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2022 AZ Senate Race

2022 AZ Senate Race

Summary

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly was elected in a 2020 special election with 51.2% of the vote and is running for reelection to a full term. The seat had been held by Republican John McCain, who was reelected to the seat in 2016. McCain died on August 25, 2018, and Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and was replaced by former U.S. Representative Martha McSally, who then lost to Kelly in 2020.

Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2. Kelly was renominated unopposed, whereas venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a wide field of candidates.

Source: Wikipedia

OnAir Post: 2022 AZ Senate Race

About

Web Links

Mark Kelly

Mark Kelly

Current Position: US Senator since 2021
Affiliation: Democrat
Former Position(s): Astronaut from 1996 – 2011

Quotes:
Modern, robust infrastructure allows communities to thrive and economic opportunity to grow. I’m working with local leaders across Arizona to understand the priorities for each community as we work on a bipartisan infrastructure agreement in the Senate. @CaptMarkKelly

Blake Masters

Blake Masters

Current Position: Venture Capitalist
Affiliation: Republican
Candidate: 2022 US Senator

Blake Gates Masters (born August 5, 1986) is an American venture capitalist, political candidate, and author. Masters co-wrote Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future with Peter Thiel in 2014, based on notes Masters had taken at Stanford Law School in 2012.

Masters was later chief operating officer of Thiel’s hedge fund, Thiel Capital, and also president of the Thiel Foundation. He has frequently been referred to as Thiel’s protégé.

Source: Wikipedia

Wikipedia

Edit links

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2022 Arizona Senate election.

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died from glioblastoma on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.

Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign.[1] On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.[2][3][4]

Kelly won re-election, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points.[5] This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress.[6][7] Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.[8]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Mark Kelly

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S Attorneys

Local officials

Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[24][25]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMark Kelly (incumbent) 589,400 100.0%
Total votes589,400 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not file

  • Craig Brittain[31]
  • Robert Paveza, software engineer[32]

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Brnovich

Individuals

Newspapers

Jim Lamon

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Statewide officials

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Former[clarification needed]

Blake Masters

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Rejected by candidate

Justin Olson

Organizations

  • Stand for Health Freedom[65]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Mark
Brnovich		Jim
Lamon		Blake
Masters		Michael
McGuire		Justin
Olson		Undecided
[a]		Margin
Real Clear Politics[66]July 27 – August 1, 2022August 2, 202214.5%22.0%37.0%8.5%3.3%17.7%Masters +15.0

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Brnovich		Jim
Lamon		Blake
Masters		Michael
McGuire		Justin
Olson		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[67]July 30 – August 1, 20221,064 (LV)± 2.9%16%24%39%7%4%–9%
Emerson College[68]July 28–30, 2022600 (LV)± 3.9%14%22%40%12%3%–9%
Rasmussen Reports[69]July 27–28, 2022710 (LV)± 4.0%16%19%31%10%3%6%15%
OH Predictive Insights[70]July 27, 2022502 (LV)± 4.4%12%21%36%5%3%–22%
Battleground Connect (R)[71]July 26–27, 2022800 (LV)± 3.7%16%30%28%8%6%–12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[72]July 25–27, 20221,071 (LV)± 2.9%15%27%35%8%6%–10%
Battleground Connect (R)[73]July 17–18, 2022800 (LV)± 3.7%16%33%28%7%2%–14%
Cygnal (R)[74]July 12–13, 2022419 (LV)± 4.8%18%20%30%5%2%–25%
Battleground Connect (R)[75]July 7–9, 2022800 (LV)± 3.7%16%29%27%4%––24%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[76]July 2–7, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%13%14%23%5%2%–44%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners[77]July 5–6, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%10%14%26%5%0%–45%
OH Predictive Insights[78]June 30 – July 2, 2022515 (LV)± 4.3%14%18%25%6%2%–35%
Public Policy Polling (D)[79]June 28, 2022595 (LV)± 4.0%15%10%29%5%––41%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[80]June 7–9, 20221,077 (LV)± 2.9%24%17%29%4%4%–22%
Data Orbital (R)[81]June 1–3, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%18%20%15%––12%36%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[82][A]May 17–18, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%18%18%22%7%2%–34%
Cygnal (R)[83][B]April 28–30, 2022– (LV)–19%20%19%7%2%–33%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[84]April 25–28, 20221,064 (LV)± 3.0%24%25%19%8%3%–21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[85][C]April 21–24, 2022– (LV)–22%25%16%6%––31%
OH Predictive Insights[86]April 4–5, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%21%16%9%6%3%–45%
Data Orbital (R)[87]April 1–3, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%20%26%10%7%4%–33%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[88]March 26–27, 2022264 (LV)± 6.0%11%10%6%4%–8%61%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[89][A]March 13–14, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%14%14%16%3%1%–52%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners[90]March 9–12, 2022433 (LV)± 4.7%20%15%15%3%1%–45%
Data Orbital (R)[87]March 2022– (LV)–23%17%14%4%5%–37%
Data Orbital (R)[87]February 11–13, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%22%17%15%5%5%–37%
co/efficient (R)[91]February 6–8, 2022755 (LV)± 3.6%17%13%12%3%1%11%44%
OH Predictive Insights[92]January 11–13, 2022302 (RV)± 5.6%25%7%6%11%4%–47%
OH Predictive Insights[93]November 1–8, 2021252 (RV)± 6.2%27%5%9%12%2%–46%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[94][A]October 26–28, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%26%4%14%2%2%<1%[c]52%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[95][D]September 9–12, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%41%5%7%4%––43%
OH Predictive Insights[96]September 7–12, 2021311 (RV)± 5.6%27%3%6%14%––51%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[94][A]August 4–8, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%29%7%5%3%–<1%[c]56%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[97]May 3–5, 2021400 (LV)± 4.9%28%–1%1%––61%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Kirk
Adams		Andy
Biggs		Mark
Brnovich		Doug
Ducey		Jim
Lamon		Blake
Masters		Michael
McGuire		Justin
Olson		OtherUndecided
co/efficient (R)[91]February 6–8, 2022755 (LV)± 3.6%––14%13%11%11%3%1%9%38%
OH Predictive Insights[92]January 11–13, 2022302 (RV)± 5.6%––13%35%4%4%9%2%–34%
WPA Intelligence (R)[98][E]April 5–6, 2021505 (LV)± 4.4%–46%–45%–––––9%
OH Predictive Insights[99]March 8–12, 2021690 (RV)± 3.7%2%[d]27%–––2%3%––67%
6%[e]26%–––2%10%––56%
Data Orbital (R)[100][F]February 17–19, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%36%––1%1%3%–4%53%

Results

Republican primary results by county
  Masters
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Lamon
  •   30-40%
Republican primary results[24][25]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanBlake Masters 327,198 40.24%
RepublicanJim Lamon228,46728.10%
RepublicanMark Brnovich144,09217.72%
RepublicanMichael McGuire71,1008.75%
RepublicanJustin Olson41,9855.16%
Write-in2260.03%
Total votes813,068 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Marc Victor, attorney and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[101] (withdrew from general election, endorsed Blake Masters)[2]

Results

Libertarian primary results[24][102][25]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianMarc Victor 3,065 100.0%
Total votes3,065 100.0%

General election

In what was initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million.[103] Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors who use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters.[104] Steven J. Law, the leader of a Republican-aligned super PAC, said that Masters "had scored the worst focus group results of any candidate he had ever seen," and cancelled all of its Arizona television advertisements supporting Masters to divert money to other races.[105]

With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups increased the amount of money they were spending on the race and polls began to tighten, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate.[106] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.[107]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[108]TossupOctober 27, 2022
Inside Elections[109]Tilt DOctober 21, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[110]Lean DOctober 19, 2022
Politico[111]TossupOctober 27, 2022
RCP[112]TossupOctober 25, 2022
Fox News[113]TossupOctober 25, 2022
DDHQ[114]Lean DOctober 25, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[115]Lean DOctober 25, 2022
The Economist[116]Lean DNovember 1, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Arizona debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublicanLibertarian
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Mark KellyBlake MastersMarc Victor
1October 6, 2022Arizona PBSTed Simons[117]PPP

Endorsements

Mark Kelly (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Attorneys

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Blake Masters (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Governors

Local officials

Party officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Rejected by candidate

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Mark
Kelly (D)		Blake
Masters (R)		Undecided
[f]		Margin
RealClearPolitics[163]October 30 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202248.0%48.3%3.7%Masters +0.3
FiveThirtyEight[164]September 7, 2021 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202248.6%47.1%4.3%Kelly +1.5
270ToWin[165]November 3–7, 2022November 7, 202247.9%46.6%5.5%Kelly +1.3
Average48.3%47.2%4.5%Kelly +1.1

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Blake
Masters (R)		Marc
Victor (L)		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[166]November 5–7, 20221,094 (LV)± 2.9%47%48%1%–4%
Data Orbital (R)[167]November 4–6, 2022550 (LV)± 4.3%48%47%2%1%[g]3%
Research Co.[168]November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%49%46%2%–3%
Data for Progress (D)[169]November 2–6, 20221,359 (LV)± 3.0%49%50%2%––
Targoz Market Research[170]November 2–6, 2022560 (LV)± 4.1%50%47%2%––
KAConsulting (R)[171][G]November 2–3, 2022501 (LV)± 4.4%47%46%–1%6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[172]November 2, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%48%48%2%–2%
HighGround Inc.[173]November 1–2, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%46%45%–2%[h]6%
Remington Research Group (R)[174]November 1–2, 20221,075 (LV)± 2.9%48%47%2%–3%
Marist College[175]October 31 – November 2, 20221,157 (RV)± 4.1%49%45%–1%[i]8%
1,015 (LV)± 4.3%50%47%–1%[j]2%
Big Data Poll (R)[176]October 31 – November 2, 20221,051 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%––4%
Patriot Polling (R)[177]October 30 – November 2, 2022814 (RV)–49%48%––4%
Civiqs[178]October 29 – November 2, 2022852 (LV)± 4.2%49%49%–2%[k]1%
November 1, 2022Victor withdraws from the race and endorses Masters
Emerson College[179]October 30 – November 1, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%48%3%1%[l]1%
48%48%3%1%[m]–
The Phillips Academy[180]October 29–30, 2022985 (LV)± 3.1%47%47%2%–5%
Fox News[181]October 26–30, 20221,003 (RV)± 3.0%47%45%–4%[n]5%
Wick Insights (R)[182]October 26–30, 20221,122 (LV)± 3.2%49%47%–3%[o]1%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[183][E]October 24–26, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%47%46%3%––
OH Predictive Insights[184]October 24–26, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%3%–3%
Siena College/NYT[185]October 24–26, 2022604 (LV)± 4.4%51%45%1%–3%
BSP Research/Shaw & Co.[186][H]October 19–26, 20221,000 (RV)± 3.1%44%40%–5%[p]11%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[172]October 24–25, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%45%43%6%–6%
co/efficient (R)[187]October 20–21, 20221,111 (LV)± 3.1%47%45%4%–4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[188][I]October 14–18, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%48%45%2%<1%[q]6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[189][J]October 16–17, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%47%46%3%–4%
Data for Progress (D)[190]October 11–17, 2022893 (LV)± 3.0%47%47%3%–4%
Wick Insights (R)[191]October 8–14, 20221,058 (LV)± 3.1%49%46%–2%[r]3%
HighGround Inc.[192][K]October 12–13, 2022500 (LV)± 4.3%42%40%5%3%[s]10%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[193]October 11, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%46%42%5%–7%
Kurt Jetta (D)[194][L]October 9–10, 2022894 (RV)–54%32%––15%
551 (LV)55%38%––7%
Ascend Action (R)[195]October 8–10, 2022954 (LV)± 3.2%48%44%–5%[t]2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[196][M]October 8–10, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%4%–7%
OH Predictive Insights[197]October 4–6, 2022674 (LV)± 3.8%46%33%15%–7%
Big Data Poll (R)[198]October 2–5, 2022970 (LV)± 3.1%46%45%2%–7%
YouGov/CBS News[199]September 30 – October 4, 20221,164 (RV)± 3.8%51%48%––1%
CNN/SSRS[200]September 26 – October 2, 2022900 (RV)± 4.4%52%42%–7%[u]–
795 (LV)± 4.6%51%45%–4%[v]–
Fox News[201]September 22–26, 20221,008 (RV)± 3.0%46%40%–6%[w]9%
Suffolk University[202]September 21–25, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%42%2%–7%
Marist College[203]September 19–22, 20221,260 (RV)± 3.6%51%41%––8%
1,076 (LV)± 3.9%50%45%––5%
Data for Progress (D)[204]September 15–19, 2022768 (LV)± 4.0%48%47%2%–3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[205]September 14–17, 20221080 (LV)± 2.9%47%45%3%–5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[206]September 8–15, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%50%42%4%–4%
52%45%––3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[196][M]September 6–11, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%50%40%6%–5%
Kurt Jetta (D)[207][L]September 9–10, 2022972 (RV)± 3.5%53%32%––15%
563 (LV)55%35%––9%
OH Predictive Insights[208]September 6–9, 2022654 (LV)± 3.8%47%35%6%–12%
Emerson College[209]September 6–7, 2022627 (LV)± 3.9%47%45%–3%[x]5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[210]September 6–7, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%45%39%4%–12%
Echelon Insights[211]August 31 – September 7, 2022773 (RV)±4.5%52%37%––11%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[212]August 24–27, 20221,074 (LV)± 2.9%48%44%4%–4%
RMG Research[213]August 16–22, 2022750 (LV)± 3.6%50%43%––7%
Fox News[214]August 12–16, 20221,012 (RV)± 3.0%50%42%–2%6%
Kurt Jetta (D)[215][L]August 4–8, 20221,107 (A)± 2.9%48%34%––19%
877 (RV)± 3.3%50%34%––16%
512 (LV)± 4.3%54%40%––7%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[216][N]August 1–2, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%49%44%––7%
Beacon Research (D)[217][O]July 5–20, 2022802 (RV)± 3.5%49%34%–1%13%
504 (LV)± 4.4%51%39%–2%8%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A]July 13–14, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%49%44%––7%
Change Research (D)[219][P]June 24–27, 2022705 (LV)± 3.7%48%39%––13%
Blueprint Polling (D)[220]May 12–16, 2022608 (LV)± 4.0%49%32%––19%
OH Predictive Insights[96]September 7–12, 2021882 (RV)± 3.3%44%35%––21%
Hypothetical polling

Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Mark
Brnovich (R)		OtherUndecided
Beacon Research (D)[217][O]July 5–20, 2022802 (RV)± 3.5%49%35%1%11%
504 (LV)± 4.4%51%40%2%7%
Blueprint Polling (D)[220]May 12–16, 2022608 (LV)± 4.0%50%33%–18%
Data for Progress (D)[221]January 21–24, 20221,469 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%–4%
OH Predictive Insights[96]September 7–12, 2021882 (RV)± 3.3%43%39%–18%
OH Predictive Insights[222]May 3–5, 2021935 (RV)± 3.2%46%36%–18%

Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Jim
Lamon (R)		OtherUndecided
Beacon Research (D)[217][O]July 5–20, 2022802 (RV)± 3.5%48%34%2%14%
504 (LV)± 4.4%50%40%2%9%
Change Research (D)[219][P]June 24–27, 2022705 (LV)± 3.7%47%41%–12%
Blueprint Polling (D)[220]May 12–16, 2022608 (LV)± 4.0%48%34%–18%
OH Predictive Insights[96]September 7–12, 2021882 (RV)± 3.3%43%36%–21%

Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Michael
McGuire (R)		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[96]September 7–12, 2021882 (RV)± 3.3%44%37%19%
OH Predictive Insights[222]May 3–5, 2021935 (RV)± 3.2%44%35%21%

Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Andy
Biggs (R)		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[222]May 3–5, 2021935 (RV)± 3.2%47%36%18%

Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Doug
Ducey (R)		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[221]January 21–24, 20221,469 (LV)± 3.0%50%47%4%

Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Kelli
Ward (R)		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[222]May 3–5, 2021935 (RV)± 3.2%47%36%18%

Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[222]May 3–5, 2021935 (RV)± 3.2%46%35%19%

Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Jack
McCain (R)		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[222]May 3–5, 2021935 (RV)± 3.2%43%29%28%

Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Kimberly
Yee (R)		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[222]May 3–5, 2021935 (RV)± 3.2%45%35%19%

Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Generic
Republican		OtherUndecided
OH Predictive Insights[223]May 9–16, 2022938 (RV)± 3.3%40%39%–21%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)[224]March 26–27, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%45%41%2%12%
OH Predictive Insights[225]March 7–15, 2022753 (RV)± 3.6%37%39%–24%
Change Research (D)[219][P]March 2022– (LV)–43%46%–11%
OH Predictive Insights[92]January 11–13, 2022855 (RV)± 3.4%42%38%–19%
OH Predictive Insights[93]November 1–8, 2021713 (RV)± 3.7%40%39%–21%

Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly (D)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A]July 13–14, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%45%48%7%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R)[218][A]July 13–14, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%46%46%8%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona[226]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticMark Kelly (incumbent) 1,322,027 51.39% +0.23%
RepublicanBlake Masters1,196,30846.51%−2.30%
LibertarianMarc Victor (withdrawn)53,7622.09%N/A
Write-in1970.01%-0.02%
Total votes2,572,294 100.0%
Democratic hold

By county

By county
CountyMark Kelly
Democratic		Blake Masters
Republican		Marc Victor
Libertarian		Write-inMarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%
Apache18,00567.398,16330.555492.0520.019,84236.8426,719
Cochise20,00242.5725,53954.351,3832.94670.14-5,537-11.7846,991
Coconino35,14963.8418,69733.961,1992.18130.0216,45229.8855,058
Gila7,98435.4213,95861.916012.6710.00-5,974-26.5022,544
Graham3,24329.797,38867.872552.3400.00-4,145-38.0810,886
Greenlee97039.401,39256.541004.0600.00-422-17.142,462
La Paz1,71130.943,65666.111602.8930.05-1,945-35.175,530
Maricopa809,57352.19710,49145.8031,0992.00630.0099,0826.391,551,226
Mohave21,04025.6958,73771.722,1172.5850.01-37,697-46.0381,899
Navajo18,72446.0820,97051.619272.2890.02-2,246-5.5340,630
Pima248,23061.95144,93636.177,5441.88150.00103,29425.78400,725
Pinal62,00942.9278,82054.553,6502.5370.00-16,811-11.64144,486
Santa Cruz8,98868.163,89229.523042.3120.025,09638.6513,186
Yavapai45,25836.6075,75261.262,6332.1380.01-30,494-24.66123,651
Yuma21,14145.6623,91751.661,2412.6820.00-2,776-6.0046,301
Totals1,322,02751.391,196,30846.5153,7622.091970.01125,7194.892,572,294

By congressional district

Kelly won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[227]

DistrictKellyMastersRepresentative
1st52%46%David Schweikert
2nd47%51%Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress)
Eli Crane (118th Congress)
3rd76%21%Ruben Gallego
4th57%41%Greg Stanton
5th44%54%Andy Biggs
6th54%44%Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress)
Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress)
7th68%30%Raúl Grijalva
8th46%52%Debbie Lesko
9th38%60%Paul Gosar

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b Paveza with <1%
  4. ^ Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
  5. ^ Response with candidates' job titles
  6. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  8. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  9. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  10. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  14. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  17. ^ "Other" with <1%; "Refused" with <1%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  19. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  20. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  21. ^ "Neither" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
  22. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  23. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign for governor
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Lamon's campaign
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
  5. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee
  7. ^ Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
  8. ^ Poll conducted for Univision.
  9. ^ Poll conducted for The Federalist, a conservative online magazine.
  10. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by Arizona's Family
  12. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Masters
  13. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by the Sentinel Action Fund, which supports Masters
  14. ^ This poll was sponsored by America Next
  15. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  16. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund

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Official campaign websites

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona
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