nielsen on June 11, 2020

Joni Ernst — a combat veteran and the first woman Iowa has sent to Congress — is up for her first reelection. Republicans see her in a good position, but Democrats are also pouring money into Iowa as they hope to flip it. While Iowa is still seen as a fairly conservative state, Democrats were able to win a couple of key congressional districts in 2018, and Ernst’s approval rating fell 10 points in the past year, according to a recent poll from respected Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer.

The DSCC-backed Greenfield won her June 2 primary, beating out a field of challengers. Theresa Greenfield is a real estate developer in Des Moines and has Iowa roots; she grew up on a farm as the daughter of a crop duster. Greenfield has emphasized issues including health care and strengthening social safety net programs like Medicare and Social Security.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate this Lean Republican.

Vox by Ella Nilsen on June 11, 2020

Yes, Barbara Bollier would be a slight favorite if Kansas Republicans are reckless enough to nominate Kris Kobach on Aug 4. But it’s now clear that Bollier can compete with any Republican nominee, and might actually win. Money is a key reason why. Bollier, like Democrats in other Senate races around the country, has raised an enormous amount of cash — $3.7 million in the latest reporting period, far more than her potential opponents are expected to take in.

U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall remains the mainstream GOP choice, but he hasn’t lit up the scoreboard, either. He remains largely unknown in this part of the state. His campaign strategy, such as it is, consists largely of attaching himself at the hip to Trump.

Kansas City Star by Dave Helling on July 10, 2020

Once seen as one of the most moderate Republicans in the US Senate, Susan Collins is facing what could be her toughest reelection yet. Her reputation as an independent senator willing to break from her party has taken a hit in the Trump era — given her vote for a GOP tax bill and her key confirmation vote for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Still, Collins has proved her staying power in the state for decades and will be tough to beat. She has cruised to reelection in the past, and Republicans will spend heavily to protect her seat. Many Maine voters are fiercely independent — the state elected conservative firebrand Paul LePage twice as governor. Despite Maine going for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Democrats flipping a congressional district in 2018, there are still plenty of red areas in the rural, northern part of the state.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate this a toss-up.

Vox by Elle Nielsen on June 11, 2020

John James has gotten hype from Republicans for out-fundraising Gary Peters in the first quarter of 2020, but money alone may not be enough to flip the Michigan Senate seat. Peters, a long-serving House member before being elected to the Senate in 2014, is up for his first Senate reelection. He keeps a fairly low profile compared to other senators, focusing on issues like health care and jobs for his Upper Midwest state.

Earlier polls showed a potentially competitive race shaping up, but an April Fox News poll showed Peters leading James by 10 points. Michigan will be one of the most closely watched states of the presidential election, and that is sure to trickle down to the Senate race. Although Trump won there in 2016, the state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and Biden is leading in recent polls. And Democrats, for their part, feel Peters’s record of winning his House races will translate to this seat.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate this Lean Democrat.

Vox by Elle Nielsen on June 11, 2020

With the long-awaited entrance of Montana’s popular Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who won his June 2 primary, this once long-shot Senate race is actually competitive. Montana voted for Trump by 20 points in 2016, but the state has an independent streak and reelected Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in 2018, despite an all-out blitz Trump launched against him. While Bullock out-fundraised Sen. Steve Daines in the first quarter of the year, Daines has more money overall and a substantial war chest.

A March poll showed a dead tie, while a more recent Montana State University poll showed Bullock ahead by 5 points. No matter what the outcome is, the race will be extremely close. But Bullock takes the race from being a Republican certainty to a massive question mark.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report rates this a toss-up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Lean Republican.

Vox by Ella Nielsen on June 11, 2020

North Carolina is considered a true swing state in the 2020 presidential election and Senate race because of its changing demographics and swing suburban voters outside of cities like Raleigh, Durham and Charlotte. Senate races in North Carolina are often razor-thin; Thom Tillis won his seat in 2014 by just 46,000 votes — or a single percentage point.

As Tillis closely aligns himself with Trump, Democrats aren’t just planning to seize on Tillis’s record in the US Senate, they are also delving into his tenure leading the North Carolina state House, where he opposed Medicaid expansion and was part of a Republican effort to reduce the state’s unemployment benefits — two things now hurting North Carolina residents out of work. Cal Cunningham, an Iraq War veteran, will likely make the race about Trump as much as possible. Republicans say the state is still fundamentally red.

What are the odds? Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate this a toss-up.

Vox by Elle Nielsen on June 11, 2020

GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham has shored up his right flank, historically a weakness, by embracing Trump. Former state Democratic Party Chair Jaime Harrison is well-funded but faces an uphill battle in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since Fritz Hollings in 1998.

We think the Republican candidate will likely win the U.S. Senate race in South Carolina.
Politico 4/19/2020