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2022 IA Senate Race

2022 IA Senate Race

Summary

Seven-term Republican Chuck Grassley was re-elected in 2016 with 60.1% of the vote. He is seeking re-election to an eighth term.

State Senator Jim Carlin was defeated in the Republican primary by Grassley.

Retired Admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy, Michael Franken,defeated former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer in the Democratic primary.

Source: Wikipedia

OnAir Post: 2022 IA Senate Race

News

Iowa election 2022: Who’s running for governor, Congress and statewide offices?
Iowa Dispatch – June 13, 2022

Who’s running for Iowa’s Senate seat in 2022?
Grassley, 88, announced in September that he will run for an eighth term in the U.S. Senate. If he  wins in 2022, he will be 95 years old at the conclusion of that term. He was endorsed by former President Donald Trump last fall.

Retired U.S. Navy Adm. Mike Franken, 64, won the Democratic Senate primary. Franken said his nearly four decades of military service and rural Iowa roots would help him win over independents and some moderate Republicans in his campaign against Grassley.

Grassley has served as Iowa’s senator for over four decades. While The Des Moines Register/Mediacom’s March Iowa Poll showed declining support, election forecasters still predict he has good chances of winning again.

Franken comes into the general election with more than $250,000 cash on hand. He raised more than $2.8 million during the primary election, according to campaign finance reports. Grassley’s campaign has more than $4.3 million. Both candidates have started campaign advertising, with Franken spending nearly $1.6 million in advertising in the lead-up to the primaries.

Sen. Joni Ernst, 51, will not be up for reelection until 2026.

Chuck Grassley

Chuck Grassley

Current Position: US Senator since 1981
Affiliation: Republican
Candidate: 2022 US Senator
Former Position(s): State Senator from 1975 – 1981; State Delegate

Other Positions:  
Ranking Member, Committee on the Judiciary
Vice Chairman, Joint Committee on Taxation
Vice Chairman, United States Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control

Featured Quote: 
Does Biden want an Iranian agreement so bad that he can’t condemn Iran when they attempt to kidnap a UScitizen MsAlinejad who is fighting human rights in Iran. We must standup for the human rights we espouse

For more information, go to this post.

Michael Franken

Michael Franken

Current Position: US Senator
Affiliation: Democrat
Candidate: 2022 US Senator
Former Position(s): Retired United States Navy vice admira

Michael Thane Franken (born November 8, 1957) is an American retired United States Navy vice admiral.[1] His final posting was as deputy director of military operations for the United States Africa Command. Franken is the Democratic nominee for the 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa.

Franken was a Democratic candidate in the 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa, but lost the June 2 primary to Theresa Greenfield.

For more information, go to this post.

Wikipedia

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For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley defeated Democratic nominee Michael Franken to win re-election to an eighth term.[1]

Grassley was first elected in 1980 and was most recently re-elected in 2016. Grassley, who turned 89 years old on September 17, 2022, ran for reelection to an eighth term.[2] With U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy retiring the same year, he became the second-oldest person ever to be re-elected for another term (behind Strom Thurmond in 1996 at age 93), on January 3, 2023, upon the departure of Patrick Leahy from the United States Senate Chuck Grassley became the most senior member in the Senate, and on January 4, 2023, he became the longest-serving Republican senator in history (overtaking Orrin Hatch), as well as the most senior member of Congress since January 3, 2023.

Despite his victory, this was Grassley's closest Senate race since he was first elected in 1980 and worst performance as he did not crack 60% of the vote. Franken also beat Grassley in Linn, Story, and Polk counties, all of which Grassley had won in every election since 1986. In addition, this election was the first time that Grassley lost Black Hawk County. This election also sought the Class III seat's worst performance by a Republican since 1962, and best performance by a Democrat since 1980.

Republican primary

State Senator Jim Carlin challenged Grassley in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Fundraising

CandidateTotal receiptsCoverage ending
Chuck Grassley$6,881,288Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
Jim Carlin$508,308Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]

Results

Results by county
  Grassley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanChuck Grassley (incumbent) 143,634 73.34%
RepublicanJim Carlin51,89126.50%
Write-in3120.16%
Total votes195,837 100.0%

Democratic primary

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer was the original frontrunner in the Democratic primary, with her campaign being backed by several prominent politicians and labor unions, as well as the influential political action committee EMILY's List.[25] However, in an upset, retired vice-admiral Michael Franken managed to slowly overtake her as the perceived frontrunner, assisted by an effective campaign that highlighted his leadership credentials.[25]

Fundraising

CandidateTotal receiptsCoverage ending
Abby Finkenauer$3,740,881Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
Michael Franken$2,863,882Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]
Glenn Hurst$129,618Coverage ending: May 18, 2022[8]

Endorsements

Abby Finkenauer

U.S. Representatives

State official

State legislators

Labor unions

Organizations

Glenn Hurst

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Abby
Finkenauer		Michael
Franken		Glenn
Hurst		Undecided
Change Research (D)[40][A]May 4–8, 2022866 (LV)± 4.0%40%42%4%14%
Change Research (D)[40][A]April 6–11, 2022416 (LV)± 6.3%53%26%7%14%
GBAO (D)[41][B]March 30 – April 3, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%64%15%6%15%

Results

Results by county
  Franken
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Finkenauer
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results[9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMichael Franken 86,527 55.17%
DemocraticAbby Finkenauer62,58139.90%
DemocraticGlenn Hurst7,5714.83%
Write-in1580.10%
Total votes156,837 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[42]Solid RNovember 7, 2022
Inside Elections[43]Solid RAugust 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44]Safe RAugust 31, 2022
Politico[45]Likely ROctober 18, 2022
RCP[46]Likely ROctober 15, 2022
Fox News[47]Likely RAugust 22, 2022
DDHQ[48]Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538[49]Solid RSeptember 6, 2022
The Economist[50]Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Iowa debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanDemocratic
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Chuck GrassleyMichael Franken
1October 6, 2022Iowa PBSO. Kay Henderson[51]PP

Endorsements

Chuck Grassley (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

Individuals

Newspapers

Organization

Michael Franken (D)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Newspaper and other media

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Chuck
Grassley (R)		Michael
Franken (D)		Undecided
[b]		Margin
FiveThirtyEight[100]October 2 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202251.8%42.2%6.0%Grassley +9.6
270towin[101]October 26 – November 5, 2022November 8, 202253.0%42.7%4.3%Grassley +10.3
Average52.4%42.5%5.1%Grassley +9.9

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Chuck
Grassley (R)		Michael
Franken (D)		OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co.[102]October 31 – November 3, 2022801 (LV)± 3.5%53%41%4%[c]2%
Cygnal (R)[103][C]October 26–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%54%43%–3%
Civiqs[104]October 22–25, 2022623 (LV)± 5.2%52%44%3%[d]2%
The Tarrance Group (R)[105][D]October 15–19, 2022600 (LV)± 4.1%53%42%–4%
Change Research (D)[106][A]October 14–18, 20221,008 (LV)± 3.3%48%45%–6%
Selzer & Co.[107]October 9–12, 2022620 (LV)± 3.9%46%43%8%[e]3%
Emerson College[108]October 2–4, 2022959 (LV)± 3.1%49%38%4%9%
Cygnal (R)[109][C]October 2–4, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%54%40%–6%
Change Research (D)[110][A]September 3–8, 20221,143 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%–8%
Cygnal (R)[111][C]July 13–14, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%52%43%–5%
Selzer & Co.[112]July 10–13, 2022597 (LV)± 4.0%47%39%7%5%
Change Research (D)[113][A]June 30 – July 4, 20221,488 (LV)± 2.7%49%44%–7%
Change Research (D)[114][A]April 6–11, 20221,070 (LV)± 4.0%45%42%–13%
Hypothetical polling

Chuck Grassley vs. Abby Finkenauer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Chuck
Grassley (R)		Abby
Finkenauer (D)		OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R)[115]March 8–13, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%45%36%6%14%
Cygnal (R)[116][C]February 20–22, 2022610 (LV)± 3.9%53%39%–8%
Data for Progress (D)[117]December 2–13, 2021770 (LV)± 4.0%53%39%–8%
Cygnal (R)[118][C]October 18–19, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%55%39%–6%
Selzer & Co.[119]September 12–15, 2021620 (LV)± 3.9%55%37%1%[f]7%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanChuck Grassley (incumbent) 681,501 56.01% −4.08%
DemocraticMichael Franken533,33043.84%+8.18%
Write-in1,8150.15%+0.04%
Total votes1,216,646 100% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grassley won all 4 congressional districts.[120]

DistrictGrassleyFrankenRepresentative
1st53%47%Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2nd55%45%Ashley Hinson
3rd51%48%Cindy Axne (117th Congress)
Zach Nunn (118th Congress)
4th66%34%Randy Feenstra

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; "Don't want to tell" with 1%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  6. ^ "Would not vote" (volunteered answer) with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f This poll was sponsored by Franken's campaign
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Finkenauer's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e This poll was sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  4. ^ Poll conducted for the NRSC.

References

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  104. ^ Civiqs
  105. ^ The Tarrance Group (R)
  106. ^ Change Research (D)
  107. ^ Selzer & Co.
  108. ^ Emerson College
  109. ^ Cygnal (R)
  110. ^ Change Research (D) Archived September 13, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  111. ^ Cygnal (R)
  112. ^ Selzer & Co.
  113. ^ Change Research (D)
  114. ^ Change Research (D) Archived April 23, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  115. ^ Moore Information Group (R)
  116. ^ Cygnal (R) Archived February 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  117. ^ Data for Progress (D)
  118. ^ Cygnal (R)
  119. ^ Selzer & Co.
  120. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

Official campaign websites

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa
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