2022 CA Governor Race

2022 CA Governor Race

Summary

The 2022 California gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of California, with the statewide top-two primary election taking place on June 7, 2022. Incumbent Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is running for re-election to a second term after surviving a recall election in 2021, during his first term.

The elections will feature universal mail-in ballots and in-person voting on election day, following legislation which made the pandemic-era election format (used in all 2020 and 2021 elections in California) permanent. All statewide elected offices are currently held by Democrats. In his most recent gubernatorial race in 2018 and recall election in 2021, Newsom won with 62% of the vote and survived his recall attempt with 62% voting against the recall.

Newsom and Republican state senator Brian Dahle advanced from the “top two” primary to the general election.

 

Source: Wikipedia

OnAir Post: 2022 CA Governor Race

News

SAN FRANCISCO – As expected, Gov. Gavin Newsom cruised to a solid first-place finish in the primary election for governor, according to The Associated Press.

He will face off against Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle in the fall, making Newsom the prohibitive favorite to win a second four-year term.

Under California’s “top two” primary system, the first and second-place finishers in all statewide races, regardless of party, face off in November.

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom

Current Position: Governor since 2019
Affiliation: Democrat
Candidate: 2022 Governor
Former Position(s): Lt. Governor from 2010 – 2018; Mayor San Francisco from 2003 – 2010

Quotes:

The California Dream — the idea that every person can achieve a better life, regardless of where they start out — is central to who we are as Californians.  Even in a time of economic growth and record employment, too many Californians are experiencing the squeeze of stagnant wages and the rising price of building-block necessities such as housing, health care, education, and child care. We can and must reanimate the California Dream, building a California for All.

Whether you’re walking your dog, going to the movies, or headed to the store—Californians should feel safe. We’re tackling organized retail crime head on, investing in public safety, and reducing gun violence—all while tackling the root causes of crime.

For more information, go to this post.

Brian Dahle

Brian Dahle

Current Position: State Senator for District 1
Affiliation: Republican
Candidate: 2022 Governor

Brian Dwain Dahle (born September 20, 1965) is an American politician, serving in the California State Senate for the 1st district since 2019. A member of the Republican Party, Dahle served as the Minority Leader of the California State Assembly, while representing the 1st Assembly district. Prior to his election to the state legislature, Dahle was a farmer and Lassen County Supervisor.

On June 4, 2019, Dahle won a special election to fill the State Senate seat vacated by Ted Gaines, who resigned after his election to the California Board of Equalization. After joining the State Senate, his wife Megan Dahle was elected to his vacated Assembly seat. Dahle is the Republican nominee for Governor of California in the 2022 gubernatorial election.

For more information, go to this post.

Wikipedia

The 2022 California gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of California, with the statewide top-two primary election taking place on June 7, 2022.[1] Incumbent Democratic Party Governor Gavin Newsom was re-elected to a second term after surviving a recall election in 2021, during his first term.

The elections featured universal mail-in ballots; in-person voting was also available.[2] All statewide elected offices are currently held by Democrats. Newsom won 61.9% of the vote in both the 2018 gubernatorial election and the 2021 recall election. He received 55.9% of the top-two primary vote and faced Republican Party state senator Brian Dahle, who received 17.7% of the primary vote, in the general election.[3]

Newsom received 59.2% of the vote to Dahle's 40.8%, a smaller margin of victory than in 2018 and the smallest since 2010. Dahle flipped five counties that Newsom carried in 2018, namely Lake, Merced (which had voted to recall Newsom in 2021), Orange, San Bernardino, and San Joaquin. Dahle received 32% of the vote in Los Angeles County, the highest percentage received by a Republican in the state's most populous county since 2014.[4] Dahle also managed to carry two congressional districts represented by Democrats (CA-09 and CA-47). This election marks the fourth consecutive California gubernatorial election in which a Democratic candidate won.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Anthony Fanara, restaurant owner[6]
  • Armando Perez-Serrato, businessman and candidate in the 2021 recall election[6]
  • Joel Ventresca, former Service Employees International Union committee member, retired airport analyst and perennial candidate[a][6]

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Ronald A. Anderson, contractor and businessman[6]
  • Gurinder Bhangoo (write-in)[8]
  • Shawn Collins, U.S. Navy veteran and attorney[9]
  • Ron Jones, former police officer[6]
  • Jenny Rae Le Roux, entrepreneur and candidate in the 2021 recall election[6]
  • David Lozano, attorney and candidate in the 2021 recall election[6]
  • Daniel R. Mercuri, businessman, candidate in the 2021 recall election and for California's 25th congressional district in 2020[6]
  • Cristian Raul Morales, manufacturing executive[6]
  • Robert C. Newman, psychologist and candidate in the 2021 recall election[6]
  • Lonnie Sortor, business owner[6]
  • Anthony Trimino, entrepreneur and candidate in the 2021 recall election[10]
  • Major Williams, entrepreneur and write-in candidate in the 2021 recall election[11]
  • Leo S. Zacky, businessman, broadcaster, and candidate in the 2021 recall election[6]

Declined

Green Party

Eliminated in primary

American Independent Party

Eliminated in primary

  • Jeff Scott (write-in)[8]

No party preference

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Endorsements

Brian Dahle (R)
James G. Hanink (NPP)

Political Parties

Individuals

Luis J. Rodriguez (G)
Michael Shellenberger (NPP)

Organizations

Individuals

Primary election

The list of candidates was announced on Mar 31, 2022 by the secretary of state.[45]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
(R) Ronald Anderson
(G) Heather Collins
(R) Shawn Collins
(R) Brian Dahle
(D) Anthony Fanara
(I) Serge Fiankan
(I) James Hanink
(R) Ron Jones
(R) Jenny Rae Le Roux
(R) David Lozano
(R) Daniel Mercuri
(R) Cristian Raul Morales
(R) Robert Newman II
(D) Gavin Newsom
(D) Armando Perez-Serrato
(G) Luis Javier Rodriguez
(I) Woodrow Sanders III
(I) Frederic Schultz
(I) Reinette Senum
(I) Michael Shellenberger
(R) Lonnie Sortor
(R) Anthony Trimino
(D) Joel Ventresca
(R) Major Williams
(R) Leo Zacky
(I) Bradley Zink
Undecided
Berkeley IGS[46]May 24–31, 20223,438 (LV)± 2.2%1%0%3%10%1%0%0%1%2%1%1%0%1%50%1%1%0%0%0%5%0%3%1%2%1%0%16%
SurveyUSA[47]May 13–15, 2022709 (LV)± 4.5%7%2%5%7%5%0%0%2%1%2%1%1%1%40%1%0%0%0%0%2%1%1%1%1%1%0%18%

Results

Results by county
  Newsom
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Dahle
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Primary results[48]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticGavin Newsom (incumbent) 3,945,728 55.9
RepublicanBrian Dahle 1,252,800 17.7
No party preferenceMichael Shellenberger290,2864.1
RepublicanJenny Rae Le Roux246,6653.5
RepublicanAnthony Trimino246,3223.5
RepublicanShawn Collins173,0832.5
GreenLuis J. Rodriguez124,6721.8
RepublicanLeo S. Zacky94,5211.3
RepublicanMajor Williams92,5801.3
RepublicanRobert C. Newman II82,8491.2
DemocraticJoel Ventresca66,8850.9
RepublicanDavid Lozano66,5420.9
RepublicanRonald A. Anderson53,5540.8
No party preferenceReinette Senum53,0150.8
DemocraticArmando Perez-Serrato45,4740.6
RepublicanRon Jones38,3370.5
RepublicanDaniel R. Mercuri36,3960.5
GreenHeather Collins29,6900.4
DemocraticAnthony Fanara25,0860.4
RepublicanCristian Raul Morales22,3040.3
RepublicanLonnie Sortor21,0440.3
No party preferenceFrederic C. Schultz17,5020.2
No party preferenceWoodrow Sanders III16,2040.2
No party preferenceJames G. Hanink10,1100.1
No party preferenceSerge Fiankan6,2010.1
No party preferenceBradley Zink5,9970.1
American IndependentJeff Scott (write-in)130.0
RepublicanGurinder Bhangoo (write-in)80.0
Total votes7,063,868 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[49]Solid DOctober 26, 2022
Inside Elections[50]Solid DNovember 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[51]Safe DNovember 7, 2022
Politico[52]Solid DApril 1, 2022
RCP[53]Safe DJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News[54]Solid DMay 12, 2022
538[55]Solid DNovember 8, 2022
Elections Daily[56]Safe DNovember 7, 2022

Debates

Governor Gavin Newsom and State Senator Brian Dahle met on October 23 for their only debate.[57]

2022 California gubernatorial debate
No.DateHostModeratorsLinkParticipants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn
Gavin NewsomBrian Dahle
1October 23, 2022KQEDScott Shafer
Marisa Lagos
YouTube[58]PP

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Gavin
Newsom (D)
Brian
Dahle (R)
Other
[c]
Margin
Real Clear Politics[59]September 22 – October 23, 2022November 3, 202255.0%34.3%10.7%Newsom +20.7
FiveThirtyEight[60]September 2 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202259.6%38.7%1.7%Newsom +20.9
270ToWin[61]October 27 – November 7, 2022November 8, 202257.4%37.0%5.6%Newsom +20.4
Average57.3%36.7%6.0%Newsom +20.6

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Gavin
Newsom (D)
Brian
Dahle (R)
OtherUndecided
Research Co.[62]November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%56%37%7%
USC[63]October 30 – November 2, 2022802 (RV)± 3.5%62%38%
UC Berkeley[64]October 25–31, 20225,972 (LV)± 2.0%58%37%4%
ActiVote[65]July 29 – October 27, 2022200 (LV)± 7.0%61%39%
Public Policy Institute of California[66]October 14–23, 20221,060 (LV)± 5.4%55%36%4%[d]5%
SurveyUSA[67]October 7–10, 20221,013 (LV)± 4.4%57%35%8%
UC Berkeley[68]September 22–27, 20226,939 (LV)± 2.5%53%32%2%[e]13%
Public Policy Institute of California[69]September 2–11, 20221,060 (LV)± 5.4%58%31%5%[f]7%
UC Berkeley[70]August 9–15, 20229,254 (RV)± 2.0%52%25%4%19%
6,321 (LV)± 2.4%55%31%3%11%
Hypothetical polling

Gavin Newsom vs. Kevin Faulconer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Gavin
Newsom (D)
Kevin
Faulconer (R)
Undecided
Berkeley IGS[71]August 30 – September 6, 20219,809 (RV)± 2.3%49%27%24%

Gavin Newsom vs. John Cox

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Gavin
Newsom (D)
John
Cox (R)
Undecided
Berkeley IGS[71]August 30 – September 6, 20219,809 (RV)± 2.3%51%26%23%

Gavin Newsom vs. Larry Elder

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Gavin
Newsom (D)
Larry
Elder (R)
Undecided
Berkeley IGS[71]August 30 – September 6, 20219,809 (RV)± 2.3%52%30%18%

Gavin Newsom vs. Kevin Kiley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Gavin
Newsom (D)
Kevin
Kiley (R)
Undecided
Berkeley IGS[71]August 30 – September 6, 20219,809 (RV)± 2.3%50%25%25%

Results

2022 California gubernatorial election[72][73]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticGavin Newsom (incumbent) 6,470,104 59.18% −2.77
RepublicanBrian Dahle4,462,91440.82%+2.77
Total votes10,933,018 100.00% N/A
Turnout10,933,01850.80%−12.48
Registered electors21,940,274
Democratic hold

By county

[74]

By county
CountyGavin Newsom
Democratic
Brian Dahle
Republican
MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%
Alameda387,04679.32100,92320.68286,12358.64487,969
Alpine36358.6425641.3610717.29619
Amador6,02732.3112,62867.69-6,601-35.3818,655
Butte31,50243.4940,93956.51-9,437-13.0372,441
Calaveras7,10333.4414,13766.56-7,034-33.1221,240
Colusa1,55327.924,00972.08-2,456-44.165,562
Contra Costa265,37168.31123,13231.69142,23936.61388,503
Del Norte3,26438.975,11161.03-1,847-22.058,375
El Dorado34,53438.9554,13761.05-19,603-22.1188,671
Fresno98,41744.92120,66855.08-22,251-10.16219,085
Glenn1,93024.346,00075.66-4,070-51.327,930
Humboldt29,54161.8018,25738.2011,28423.6147,798
Imperial16,71155.9513,15844.053,55311.9029,869
Inyo3,38245.234,09554.77-713-9.547,477
Kern69,70636.94119,00663.06-49,300-26.13188,712
Kings9,38934.8917,52365.11-8,134-30.2226,912
Lake9,77148.5410,36051.46-589-2.9320,131
Lassen1,44415.757,72684.25-6,282-68.519,170
Los Angeles1,620,05367.81769,17432.19850,87935.612,389,227
Madera13,28335.9423,67864.06-10,395-28.1236,961
Marin95,28980.0323,77519.9771,51460.06119,064
Mariposa2,94437.554,89662.45-1,952-24.907,840
Mendocino19,03162.6111,36337.397,66825.2330,394
Merced25,20045.5930,07354.41-4,873-8.8255,273
Modoc68720.132,72579.87-2,038-59.733,412
Mono2,49354.562,07645.444179.134,569
Monterey65,26263.9036,86736.1028,39527.80102,129
Napa32,43764.7317,67135.2714,76629.4750,108
Nevada26,65552.5424,08247.462,5735.0750,737
Orange464,20648.51492,73451.49-28,528-2.98956,940
Placer73,61940.43108,45059.57-34,831-19.13182,069
Plumas3,08335.715,55064.29-2,467-28.588,633
Riverside285,00047.83310,90152.17-25,901-4.35595,901
Sacramento274,68057.51202,93342.4971,74715.02477,613
San Benito10,42853.269,15046.741,2786.5319,578
San Bernardino215,39147.39239,10952.61-23,718-5.22454,500
San Diego574,12155.78455,10744.22119,01411.561,029,228
San Francisco257,40285.3844,06414.62213,33870.77301,466
San Joaquin85,49848.2291,82751.78-6,329-3.57177,325
San Luis Obispo61,16651.1358,46448.872,7022.26119,630
San Mateo185,59974.9861,91825.02123,68149.97247,517
Santa Barbara80,64859.5754,72640.4325,92219.15135,374
Santa Clara379,37770.01162,51829.99216,85940.02541,895
Santa Cruz79,11775.9525,05224.0554,06551.90104,169
Shasta18,60727.1649,91372.84-31,306-45.6968,520
Sierra52934.281,01465.72-485-31.431,543
Siskiyou6,32635.6911,39764.31-5,071-28.6117,723
Solano77,76959.5452,85040.4624,91919.08130,619
Sonoma140,04170.9257,41329.0882,62841.85197,454
Stanislaus55,31142.2375,65657.77-20,345-15.53130,967
Sutter9,08232.3119,02467.69-9,942-35.3728,106
Tehama5,02424.3515,60775.65-10,583-51.3020,631
Trinity1,86041.092,66758.91-807-17.834,527
Tulare33,27336.4358,05363.57-24,780-27.1391,326
Tuolumne8,47136.4714,75963.53-6,288-27.0723,230
Ventura153,22654.54127,70945.4625,5179.08280,935
Yolo44,32866.0322,80733.9721,52132.0667,135
Yuba6,53433.2813,09766.72-6,563-33.4319,631
Totals6,470,10459.184,462,91440.822,007,19018.3610,933,018

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Newsom won 38 of 52 congressional districts, with the remaining 14 going to Dahle, including two that elected Democrats.[75]

DistrictNewsomDahleRepresentative
1st33%67%Doug LaMalfa
2nd71%29%Jared Huffman
3rd43%57%Kevin Kiley
4th63%37%Mike Thompson
5th37%63%Tom McClintock
6th54%46%Ami Bera
7th64%36%Doris Matsui
8th74%26%John Garamendi
9th48%52%Josh Harder
10th65%35%Mark DeSaulnier
11th86%14%Nancy Pelosi
12th90%10%Barbara Lee
13th46%54%John Duarte
14th68%32%Eric Swalwell
15th76%24%Jackie Speier (117th Congress)
Kevin Mullin (118th Congress)
16th73%27%Anna Eshoo
17th71%29%Ro Khanna
18th68%32%Zoe Lofgren
19th65%35%Jimmy Panetta
20th30%70%Kevin McCarthy
21st51%49%Jim Costa
22nd48%52%David Valadao
23rd39%61%Jay Obernolte
24th59%41%Salud Carbajal
25th53%47%Raul Ruiz
26th54%46%Julia Brownley
27th49%51%Mike Garcia
28th63%37%Judy Chu
29th73%27%Tony Cárdenas
30th75%25%Adam Schiff
31st58%42%Grace Napolitano
32nd66%34%Brad Sherman
33rd55%45%Pete Aguilar
34th82%18%Jimmy Gomez
35th55%45%Norma Torres
36th67%33%Ted Lieu
37th85%15%Karen Bass (117th Congress)
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (118th Congress)
38th58%42%Linda Sánchez
39th55%45%Mark Takano
40th45%55%Young Kim
41st45%55%Ken Calvert
42nd67%33%Lucille Roybal-Allard (117th Congress)
Robert Garcia (118th Congress)
43rd78%22%Maxine Waters
44th69%31%Nanette Barragán
45th49%51%Michelle Steel
46th60%40%Lou Correa
47th49.7%50.3%Katie Porter
48th38%62%Darrell Issa
49th50.4%49.6%Mike Levin
50th61%39%Scott Peters
51st60%40%Sara Jacobs
52nd63%37%Juan Vargas

Notes

  1. ^ Candidate for San Francisco Board of Supervisors in 1977, 1979, and 2002, candidate for Mayor of San Francisco in 1995, 1999, and 2019, and candidate in the 2021 recall election
  2. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ "Neither/Would not vote" with 4%
  5. ^ "Other (write-in)" with 2%
  6. ^ "Would not vote" with 5%
  1. ^ Hanink was listed on the ballot as "no party preference" and listed in the official Voter Information Guide as "no qualified party preference" because the party with which Hanink was registered, the American Solidarity Party, did not have ballot access at the time the ballot was printed.[17][18][19][20]

See also

References

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  3. ^ "California Governor Primary Election Live Results 2022". NBC News. Retrieved October 3, 2022.
  4. ^ Nicole Nixon (November 8, 2022). "Democrat Gavin Newsom sails to reelection as California governor". npr.org. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  5. ^ White, Jeremy B. (January 21, 2022). "What 2022 election? California Republicans grim on beating Newsom". Politico. Retrieved February 17, 2022.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s "Primary Election - June 7, 2022". Archived from the original on March 26, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  7. ^ Garofoli, Joe (February 7, 2022). "Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle to announce challenge to Gavin Newsom". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved February 8, 2022.
  8. ^ a b "Official Certified List of Write-In Candidates - June 7, 2022" (PDF). California Secretary of State. May 27, 2022. Retrieved May 30, 2022.[permanent dead link]
  9. ^ "FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — GOP GOVERNOR CHALLENGER". Politico. Retrieved March 8, 2022.
  10. ^ "Gubernatorial candidate Anthony Trimino sees himself as a problem solver, not a politician". KUSI. February 5, 2022.
  11. ^ Hearden, Tim (February 11, 2022). "GOP's Sen. Dahle upbeat about bid for governor". Western Farm Press.
  12. ^ White, Jeremy B. (January 4, 2022). "Larry Elder will not run against Newsom in 2022". Politico. Retrieved January 4, 2022.
  13. ^ Brennan, Deborah Sullivan (March 10, 2022). "Kevin Faulconer steps out of governor's race". The San Diego Union-Tribune. Retrieved March 18, 2022.
  14. ^ Ross, Martha (February 27, 2021). "California may get Kimberly Guilfoyle back, running for public office". Mercury News. Retrieved August 17, 2021.,
  15. ^ Hansen, BJ (December 29, 2021). "Republican Assemblyman Kiley Running For Eastern Sierra Congressional Seat". My Mother Lode. Retrieved January 4, 2022.,
  16. ^ Rodriguez, Luis (February 2022). "Luis J. Rodriguez is running for California Governor". People's Tribune. Retrieved March 28, 2022.
  17. ^ Spielmann, Cristobal; Backer-Peral, Veronica (May 6, 2021). "Former LMU professor runs for governor in recall election". Los Angeles Loyolan. Retrieved July 12, 2021.
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  24. ^ Hampton, Adriel [@adrielhampton] (September 1, 2021). "I declared for California Governor in the fall of 2019 in order to shame Facebook for its political ad practices. Today, I'm formally withdrawing from the 2022 race, and calling on Gavin Newsom to step down as Governor for the good of our state" (Tweet). Archived from the original on September 1, 2021. Retrieved September 4, 2021 – via Twitter.
  25. ^ Mehta, Seema (April 24, 2022). "California GOP endorses Brian Dahle for governor despite controversy over payment to party". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved April 25, 2022.
  26. ^ "American Solidarity Party of California". Retrieved May 27, 2022 – via Facebook.
  27. ^ Carroll, Brian. "Brian Carroll, Commentaries". Retrieved May 31, 2022 – via Facebook.
  28. ^ Maturen, Mike. "Mike Maturen Hfi". Retrieved May 31, 2022 – via Facebook.
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  42. ^ "Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association PAC Endorses Michael Shellenberger for Governor". Shellenberger for Governor. April 21, 2022. Retrieved April 21, 2022.
  43. ^ Murray, Douglas [@DouglasKMurray] (June 4, 2022). "Great to meet you Michael ⁦@ShellenbergerMD⁩. And good luck with the race for Governor. Rooting for you!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  44. ^ Pinker, Steven [@sapinker] (May 19, 2022). "As a temporary Californian, I endorse Michael Shellenberger @ShellenbergerMD for governor in the upcoming open primary - independent, evidence-driven, non-ideological policies to deal with climate, homelessness, energy, conservation, violent crime" (Tweet). Retrieved May 20, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  57. ^ "Newsom Agrees to Debate Dahle in Gubernatorial Forum at KQED". KQED. Archived from the original on October 23, 2022. Retrieved October 23, 2022.
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  71. ^ a b c d Berkeley IGS
  72. ^ "General Election - Statement of the Vote, November 8, 2022" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
  73. ^ "NOVEMBER 8, 2022, GENERAL ELECTION - VOTER PARTICIPATION STATISTICS BY COUNTY" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 19, 2022. Retrieved December 21, 2022.
  74. ^ "November 8, 2022, General Election Governor" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved July 27, 2024.
  75. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

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