2022 TX Governor Race

2022 TX Governor Race

Summary

The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott is running for re-election to a third term. Gubernatorial primaries were held on March 1, 2022. Abbott won the Republican primary, while former U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke won the Democratic primary.

Texas does not have gubernatorial term limits. All statewide elected offices are currently held by Republicans. In his most recent gubernatorial race in 2018, Abbott won with 55.8% of the vote.

Source: Wikipedia

OnAir Post: 2022 TX Governor Race

Greg Abbott

Source: For more information

Greg Abbott

Current Position: Governor since 2018
Affiliation: Republican
Candidate: 2022 Governor
Former Position(s): Ken Paxton Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of Texas from 1996 – 2001

Featured Quote: 
We are fighting for the public safety of Texans who live on the border. We are providing law enforcement plus National Guard. We are beginning to build a wall. We are working to prevent entry by illegal migrants with Covid.

Beto O’Rourke

Source: For more information

Beto O'Rourke

Current Position: Business owner
Affiliation: Democrat
Candidate: 2022 Governor

Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke (born September 26, 1972) is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for Texas’s 16th congressional district from 2013 to 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, O’Rourke was a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018[1] and for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, and is the Democratic nominee for the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election.

O’Rourke was born into a local political family in El Paso, Texas, and is a graduate of Woodberry Forest School and Columbia University. While studying at Columbia, he began a brief music career as bass guitarist in the post-hardcore band Foss. After his college graduation, he returned to El Paso and began a business career. In 2005, he was elected to the El Paso City Council, serving until 2011; he served as mayor pro tempore during his first year in office. O’Rourke was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012 after defeating eight-term incumbent Democrat Silvestre Reyes in the primary.

After being re-elected to the House in 2014 and 2016, O’Rourke declined to seek another term in 2018. Instead, he sought the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Ted Cruz, running a competitive campaign that drew national attention. Despite losing the election to Cruz by a margin of 2.6%, O’Rourke set a record for most votes ever cast for a Democrat in a midterm election in Texas.

On March 14, 2019, O’Rourke announced his candidacy in the 2020 United States presidential election. He suspended his campaign on November 1, 2019, due to a lack of traction and financial issues. He later endorsed Joe Biden, following endorsements by Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg.

O’Rourke is the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, challenging incumbent governor Greg Abbott. O’Rourke won the Democratic nomination for governor on March 1, 2022.

Wikipedia

The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a third term, defeating the Democratic nominee, former Congressman Beto O'Rourke.[1] All statewide elected offices are currently held by Republicans. In his previous gubernatorial race in 2018, Abbott won with 55.8% of the vote.[2]

The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on March 1, 2022. O'Rourke and Abbott won outright majorities in their respective primaries, and therefore did not participate in the May 24 runoffs.

Texas has not elected a Democratic candidate for governor since Ann Richards in 1990. Additionally, Abbott had a strong approval rating on election day, with 55% of voters approving to 45% disapproving.[3] Beto O'Rourke, who gained national attention in 2018 for his unusually close and competitive campaign against Senator Ted Cruz, was widely viewed as a rising star in the Texas Democratic Party and potential challenger for Abbott, but a failed run for President of the United States in 2020 prompted criticisms of opportunism via Republican attempts to brand him as anti-law enforcement and his former stance and disavowed comments on guns.

Abbott won by 10.9%, a slightly smaller margin of victory than his 13.3% margin in 2018 in spite of a much more Republican national climate in 2022, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006, and the closest election of Abbott's entire political career since his first race for the Texas Supreme Court in 1998. Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, performed 8.3% worse than his 2018 Senate run, but he still won the highest share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards received 45.9% in her unsuccessful reelection bid against George W. Bush in 1994. Abbott's raw vote total was less than his 4.65 million in 2018, while O'Rourke set a record of most raw votes for a Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate at around 3.55 million, but it was also less than his 4.04 million vote total in the 2018 Senate race.

Abbott carried 235 out of 254 counties, flipping the heavily Hispanic counties of Culberson and Zapata and becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the latter in the state's history (though Zapata had earlier voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election), while O'Rourke became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win the county of Fort Bend since 1974. O'Rourke outperformed Joe Biden two years prior among Latino voters, though his performance with them was still worse than past nominees.

Republican primary

On June 4, 2021, Texas Republican Party chairman Allen West announced his resignation as party chair.[4] West criticized Gov. Greg Abbott's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas.[5] The history of conflict between West and Abbott included a lawsuit by West and other Republicans challenging Abbott's extension of the early voting period in 2020, as well as a protest outside the Governor's Mansion over pandemic-related shutdowns as well as mask mandates.[6] On July 4, 2021, West announced that he would challenge Abbott in the 2022 gubernatorial primary.[7] Both West and fellow gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines were considered more conservative than Abbott.[8][9] On March 1, 2022, Abbott won the Republican primary by a smaller margin than in 2018.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Greg Abbott
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
State officials
Organizations
Don Huffines
U.S. Senators
U.S. representatives
Texas state representatives
Local officials
  • Don McLaughlin, mayor of Uvalde (2014–present)[44]
Individuals
Allen West
Texas state representatives
Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Don
Huffines
Ricky Lynn
Perry
Chad
Prather
Allen
West
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)February 25–28, 20221,040 (LV)± 3.0%62%10%2%2%15%5%[b]3%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 21–22, 2022522 (LV)± 4.2%61%9%3%3%12%3%[c]9%
UT TylerFebruary 8–15, 2022581 (LV)± 4.4%60%3%6%3%7%5%[d]15%
YouGov/UTJanuary 28 – February 7, 2022375 (LV)± 5.1%60%14%5%3%15%3%[e]
Paradigm Partners (R)[A]January 31, 20221,542 (LV)± 2.5%34%5%6%6%43%3%[f]4%
UT TylerJanuary 18–25, 2022514 (LV)± 5.1%59%4%4%2%6%4%[g]20%
YouGov/UHJanuary 14–24, 2022490 (LV)± 3.7%58%7%3%2%11%2%[h]17%
Paradigm Partners (R)[A]January 9, 20221,486 (LV)± 2.5%33%5%12%3%38%3%[i]7%
Paradigm Partners (R)[A]December 16, 2021447 (LV)± 4.5%33%2%15%1%35%14%
Paradigm Partners (R)[A]November 30, 2021– (LV)42%3%2%36%17%
UT TylerNovember 9–16, 2021520 (LV)± 4.7%65%3%6%6%3%18%
Paradigm Partners (R)[A]November 11, 2021– (LV)43%3%2%33%19%
YouGov/UT/TTOctober 22–31, 2021554 (RV)± 4.2%56%7%4%13%4%16%
YouGov/TXHPFOctober 14–27, 2021405 (LV)± 4.9%61%4%3%13%19%
UT TylerSeptember 7–14, 2021427 (LV)± 6.1%70%15%15%
431 (LV)± 6.0%65%20%15%
Victory Insights (R)July 22–24, 2021400 (RV)± 4.9%80%20%
Paradigm Partners (R)[A]June 30, 2021– (LV)73%17%10%
UT TylerJune 22–29, 2021440 (LV)± 5.4%77%12%11%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Don
Huffines
Sid
Miller
Allen
West
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[B]June 14–17, 2021446 (LV)± 4.6%69%3%3%13%

Results

Results by county:
  Abbott
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanGreg Abbott (incumbent) 1,299,059 66.48%
RepublicanAllen West239,55712.26%
RepublicanDon Huffines234,13811.98%
RepublicanChad Prather74,1733.80%
RepublicanRicky Lynn Perry61,4243.14%
RepublicanKandy Kaye Horn23,6051.21%
RepublicanPaul Belew11,3870.58%
RepublicanDanny Harrison10,8290.55%
Total votes1,954,172 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Jack Daniel Foster Jr., teacher[14]
  • R. Star Locke, veteran[14]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Inocencio
Barrientez
Michael
Cooper
Joy
Diaz
Jack
Foster Jr.
Deirdre
Gilbert
Star
Locke
Beto
O'Rourke
Rich
Wakeland
OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeFebruary 21–22, 2022388 (LV)± 4.9%1%5%4%78%2%11%
UT TylerFebruary 8–15, 2022479 (LV)± 4.9%2%3%4%2%2%2%68%2%14%
YouGov/UTJanuary 28 – February 7, 2022348 (LV)± 5.3%2%1%2%93%1%1%
UT TylerJanuary 18–25, 2022459 (LV)± 5.4%1%6%4%2%1%1%58%0%27%
YouGov/UHJanuary 14–24, 2022616 (LV)± 3.3%3%4%3%73%1%16%
YouGov/UT/TTOctober 22–31, 2021436 (RV)± 4.7%70%5%25%

Results

Results by county:
O'Rourke:
  •   O'Rourke—>90%
  •   O'Rourke—80–90%
  •   O'Rourke—70–80%
  •   O'Rourke—60–70%
  •   O'Rourke—50–60%
  •   O'Rourke—40–50%
Wakeland:
  •   Wakeland—40–50%
Barrientez:
  •   Barrientez—50–60%
No vote:
  •   No vote
Democratic primary results[49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticBeto O'Rourke 983,182 91.41%
DemocraticJoy Diaz33,6223.13%
DemocraticMichael Cooper32,6733.04%
DemocraticRich Wakeland13,2371.23%
DemocraticInocencio Barrientez12,8871.20%
Total votes1,075,601 100%

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Delilah Barrios, environmental activist[80]

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Mark Jay Tippetts, attorney, former Lago Vista city councilman, and nominee for governor in 2018[81]

Withdrew/disqualified

Independents and other parties

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[91]Likely RMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections[92]Solid RJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[93]Likely RJune 29, 2022
Politico[94]Likely RApril 1, 2022
RCP[95]Lean RJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News[96]Likely RMay 12, 2022
538[97]Solid RSeptember 21, 2022
Elections Daily[98]Likely RNovember 7, 2022

Debates

2022 Texas gubernatorial general election debates
No.DateHostModeratorsLinkRepublicanDemocratic
Key:

 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn

Greg AbbottBeto O'Rourke
1Sep. 30, 2022KXAN-TVSally Hernandez
Gromer Jeffers
Steve Spriester
KXAN-TVPP

Endorsements

Greg Abbott (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
State officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Beto O'Rourke (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
County officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Greg
Abbott (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Other
[j]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 3–19, 2022October 25, 202252.8%43.5%3.7%Abbott +9.3
FiveThirtyEightJune 14, 2021 – October 25, 2022October 25, 202251.4%42.9%5.7%Abbott +8.5
Average52.1%43.2%4.7%Abbott +8.9
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
OtherUndecided
CWS Research (R)[C]November 2–5, 2022786 (LV)± 3.5%53%42%2%3%
UT TylerOctober 17–24, 20221,330 (RV)± 2.9%47%44%7%[k]1%
973 (LV)± 3.4%50%44%5%[l]1%
Emerson CollegeOctober 17–19, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%52%42%1%[m]4%
53%44%3%[n]
Siena CollegeOctober 16–19, 2022649 (LV)± 5.1%52%43%2%[o]4%
Beacon Research (D)[D]October 15–19, 20221,264 (RV)± 2.8%48%45%
BSP Research/UT[E]October 11–18, 20221,400 (RV)± 2.6%46%42%3%[p]9%
YouGov/UTOctober 7–17, 2022833 (LV)± 3.3%54%43%4%[q]2%
CiviqsOctober 8–11, 2022791 (LV)± 4.0%52%44%3%[r]0%
Marist CollegeOctober 3–6, 20221,058 (RV)± 4.4%49%45%1%[s]5%
898 (LV)± 4.8%52%44%1%[t]4%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 22–26, 20221,327 (LV)± 2.7%53%46%2%[u]
Emerson CollegeSeptember 20–22, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%42%4%[v]5%
ActiVoteJune 23 – September 21, 2022323 (LV)± 6.0%47%40%12%[w]
Siena CollegeSeptember 14–18, 2022651 (LV)± 4.4%50%43%2%[x]5%
Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationSeptember 6–15, 20221,172 (LV)± 2.9%51%44%2%[y]3%
UT TylerSeptember 7–13, 20221,268 (RV)± 2.9%47%38%9%[z]2%
Data for Progress (D)September 2–9, 2022712 (LV)± 4.0%50%45%2%[aa]3%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022813 (LV)± 4.4%48%46%6%
YouGov/UTAugust 26 – September 6, 20221,200 (RV)± 2.8%45%40%4%[ab]11%
YouGov/UH/TSUAugust 11–29, 20221,312 (LV)± 2.7%49%42%2%[ac]7%
UT Tyler Archived October 31, 2022, at the Wayback MachineAugust 1–7, 20221,384 (RV)± 2.8%46%39%13%[ad]1%
1,215 (LV)± 3.0%48%42%9%[ae]1%
YouGov/UHJune 27 – July 7, 20221,169 (RV)± 2.9%47%42%2%[af]9%
1,006 (LV)± 3.1%49%44%2%[af]5%
YouGov/CBS NewsJune 22–27, 2022548 (LV)± 6.6%49%41%4%6%
YouGov/UTJune 16–24, 20221,200 (RV)± 2.8%45%39%6%[ag]10%
YouGov/PerryUndemJune 15–24, 20222,000 (RV)± 2.2%47%43%3%5%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 9–13, 20221,257 (RV)± 2.8%48%43%2%5%
Blueprint Polling (D) Archived June 13, 2022, at the Wayback MachineJune 8–10, 2022603 (LV)± 4.0%56%37%7%
UT TylerMay 2–10, 20221,232 (RV)± 3.1%46%39%14%[ah]2%
YouGov/UTApril 14–22, 20221,200 (RV)± 2.8%48%37%7%9%
YouGov/TXHPFMarch 18–28, 20221,139 (LV)± 2.9%50%42%3%[ai]5%
Texas LyceumMarch 11–20, 2022926 (RV)± 3.2%42%40%7%11%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 21–22, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%52%45%3%
UT TylerFebruary 8–15, 20221,188 (RV)± 3.1%45%38%16%1%
Climate NexusFebruary 1–9, 2022806 (LV)± 3.6%45%40%7%8%
YouGov/UTJanuary 28 – February 7, 20221,200 (RV)± 2.8%47%37%6%11%
UT TylerJanuary 18–25, 20221,072 (RV)± 3.5%47%36%16%1%
YouGov/UHJanuary 14–24, 2022– (LV)[aj][aj]48%43%3%[ak]6%
Quinnipiac UniversityDecember 2–6, 20211,224 (RV)± 2.8%52%37%4%6%
UT TylerNovember 9–16, 20211,106 (RV)± 3.2%45%39%16%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021884 (RV)± 3.3%40%39%5%7%
854 (LV)± 3.4%43%44%5%6%
YouGov/UT/TTOctober 22–31, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%46%37%7%10%
YouGov/TXHPFOctober 14–27, 20211,402 (RV)± 3.1%43%42%3%[al]12%
UT TylerSeptember 7–14, 20211,148 (RV)± 3.7%42%37%21%
UT TylerJune 22–29, 20211,090 (RV)± 3.0%45%33%22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[F]June 14–17, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%52%42%6%
Hypothetical polling
Greg Abbott vs. Julián Castro
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott (R)
Julián
Castro (D)
OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021884 (RV)± 3.3%43%35%4%9%
854 (LV)± 3.4%45%39%4%8%
Greg Abbott vs. Beto O'Rourke with Matthew McConaughey as an independent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Matthew
McConaughey (I)
OtherUndecided
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022813 (LV)± 4.4%42%39%13%6%
UT TylerNovember 9–16, 20211,106 (RV)± 3.2%37%26%27%10%
YouGov/TXHPFOctober 14–27, 20211,402 (RV)± 3.1%40%37%9%2%[am]12%
Greg Abbott vs. Don Huffines
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott (R)
Don
Huffines
Other
UT TylerJune 22–29, 20211,090 (RV)± 3.0%46%22%32%
Greg Abbott vs. Matthew McConaughey
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott (R)
Matthew
McConaughey
Other
UT TylerNovember 9–16, 20211,106 (RV)± 3.2%35%43%22%
UT TylerSeptember 7–14, 20211,148 (RV)± 3.7%35%44%21%
UT TylerJune 22–29, 20211,090 (RV)± 3.0%39%38%23%
UT TylerApril 6–13, 20211,124 (RV)± 2.9%33%45%22%
Greg Abbott vs. generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[G]September 15–22, 2020726 (LV)± 3.6%46%34%20%
Greg Abbott vs. generic opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 24–27, 2021863 (RV)± 3.3%42%51%7%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 15–21, 20211,099 (RV)± 3.0%46%48%6%

Results

2022 Texas gubernatorial election[152]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanGreg Abbott (incumbent) 4,437,099 54.76% −1.05%
DemocraticBeto O'Rourke3,553,65643.86%+1.35%
LibertarianMark Tippetts81,9321.01%−0.68%
GreenDelilah Barrios28,5840.35%N/A
American SolidarityJacqueline Abernathy1,2430.02%N/A
Total votes8,102,908 100.00% N/A
Turnout8,102,90845.85%
Registered electors17,672,143
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Abbott won 25 of 38 congressional districts.[153]

DistrictAbbottO'RourkeRepresentative
1st77.3%21.7%Louie Gohmert (117th Congress)
Nathaniel Moran (118th Congress)
2nd62.2%36.4%Dan Crenshaw
3rd59.2%39.5%Van Taylor (117th Congress)
Keith Self (118th Congress)
4th65.7%33.2%Pat Fallon
5th63.4%35.4%Lance Gooden
6th65.5%34.3%Jake Ellzey
7th35.2%63.3%Lizzie Fletcher
8th66.6%32.2%Kevin Brady (117th Congress)
Morgan Luttrell (118th Congress)
9th23%75.5%Al Green
10th61.5%37.1%Michael McCaul
11th73.7%25%August Pfluger
12th59.9%38.6%Kay Granger
13th74.7%24%Ronny Jackson
14th66.5%32.1%Randy Weber
15th52.4%46.4%Vicente Gonzalez (117th Congress)
Monica De La Cruz (118th Congress)
16th34.7%63.7%Veronica Escobar
17th64.8%33.9%Pete Sessions
18th25.2%73.3%Sheila Jackson Lee
19th76.6%22.1%Jodey Arrington
20th32.4%66.2%Joaquín Castro
21st60.8%37.8%Chip Roy
22nd59.5%39.1%Troy Nehls
23rd54.5%44.1%Tony Gonzales
24th57.6%41%Beth Van Duyne
25th67.9%30.9%Roger Williams
26th61.3%37.4%Michael Burgess
27th64%34.7%Michael Cloud
28th46.4%51.7%Henry Cuellar
29th29.9%68.4%Sylvia Garcia
30th22.1%76.9%Eddie Bernice Johnson (117th Congress)
Jasmine Crockett (118th Congress)
31st61.3%37.2%John Carter
32nd34.4%64.2%Colin Allred
33rd25.8%73%Marc Veasey
34th42.7%55.9%Mayra Flores (117th Congress)
Vicente Gonzalez (118th Congress)
35th25.7%72.7%Lloyd Doggett (117th Congress)
Greg Casar (118th Congress)
36th67.4%31.2%Brian Babin
37th21.4%77.2%Lloyd Doggett
38th60.6%37.9%Wesley Hunt

Analysis

Map of MECE (mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive) partition of Texas into 12 regions.[154]

Texas Democrats hoped for Beto O'Rourke to achieve an upset over the incumbent Greg Abbott, which did not materialize. Abbott won by 10.9%, down from 13.3% in 2018. Abbott's margin was slightly larger than aggregate polling, but virtually in line with the last poll conducted. He won the vast majority of counties (235 out of 254), mostly rural, and by significantly wide margins. In particular, 34 counties, mainly in West Texas and the Texas panhandle, gave Abbott over 90% of the vote. This was the most by any Texas Republican gubernatorial candidate, and the most for any candidate since Democrat Allan Shivers' 1954 re-election.[155]

Abbott won the three largest metro areas in the state, which include Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington in North Texas, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land in Southeast Texas, and San Antonio–New Braunfels in South-Central Texas. He also won all of the state's mid-sized metro areas outside of the Rio Grande Valley, which include Corpus Christi along the coastal bend; Waco, Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood, and Bryan–College Station in Central Texas; Beaumont–Port Arthur, Tyler and Longview in East Texas; Lubbock, Abilene, and Midland-Odessa in West Texas; and Amarillo in the Panhandle. Abbott also won an urban county, Tarrant, home to Fort Worth and did well in the suburban counties of the Texas Triangle, winning Brazoria, Galveston, and Montgomery counties around Houston; Comal and Guadalupe around San Antonio; Collin, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, and Rockwall in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex; and Williamson in Greater Austin.[156]

In DFW and Austin specifically, Republican strength has declined somewhat in these metros, with Abbott carrying Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson by 10.07%, 12.81%, 4.11%, and 0.62% respectively, down from his margins of 19.48%, 20.60%, 10.64%, and 10.71% from 2018. Excluding the largest metro areas, Abbott improved on his 2018 margins.

O'Rourke, despite his loss, did best in most of Texas's urban centers. He carried Travis, home to the state capital Austin (72.6% - 25.9%), his best performance in the state; El Paso, his home county, 63.4% - 35%; Dallas (62.8% - 35.9%); Bexar, home to San Antonio (57.5% - 41.1%); and Harris, home to Houston (54% - 44.5%). He also carried Hays, a rapidly growing county south of Austin which contains San Marcos and Texas State University along with fast-growing cities of Kyle, and Buda by 54.5% - 43.7%. Despite improving on 2018 nominee Lupe Valdez's margins in these counties, he did worse in all of them compared to his Senate campaign in 2018, and, excluding Travis and Hays, worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. The only county O'Rourke flipped was suburban Fort Bend outside Houston, which voted for Abbott by 0.2% in 2018, but voted for O'Rourke by 4.68% in this election.

Outside the Texas Triangle and Trans Pecos, the only other area O'Rourke won was heavily Hispanic South Texas along the U.S. border with Mexico. His performance was worse than Valdez's and his own from 2018, which continued the trend of rural Hispanic voters away from the Democrats towards Republicans, but he did outperform Biden from 2020. Counties that voted for Biden by single digits like Duval (2.61%), Starr (5%), and Maverick (9.45%); voted for O'Rourke 11.02%, 17.85%, and 17.68% respectively. Despite this improvement from the 2020 presidential race, Abbott flipped two heavily Hispanic counties, Zapata and Culberson (in the Trans Pecos).

Exit polls according to NBC News showed Abbott winning male (58% - 41%) and female voters (51% - 48%), whites (66% - 33%), and other races (67% - 31%), voters over 45 (60% - 39%), college graduates (52% - 47%) and non-college graduates (56% - 43%), and voters who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election (94% - 5%). O'Rourke won black voters (84% - 15%), Latinos (57% - 40%), Asians (52% - 48%), voters between 18 and 44 (54% - 44%), Independents (49%-47%) and moderates (60% - 38%).[157][158][159]

Fox News Voter Analysis exit polls showed Abbott winning male (59%-39%) and female voters (51%-48%); whites (68%-30%) and other races and ethnicities (53%-42%); voters over 45 (61%-37%); college graduates (54%-44%), non-college graduates (56%-43%); white men (70%-28%); white women (67%-32%). O'Rourke won African Americans (81%-18%), Latinos (56%-42%); African American men (76%-24%); African American women (85%-13%) and Latina women (61%-37%). O'Rourke also won Latino men (55%-45%).[160]

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls.[161] There were 4,327 total respondents.

2022 Texas gubernatorial election (CNN)[161]
Demographic subgroupAbbottO'Rourke% of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals108922
Moderates386036
Conservatives91942
Party
Democrats39730
Republicans95541
Independents474929
Age
18–24 years old31679
25–29 years old39616
30–39 years old475015
40–49 years old534516
50–64 years old613827
65 and older623727
Gender
Men584149
Women514851
Marital status
Married633663
Unmarried455437
Gender by marital status
Married men643533
Married women613829
Unmarried men494917
Unmarried women425821
Race/ethnicity
White663362
Black158412
Latino405721
Asian48523
Other67312
Gender by race
White men693030
White women643632
Black men22786
Black women9906
Latino men455310
Latina women366211
Other racial/ethnic groups57425
Education
Never attended college604012
Some college education534528
Associate degree574115
Bachelor's degree544426
Advanced degree495018
Education by race
White college graduates603931
White no college degree722731
Non-white college graduates346514
Non-white no college degree356325
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees574215
White women without college degrees702917
White men with college degrees633616
White men without college degrees752414
Non-white356439
Issue regarded as most important
Crime583611
Inflation762228
Immigration881215
Gun policy326712
Abortion198027
Abortion should be
Legal237554
Illegal92743
First-time midterm election voter
Yes435714
No554486
2020 presidential vote
Trump97250
Biden49641
OtherN/AN/A3
Did not voteN/AN/A5
Biden legitimately won in 2020
Yes257454
No94542
Area type
Urban495042
Suburban564347
Rural663211

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Harrison with 3%; Belew and Horn with 1%
  3. ^ Harrison with 3%; Belew and Horn with 0%
  4. ^ Horn with 2%; Belew and Harrison with 1%
  5. ^ Someone else with 2%, Horn with 1%
  6. ^ Belew, Harrison, and Horn with 1%
  7. ^ Horn with 2%; Belew and Harrison with 1%
  8. ^ Harrison and Horn with 1%; Belew with 0%
  9. ^ Belew, Harrison, and Horn with 1%
  10. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
  13. ^ Tippetts (L) with 1%; Barrios (G) with <1%
  14. ^ Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
  15. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Tippetts and Barrios with 1%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  19. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  20. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  22. ^ Tippetts (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 2%
  23. ^ Tippetts with 9%; Barrios with 3%
  24. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  25. ^ Barrios and Tippetts with 1%
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 6%; Barrios and Tippets with 3%
  27. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  28. ^ Tippetts with 2% and Barrios with 2%
  29. ^ Tippetts with 1% and Barrios with 1%
  30. ^ "Someone else" with 7%; Barrios and Tippetts with 3%
  31. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; Tippetts with 3%; Barrios with 2%
  32. ^ a b Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 0%
  33. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 1%
  34. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; Barrios and Tippetts with 3%
  35. ^ Tippetts with 2%, Barrios with 1%
  36. ^ a b Subsample of likely general election voters from a survey of 1,400 registered voters (overall margin of error ± 2.2% including design effect)
  37. ^ Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 1%
  38. ^ Behrman/Jewell with 2%, Barrios with 1%
  39. ^ Behrman/Jewell and Barrios with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f Poll conducted for West's campaign
  2. ^ Poll conducted for Abbott's campaign
  3. ^ Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC.
  4. ^ Poll conducted for the Democratic Policy Institute, a non-profit organization advocating for progressive causes.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Univision.
  6. ^ Poll conducted for Abbott's campaign
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund

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