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2022 NM Governor Race

2022 NM Governor Race

Summary

The 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of New Mexico. The election will coincide with various other federal and state elections. Primary elections are to be held on June 7. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham was elected in 2018 with 57.2% of the vote and is running for reelection to a second term. The Republican nominee is former meteorologist Mark Ronchetti.

Incumbent Democratic governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is running for re-election to a second term. She was first elected in 2018 with 57.2% of the vote.

Source: Wikipedia

OnAir Post: 2022 NM Governor Race

About

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[21]Lean DJune 8, 2022
Inside Elections[22]Likely DMarch 4, 2022
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[23]Lean DJanuary 26, 2022
Politico[24]Lean DApril 1, 2022
RCP[25]TossupJune 20, 2022
Fox News[26]Lean DMay 12, 2022
538[27]Likely DJune 30, 2022

Web Links

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Current Position: Governor since 2019
Affiliation: Democrat
Candidate: 2022 Governor
Former Position(s): US Representative from 2012 – 2018

Quotes:
Our commitment to science-driven policies, our successful and efficient vaccine rollout effort, and our care for our fellow New Mexicans had real results – it saved lives. Thank you, New Mexico.

For more information, go to this post.

Mark Ronchetti

Mark Ronchetti

Current Position: Meteorologist
Affiliation: Republican
Candidate: 2022 Governor

Mark V. Ronchetti (born October 1, 1973) is an American political candidate and former KRQE meteorologist. A member of the Republican Party, he was the party’s nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2020 and is the party’s nominee in the 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election.

For more information, go to this post.

Wikipedia

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For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

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The 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of New Mexico. The election coincided with various other federal and state elections. Primary elections were held on June 7.[1]

Incumbent Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham won a second term by a margin of 6.38%. She was first elected in 2018 with 57.2% of the vote. Her opponent was Republican Mark Ronchetti, who was also his party's nominee in New Mexico's 2020 U.S. Senate election.

Despite losing, Ronchetti managed to carry a congressional district that elected Democrat Gabe Vasquez in the concurrent U.S. House elections. This was the first gubernatorial election in New Mexico since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president, and the first time since 1978 that it was a Democrat.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Endorsements

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Organizations

Results

Gubernatorial Democratic primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMichelle Lujan Grisham (incumbent) 125,238 100.0%
Total votes125,238 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated

Results

Lieutenant gubernatorial Democratic primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticHowie Morales (incumbent) 117,293 100.0%
Total votes117,293 100.0%

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
Declined

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Jay
Block		Rebecca
Dow		Mark
Ronchetti		Greg
Zanetti		Other
[a]		Margin
Real Clear Politics[15]April 29 – May 19, 2022May 23, 202210.0%13.0%44.5%9.5%23.0%Ronchetti +31.5
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Jay
Block		Rebecca
Dow		Mark
Ronchetti		Greg
Zanetti		OtherUndecided
Research & Polling Inc.[16]May 15–19, 2022560 (LV)± 4.1%8%17%45%9%1%[c]21%
SurveyUSA[17]April 29 – May 7, 2022505 (LV)± 6.4%12%9%44%10%2%[d]23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[18][A]January 31 – February 1, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%2%9%60%7%3%19%

Results

Results by county:
  Ronchetti
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Dow
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Gubernatorial Republican primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMark Ronchetti 68,658 58.41%
RepublicanRebecca Dow18,18515.47%
RepublicanGregory Zanetti16,39413.95%
RepublicanJay Block12,46910.61%
RepublicanEthel Maharg1,8451.57%
Total votes117,551 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Ant Thornton, aerospace engineer[4]
Eliminated in primary
  • Peggy Muller-Aragon, member of the Albuquerque Public Schools Board of Education[4]
Eliminated at convention

Results

Results by county:
  Thornton
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Muller-Aragon
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Lieutenant gubernatorial Republican primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanAnt Thornton 64,386 59.71%
RepublicanPeggy Muller-Aragon43,43840.29%
Total votes107,824 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew

Endorsements

Ginger G. Grider
Individuals

Results

Gubernatorial Libertarian primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianKaren Bedonie 980 86.12%
LibertarianGinger G. Grider (write-in)15813.88%
Total votes1,138 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Travis Sanchez won the Libertarian primary unopposed, but withdrew to become the Libertarian nominee for New Mexico State Auditor.[21] Sanchez was replaced by Efren Gallardo Jr.

Candidates

Declared
  • Efren Gallardo Jr.[22]
Withdrew

Results

Lieutenant gubernatorial Libertarian primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianTravis Sanchez 1,175 100.0%
Total votes1,175 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[23]Lean DJune 8, 2022
Inside Elections[24]Tilt DNovember 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25]Lean DJanuary 26, 2022
Politico[26]Lean DApril 1, 2022
RCP[27]TossupJune 20, 2022
Fox News[28]TossupAugust 22, 2022
538[29]Likely DJuly 31, 2022
Elections Daily[30]Lean DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)

U.S. presidents

Federal officials

State officials

Local officials[35]

Labor unions

Organizations

Mark Ronchetti (R)

U.S. presidents

Federal officials

State officials

Sheriffs

Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Mark
Ronchetti (R)		Karen
Bedonie (L)		Other
[e]		Margin
Real Clear Politics[56]October 6–21, 2022October 21, 202247.0%43.5%–9.5%Lujan Grisham +3.5
FiveThirtyEight[57]June 14 – October 24, 2022October 24, 202248.7%41.1%4.9%5.3%Lujan Grisham +7.6
Average47.9%42.3%–7.4%Lujan Grisham +5.6

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Mark
Ronchetti (R)		Karen
Bedonie (L)		OtherUndecided
Emerson College[58]October 25–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%2%<1%[f]3%
50%48%2%<1%[g]–
Research & Polling Inc.[59][h]October 20–27, 20221,254 (LV)± 2.8%50%42%3%–5%
SurveyUSA[60]October 21–26, 2022650 (LV)± 4.9%46%39%5%–9%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[61]October 19–21, 20221,077 (LV)± 2.9%46%47%4%–4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[62]October 6–7, 2022806 (V)± 3.5%48%40%7%–6%
SurveyUSA[63]October 1–6, 2022570 (LV)± 5.8%53%37%3%–7%
Cygnal (R)[64][B]September 27–29, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%46%44%5%–5%
SurveyUSA[65]September 8–12, 2022558 (LV)± 5.7%48%36%5%–11%
Emerson College[66]September 8–11, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%43%–3%[i]5%
Research & Polling Inc.[67][h]August 19–25, 2022518 (LV)± 4.3%47%40%5%–8%
GQR Research (D)[68][C]June 11–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%48%44%5%–3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[69]June 13–14, 2022642 (V)± 3.9%45%42%9%–5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[70][A]June 11–14, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%45%46%––9%
SurveyUSA[71]April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%47%43%––11%
Cygnal (R)[72][D]January 3–4, 2022531 (LV)± 4.2%43%42%––16%
Hypothetical polling

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Jay Block

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Jay
Block (R)		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71]April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%47%37%16%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Rebecca Dow

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Rebecca
Dow (R)		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71]April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%48%36%16%
Cygnal (R)[72][D]January 3–4, 2022531 (LV)± 4.2%43%36%20%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Ethel Maharg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Ethel
Maharg (R)		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71]April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%48%32%19%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Gregory Zanetti

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Gregory
Zanetti (R)		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71]April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%48%36%16%
Cygnal (R)[72][D]January 3–4, 2022531 (LV)± 4.2%43%38%21%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[73]July 6–8, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%45%47%7%

Debates

2022 New Mexico gubernatorial general election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublicanLibertarian
Key:

 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn

Michelle Lujan GrishamMark RonchettiKaren Bedonie
1Oct. 13, 2022KOAT-TVDoug Fernandez[74]PPN

Results

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election[75]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
370,168 51.97% −5.23%
Republican
324,70145.59%+2.79%
Libertarian
  • Karen Bedonie
  • Efren Gallardo, Jr.
17,3872.44%N/A
Total votes712,256 100.0%
Turnout714,79752.38%
Registered electors1,364,559
Democratic hold

By county

By county
[76]Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democrat		Mark V Ronchetti
Republican		Karen E. Bedonie
Libertarian		Total
CountyVotes%Votes%Votes
Bernalillo141,17757.55%99,63940.62%44841.83%245,300
Catron47123.29%1,49373.84%582.87%2,022
Chaves4,06324.89%11,88472.79%3792.32%16,326
Cibola3,41849.75%3,23047.02%2223.23%6,870
Colfax2,05341.82%2,71955.39%1372.79%4,909
Curry2,51624.55%7,09269.20%6406.25%10,248
De Baca16722.03%56674.67%253.30%758
Doña Ana32,14755.69%23,21340.21%23644.10%57,724
Eddy3,37620.20%12,99677.75%3442.06%16,716
Grant6,18552.88%5,21744.60%2942.51%11,696
Guadalupe91552.56%78445.03%422.41%1,741
Harding12930.79%28066.83%102.39%419
Hidalgo64539.72%91456.28%654.00%1,624
Lea2,10415.02%11,54282.40%3622.58%14,008
Lincoln2,33427.94%5,77869.16%2432.91%8,355
Los Alamos6,19261.02%3,75136.96%2052.02%10,148
Luna2,44541.52%3,25055.19%1943.29%5,889
McKinley12,91066.27%5,79929.77%7723.96%19,481
Mora1,58464.47%83233.86%411.67%2,457
Otero5,85233.17%11,18263.38%6083.45%17,642
Quay80326.53%2,10469.51%1203.96%3,027
Rio Arriba8,03762.01%4,72936.49%1951.50%12,961
Roosevelt1,08723.32%3,17768.15%3988.54%4,662
San Juan12,84932.08%25,57463.85%16314.07%40,054
San Miguel6,53168.98%2,78529.41%1521.61%9,468
Sandoval30,78950.28%29,33747.91%11091.81%61,235
Santa Fe52,44775.35%16,28723.40%8681.25%69,602
Sierra1,78036.19%3,00161.01%1382.81%4,919
Socorro2,95048.05%2,98848.66%2023.29%6,140
Taos10,18876.33%2,96422.21%1961.47%13,348
Torrance1,58828.64%3,71266.96%2444.40%5,544
Union32821.87%1,10173.40%714.73%1,500
Valencia10,10839.70%14,78158.05%5742.25%25,463

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Lujan Grisham won 2 of 3 congressional districts with Ronchetti winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[77]

DistrictLujan GrishamRonchettiRepresentative
1st53.2%45.3%Melanie Stansbury
2nd48.4%48.7%Yvette Herrell (117th Congress)
Gabe Vasquez (118th Congress)
3rd53.9%43.7%Teresa Leger Fernandez

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Maharg with 1%
  4. ^ Maharg with 2%
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ "Someone else" with <1%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with <1%
  8. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal.
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b The poll was sponsored by Ronchetti's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Jeremy Gay, the Republican nominee for New Mexico Attorney General.
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by EDF Action
  4. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Zanetti's campaign

References

  1. ^ "Upcoming Elections". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved May 3, 2022.
  2. ^ a b "Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham will run for re-election". KOAT. June 3, 2021.
  3. ^ a b "Candidates for Governor". emilyslist.org.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "2022 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State.
  5. ^ Boyd, Dan (October 27, 2021). "Ronchetti announces gubernatorial campaign". Albuquerque Journal. Archived from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  6. ^ McKay, Dan (April 17, 2021). "Republican Commissioner Jay Block enters governor's race, seeks GOP nomination". Albuquerque Journal. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved July 4, 2021.
  7. ^ Ramirez, Chris (July 8, 2021). "Republican Jay Block wants to be New Mexico's next governor". KOB-TV. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. Retrieved August 29, 2021.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  8. ^ "Republican lawmaker enters race for New Mexico governor". KOB-TV. Associated Press. July 7, 2021. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. Retrieved August 29, 2021.
  9. ^ Block, John (August 15, 2021). "Seventh Republican, pro-life leader Ethel Maharg, running for governor". Piñon Post. Archived from the original on August 15, 2021. Retrieved December 8, 2021.
  10. ^ "Military veteran runs for New Mexico governor as Republican". KRQE. Associated Press. June 14, 2021. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  11. ^ Boetel, Ryan (August 1, 2021). "Sanchez joins GOP field for governor". Albuquerque Journal. Archived from the original on August 11, 2021. Retrieved August 29, 2021.
  12. ^ McKay, Dan (February 1, 2022). "5 Republicans seek nomination to challenge Lujan Grisham". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 1, 2022.
  13. ^ a b "Once-GOP gubernatorial candidate switches to Libertarian Party". Pinon Post. December 5, 2021. Retrieved December 9, 2021.
  14. ^ Milan Simonich (April 15, 2021). "Stumbling GOP could have been a contender". The Santa Fe New Mexican.
  15. ^ Real Clear Politics
  16. ^ Research & Polling Inc.
  17. ^ SurveyUSA Archived May 10, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  18. ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R) Archived February 3, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  19. ^ Staff Reports. "Former Doña Ana County Commissioner Isabella Solis announces run for lieutenant governor". Las Cruces Sun-News. Retrieved February 8, 2022.
  20. ^ "There is a contested primary for the Libertarian nomination for Governor of New Mexico". Facebook.
  21. ^ a b "2022 Candidates for Office". Libertarian Party of New Mexico.
  22. ^ Coker, Jonny (September 29, 2022). "Libertarian candidate Efren Gallardo, Jr. runs for Lieutenant Governor". KRWG-TV.
  23. ^ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  24. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  25. ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  26. ^ "New Mexico Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  27. ^ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  28. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  29. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  30. ^ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  31. ^ "Biden to travel to New Mexico days before midterm election". Associated Press. October 27, 2022.
  32. ^ "Obama video endorses incumbent New Mexico governor". October 27, 2022.
  33. ^ "Harris to campaign for Lujan Grisham, abortion rights". October 20, 2022.
  34. ^ "Gavin Newsom has quietly constructed one of the biggest digital forces in politics". Politico. October 28, 2022.
  35. ^ "Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham Announces Endorsements from New Mexico Mayors".
  36. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Michelle Lujan Grisham's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  37. ^ "New Mexico - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Archived from the original on November 1, 2022. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  38. ^ "Michelle Lujan Grisham — Donate via ActBlue". secure.actblue.com. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  39. ^ "Michelle Lujan Grisham - DGA". democraticgovernors.org. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  40. ^ "Giffords Endorses Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". www.giffords.org. Giffords. March 30, 2022.
  41. ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". October 26, 2022.
  42. ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". August 3, 2022.
  43. ^ "Trump endorses Mark Ronchetti for New Mexico governor". October 31, 2022.
  44. ^ "Support Mark Ronchetti now!".
  45. ^ "Press under tight control as Ronchetti rallies in Carlsbad with DeSantis and Rep. Herrell". www.lcsun-news.com. August 15, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  46. ^ "Pence campaigns for Ronchetti in Roswell". October 6, 2022.
  47. ^ "DeSantis to Hit Trail to Boost Trump-Backed Midterm Candidates". Bloomberg.com. August 8, 2022.
  48. ^ "Ronchetti campaigns with AZ governor - Albuquerque Journal".
  49. ^ "Trump Weighs in Regarding New Mexico Race for Governor".
  50. ^ "Youngkin traveling to five more states amid talk of possible 2024 bid". August 23, 2022.
  51. ^ a b c d Boyd, Dan (August 10, 2022). "Sheriffs back Ronchetti in new TV ad". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved August 18, 2022.
  52. ^ "Editorial: Ronchetti for governor - Albuquerque Journal". October 23, 2022.
  53. ^ "CatholicVote's 2022 Key Race Endorsements". CatholicVote.org. October 4, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  54. ^ "New Mexico Grades & Endorsements". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 15, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  55. ^ "Vote Freedom First. Vote Mark Ronchetti For New Mexico Governor!". nrapvf.org. Archived from the original on September 22, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  56. ^ Real Clear Politics
  57. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  58. ^ Emerson College
  59. ^ Research & Polling Inc.
  60. ^ SurveyUSA
  61. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  62. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  63. ^ SurveyUSA
  64. ^ Cygnal (R)
  65. ^ SurveyUSA
  66. ^ Emerson College
  67. ^ Research & Polling Inc.
  68. ^ GQR Research (D)
  69. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  70. ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  71. ^ a b c d e SurveyUSA
  72. ^ a b c Cygnal (R)
  73. ^ Cygnal (R)
  74. ^ Youtube
  75. ^ "2022 General New Mexico - Official Results". New Mexico Secretary of State.
  76. ^ "New Mexico Secretary of State". electionresults.sos.state.nm.us.
  77. ^ "Twitter".

Official campaign websites

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_New_Mexico_gubernatorial_election
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